We’ve got a Grand Final rematch on Thursday night, with Geelong heading to the Gabba as underdogs despite last week’s impressive win over Collingwood.
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats
Brisbane were victorious the last time these two teams met, running over the top of Geelong in the second half of the 2025 Grand Final.
Both sides remain among the AFL’s top tier in 2026, currently sitting fourth and fifth on the ladder respectively.
It’s Geelong’s recent form that stands out, however, with a last-quarter rampage against North Melbourne followed by a demolition of Collingwood.
How will the Cats perform when they return to the Gabba for this Grand Final rematch?
Leg 1 - Geelong +15.5
I think Geelong can make this much tighter than the market suggests.
The Cats have covered the line in six of their last nine against Brisbane, and if we go back to 2014 they’ve covered in 16 of 21 meetings.
More importantly, Geelong has a strong recent record at the Gabba.
They’ve won five of their last nine at the venue against Brisbane and covered in eight of those nine, including their two most recent losses there in 2023 and 2025.
Leg 2 - Jack Martin 1+ Goals
Martin has put together a solid season for Geelong inside forward 50.
He has kicked a goal in each of his last seven games and has 11 goals for the season, including two in each of his last two matches.
Small forwards have found opportunities against Brisbane recently as the Lions continue to patch holes in their depleted back six.
Hayward and Ainsworth combined for five goals last week, and Martin should get his chances here.
Leg 3 - Will Ashcroft 25+ Disposals
When assessing Geelong matchups, it often starts with who Oisin Mullin tags.
I expect Mullin to go to Hugh McCluggage here, after doing a strong job on him in last year’s qualifying final.
That should open the door for Will Ashcroft to take on more of the midfield load.
Ashcroft has recorded 25+ disposals in six of nine games this season, including three of his last four.
He also dominated this matchup last year, averaging 30.8 disposals across four games against Geelong and clearing 25+ in all four.
Leg 4 - Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals
Geelong has restricted general defenders well this season, but designated kickers have still found enough football against them.
That keeps Zorko firmly in play.
He started the season in brilliant form before suffering an injury against North Melbourne in Round 6.
If we remove that injury-affected game, Zorko is averaging 27.2 disposals this season, with last week against Carlton his only miss under 25.
He also averaged 31 disposals across four games against Geelong last season, clearing 25+ in all four.
Same Game Multi
Geelong +15.5 / Ashcroft 25+ Disposals / Martin 1+ Goals / Zorko 25+ Disposals = $5.10
