Our best bet for Thursday's AFL Qualifying Final between Fremantle and Hawthorn is the Fremantle 1-39 / Gunston 2+ Goals / Frederick 1+ Goals / Ward 20+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $5.50, with the Dockers 12-0 at Optus Stadium this season and Josh Ward hitting 20+ disposals in 16 of his last 17 games.
The minor premiers kick off our Qualifying Finals, when the Dockers look to make it 13 from 13 at Optus Stadium this season when they host the Hawks.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks
The Dockers return to their fortress at Optus Stadium, and a win against the Hawks here would lock in a home Preliminary Final.
It's been close between the Dockers and Hawks in recent times, but Fremantle have come out on top in their last three meetings.
With Amiss, Reid, Chapman and Switkowski returning, will they once again defend their home ground?
Leg 1 - Fremantle 1-39
The Dockers have dominated at Optus Stadium this season, with a 12-0 record, including a coverage rate of 75%.
Although taking the line is tempting, the 1-39 appears to be better value. They've played six of the top-eight teams at Optus Stadium this season, and the coverage rate is just 50% against those teams despite going 6-0. All six games were decided in the 1-39 bracket, including their 15-point win over the Hawks during the season.
Despite a strong win-loss record for the Hawks this season, they've got the second worst coverage rate in the league, and in their two games as underdogs this season they've lost both. I think the Fremantle preparation will be too much for Hawthorn.
Leg 2 - Jack Gunston 2+ Goals
I think it might be the biggest deficiency in Fremantle's lineup, and Luke Ryan got horribly exposed by Gunston when they met earlier in the year.
Gunston ended up with six goals and was way too good for both Ryan and Brennan Cox, the latter not an option on Thursday night.
He has kicked 2+ goals in 14 of his 17 games this season, and 3+ is still going at a 71% strike rate.
Leg 3 - Michael Frederick 1+ Goals
The Hawks concede plenty of ball to high half forwards, so I think Michael Frederick will get his opportunities.
You can make a case that Michael Frederick played the best game of his career last time he played Hawthorn, with a career-high 19 disposals to go with three goals.
He has kicked at least one goal in 12 of his 18 games this season, and at home he's 7 from 9.
Leg 4 - Josh Ward 20+ Disposals
Has consistently found footy for the Hawks this season.
Josh Ward has hit 20+ disposals in 19 of his 23 games this season, but it's his recent form which has been most encouraging, hitting this mark in 16 of his last 17 games.
During this stretch he's averaged 23.5 disposals, while from Round 13 onwards that average jumps up to 24.3. Should be busy in this Qualifying Final once again.
Same Game Multi
Fremantle 1-39 / Gunston 2+ Goals / Frederick 1+ Goals / Ward 20+ Disposals = $5.50
