Round 7
Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies
July 16th (Thursday 8.10pm) Optus Stadium
Thursday night footy takes us to Perth for a game against two teams that have played each other in the last two years of finals. Expect this game to be a slog fest with thunderstorms throughout the game. The WA government has allowed 30k into the stadium for this game, first time this year a large number of fans have been allowed in. With the rainy conditions I believe that plays into the Cats hands as they are a tough team who plays contested ball. Dangerfield and Selwood will thrive on these conditions. Gary Ablett turned back the clock last weekend vs the Lions kicking 2 goals and setting up 2 more. If he gets off the chain for 10 mins he can open this game right open. Pies had a good win vs the Hawks last weekend and welcome back a superstar in De Goey, they need to start well and Mason Cox needs to be a target up forward for the Pies, crash contests. Jack Steven is back for the Cats with Duncan out with a hamstring injury. Cats by 10 for me.
H2H
Geelong have won three of the last five games vs the Pies
Best Bet
Cats +3.5 $1.90
Cats win $2.15
Essendon Bombers vs Western Bulldogs
July 17th (Friday 7.40pm) Metricon Stadium
The Bombers had a good win last weekend against a North side that threw everything at them. They played tough footy and deserved the win. The win came at a cost with Dylan Shiel their best midfielder picking up a two game suspension for a head high hit, which will hurt the Bombers because he has been very good this year at setting up their attack from the middle. It is a big night for Merrett and Smith if those two can get their hands on the ball and use their elite kicking skills it could set up a famous Bombers win. Dogs on the other hand last weekend had no answers for the Blues they never looked like winning the game and with the performance they dished up Beveridge has swung the axe and dropped four including Schache who hasn’t said boo since joining the Dogs. The Dogs need their forwards to step up and especially Josh Bruce who was quiet last weekend after kicking 6 goals the week before. I am tipping the Dogs to bounce back and beat the Bombers this weekend, as mentioned before Shiel is a huge out.
H2H
Dogs have won five of the last five games vs the Bombers
Best Bet
Dogs +1.5 $1.90
Dogs win $1.95
GWS Giants vs Brisbane Lions
July 18th (Saturday 1.45pm) Giants Stadium
Match of the round this one two teams coming off losses last weekend who need to bounce back and have a win. I believe there's more at stake for the Giants here if they lose it will be tough for them to fire back up and compete for the top 4. Brisbane have the luxury of going back to Brisbane to play 4-5 home games and they rarely lose at the Gabba. Tom Morris AFL so called Journo said the Giants are seriously looking at dropping the Captain Coniglio for this game after his slow start to the year….please Tom the bloke had 22 touches last weekend and was nowhere near their worst. Expect Coniglio to fire up and have a blinder good players rise to the top. Lions need more from their forwards in Hipwood and Mcstay not much presence last weekend vs the Cats so expect a better showing. Giants welcome back Taranto who missed a few games due to a shoulder injury. I am tipping the Giants only because it is at Giants stadium and they play the ground so well.
H2H
Giants have won four of the last five games vs the Lions
Best Bet
Giants -4.5 $1.90
Giants win $1.75
Sydney Swans vs Gold Coast Suns
July 18th (Saturday 4.35pm) SCG
Danger game here for the Suns. They have played very good football but lost a game last weekend vs the Demons which they should have won. I hope this isn’t a sign of things to come as they usually take their foot off the gas this time of the year and lose the next 6. During the week they re-signed Coach Stuart Dew for another two years so he must be doing something right. The Swans last week played the most boring football I have ever seen but I am all for it with a side that is missing their two key forwards in Franklin and Mccartin to keep the premiers to 35 points is a big tick in my books and if they bring that pressure this weekend they can beat the Suns. They are back at the SCG which they play so well, they bring back Alir Alir and Sinclair but lose Heeney for the year (no real big loss). I am tipping a Swans win here good weather for Saturday as well which will play into their hands.
H2H
Swans have won four of the last five games vs the Suns
Best Bet
Swans +5.5 $1.90
Swans win $2.15
Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
July 18th (Saturday 7.40pm) Metricon Stadium
Are the Tigers back to their best? Two wins on the trot after a slow start to the season maybe they are maybe they aren’t. I expect them this weekend to destroy the Kangaroos who in my eyes are going backwards. The Tigers were held last weekend against a very defensive side in the Swans, so expect their forwards to get off the chain and destroy the Kangaroos backline. If Dusty can pop up and get a few early touches his confidence will be flowing and look for him to get forward to kick a few snags. I can’t find a positive at the moment for the Kangaroos who at this stage don’t look like beating anyone. They have brought Ziebell and Wood back who both butcher the football, they need elite ball skill players in their side and those two aren’t that. Tigers have made no changes, with that saying Tom Lynch is playing with a broken hand and could be a late out. Tigers by 30+
H2H
North have won three of the last five games vs the Tigers
Best Bet
Tigers -9.5 $1.90
Tigers 1-39 $1.95
Carlton Blues vs Port Adelaide Power
July 19th (Sunday 1.10pm) Gabba
If you looked at this game 3 weeks ago you would think easy win for the Power but the Blues have risen from the clouds and have strung two wins together and I honestly think they can test the Power this weekend. If they bring that intensity they brought last weekend vs the Dogs they can win this weekend. On the back of Cripps leading from the middle the Blues are a force going forward. Casbult has found a second wind up forward and can bomb them from a long way. The Power are no easy beats and are top of the ladder for a reason beating the Giants last weekend it pays to have good players with good skills in the side. Hartlett and Butters are elite by foot and never miss a target and that sets up Dixon to kick goals. I would still like to see more from Charlie. He has the ability to kick 6 every game but goes missing too many times. If he can get a lot more consistency the Power could be unstoppable. Will be a good game but I think the Power will have to much class for the Blues this weekend. Blues the Line is a nice bet.
H2H
Power have won three of the last five games vs the Blues
Best Bet
Blues +15.5 $1.90
Power 1-39 $1.95
Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons
July 19th (Sunday 3.35pm) Giants Stadium
Two old rivals going at it this weekend and god do the Hawks need a win. One of their golden boys Jordan Lewis said does Clarkson the coach still have it in him to coach on. Clarko loves this situation and if you don’t see a hungry and aggressive Hawks side on the weekend I will be very surprised. They lost one of their marking forwards in Patton last weekend but they are a better player when he doesn’t play, Gunston is more than capable of playing the key forward and is a dead eye dick in front of the sticks. The Dees had a nice win against the Suns but it was nothing more. They are still miles off the competition and if they are to beat the Hawks this weekend they will need everything to go right. I still can’t believe they are paying Lever and May 750k a year those two are miles off the other best defenders of the comp. Burgoyne and Lewis are back for the Hawks while the Demons lose Mcdonald but bring back Tomlinson who was dropped last weekend for a poor start to the year, another player Goodwin brought in who adds nothing. Hawks by 30+
H2H
Melbourne have won three of the last five games vs the Hawks
Best Bet
Hawks win $1.73
Hawks 1-39 $2.10
Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles
July 19th (Sunday 6.35pm) Optus Stadium
The Derby will round out the Sunday matches and boy does it look a good contest against the old rivals. The Eagles have had the wood over the Dockers not losing since 2015. The Dockers are already a star down with Nat Fyfe re-injuring his hamstring last week in the win against the Saints. Makes you think why he is surfing with Mick Fanning and not resting up and giving himself every chance of playing this weekend. The Eagles left the hub with a good win against the Crows and will take that form into this weekend. Nic Nat was on fire last weekend giving the mids every chance to get the clearance. Shuey is back so that adds another gear to an already star studded midfield. Tim Kelly found form last weekend he is my smokey for the medal on the weekend. Look on form and team sheets the Eagles should win this game by the length of the Flemington straight but it is a Derby and this season has thrown up so many upsets so I wouldn’t rule the Dockers out yet. Josh Kennedy is playing game 250 so the Eagles would love to make him a winner in this game. Eagles by 10.
H2H
Eagles have won five of the last five games vs the Dockers
Best Bet
Dockers +16.5 $1.90
Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints
July 20th (Monday 7.40pm) Adelaide Oval
The round rounds out on a Monday night for two teams that need a win badly. The Saints were up by 45 points last weekend and blew the lead to lose to Freo which shows that haven’t improved much since last year. The Crows need a win just to get on the winners list and this is the weekend they can do it. They are back at their home ground which will give them confidence. No team lists are out yet as it is a Monday game so I can’t comment on who is in or out. If the Crows are to win though they need to start well. They have been shocking at starting games this year but a good start can set up a victory this weekend. Ben Long is out for the Saints hit with a three week ban for his hit on Sean Darcy, I thought it was 1 week if that protected himself and first to the ball. Crows at the line this weekend.
H2H
Crows have won five of the last five games vs the Saints
Best Bet
Crows +17.5 $1.90
