We’ve got two genuine premiership threats facing off in Thursday night footy, with Hawthorn hosting Sydney at the MCG in Round 2.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans
This shapes as a cracking contest, although it has lost some shine with the Swans missing both Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney.
Hawthorn bounced back from their Round 0 loss with a strong win over Essendon, while Sydney sit atop the ladder after Round 1. However, injuries and a short five-day break present a real challenge as they head to the MCG.
LEG 1 - Hawthorn -19.5
The Swans are hit hard with the absence of All Australian duo Gulden and Heeney.
Hawthorn’s ability to control space at the MCG was on full display last week, and they’ve been dominant at the ground since mid-2024. The Hawks are 14-4 from their last 18 at the MCG, covering in 13 of those, and have covered 10 of their last 13 as favourites at the venue.
Sydney, meanwhile, have struggled at the MCG since the 2022 Grand Final, going just 3-8 and covering in only four of their last 11.
LEG 2 - James Sicily 20+ Disposals
Sicily has started 2026 in strong form, averaging 24.5 disposals across his first two games.
After a down year in 2025, he looks back to his best. Between 2022 and 2024, Sicily hit 20+ disposals in 83% of games.
He’s also had 20+ in each of his last five games against the Swans.
LEG 3 - Chad Warner 20+ Disposals
With Heeney and Gulden out, Warner’s midfield role should expand significantly.
He’s been used more forward this season, but that luxury likely disappears here. Expect a sharp increase in his centre bounce attendances from the ~40% we’ve seen so far.
In his last 14 games with 60%+ CBA, Warner averages 25.1 disposals and has hit 20+ in all 14.
LEG 4 - Tom Papley 1+ Goals
Papley remains one of the most reliable small forwards in the competition.
He’s kicked at least one goal in nine of his last ten games at the MCG, and has scored in five of his last six against Hawthorn.
With an 82% career strike rate as an anytime goal scorer, it would be a surprise to see him go goalless in consecutive weeks.
Same Game Multi
Hawthorn -19.5 / Sicily 20+ Disposals / Warner 20+ Disposals / Papley 1+ Goals = $5.60
