The Hawks head down to their second home in Tasmania where they’ve built a dominant record over recent years, but they’ll get a genuine test from an in-form Adelaide side.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows
Hawthorn have been slightly off their best over the past few weeks, recording one draw and two losses from their last three games.
Now they return to UTAS Stadium, where they last tasted victory back in Round 7.
Adelaide arrive in strong form, winning five of their last six matches, and they pushed Hawthorn all the way at this venue last season.
Leg 1 - Hawthorn 1-39
UTAS Stadium continues to be one of the strongest home-ground advantages in football for Hawthorn.
The Hawks have won their last 11 matches at the venue and have covered the line in 12 of their last 13 games there.
Interestingly, the one game they failed to cover was against Adelaide last season when the Crows lost by just three points.
Hawthorn have also won four of their last five meetings against Adelaide overall.
Still, the Crows have been competitive as underdogs throughout 2026, covering the line in three of five games in that role, with the Brisbane loss the clear outlier.
Expect Hawthorn to get the job done at home, but this shapes as another tight contest rather than a blowout.
Leg 2 - Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals
Jai Newcombe wasn’t quite at his dominant best against Melbourne last week, but this matchup sets up perfectly for a bounce-back performance.
Adelaide are conceding the second most clearances per game in the AFL this season, while Newcombe ranks among the league’s elite clearance players at 7.5 per game.
When Hawthorn faced Gold Coast earlier this season — the AFL’s worst clearance defence statistically — Newcombe exploded for 30 disposals.
This matchup profiles similarly for the Hawks midfielder.
Leg 3 - James Sicily 20+ Disposals
James Sicily continues to be one of the most reliable disposal accumulators in the competition from defence.
The Hawthorn skipper is averaging 22.2 disposals per game in 2026 and has recorded 20+ disposals in eight of his nine matches this season.
His role within Hawthorn’s ball movement remains critical, particularly at UTAS where the Hawks love controlling possession across half-back.
Leg 4 - Josh Rachele 1+ Goals
Josh Rachele’s brief midfield experiment appears to be over for now, with Matthew Nicks increasingly deploying him as a permanent small forward.
Against North Melbourne last week, Rachele attended a season-low 9% of centre bounces and responded by kicking three goals.
Across the last three weeks, he has attended fewer than 20% of centre bounces in each game while kicking seven goals in total.
He has also kicked at least two goals in all three of those matches.
With his forward role now firmly established again, Rachele should continue finding scoreboard opportunities.
Same Game Multi
Hawthorn 1-39 / Newcombe 25+ Disposals / Rachele 1+ Goals / Sicily 20+ Disposals = $5.90
