Round 5
Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints
July 2nd (Thursday 7.40pm) Marvel Stadium
The AFL has changed the Thursday fixture from Eagles vs Tigers to Blues vs Saints due to a few covid-19 issues. It is well deserved for these two sides have battled for the spoon over the last few years but now are playing competitive football. The Blues had a hard fought win against the Bombers last Saturday night and this was set up by Cripps and Cunningham who won hard possession football early in the game. Levi Casboult has become the Blues most important player and if he plays well tonight the Blues will win. The Saints on the other hand beat a Richmond side who has lost its way a little. The Saints hard running and elite ball skills destroyed the Tigers and they were no match for them. Brad Hill has been the pick up of the offseason, he runs all day and never misses a target when going forward. This game will be a hard fought contest but on paper I am tipping the Saints to win. It is also a massive advantage for the Saints to be playing at Marvel Stadium. They play the ground very well and will look to exploit the Blues on the wings. Saints by 15+
H2H
Saints have won four of the last five games vs the Blues
Best Bet
Saints -6.5 $1.90
Saints win $1.65
Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers
July 3rd (Friday 7.50pm) MCG
Big outs for the Pies this weekend with arguably their best defender Jeremy Howe being ruled out for the season with a bad knee injury and then we have Steele Sidebottom ruled out due to breaking Covid-19 rules. Two big outs but I believe the Pies can overcome these two being out and still be a force in season 2020. They nearly pinched a famous victory last weekend vs the Giants but fell at the final hurdle. The Bombers on the other hand were pathetic vs a Carlton side that aren’t much chop themselves. They butchered the ball and had no direction when going forward. They are crying out for a key marking forward and would love Joe Daniher to come into the side asap. I am still with the Pies here even though they have a few out, De Goey needs to stand up and take ownership of this side as he hasn’t been on for the last few weeks but we know with him he only needs a few moments to turn a game on its head. Pies in a close one.
H2H
Pies have won four of the last five games vs the Bombers
Best Bet
Bombers +12.5 $1.90
West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans
July 4th (Saturday 1.45pm) Metricon Stadium
Do or die clash for the Eagles this weekend if they want to have any shot at season 2020 they must get a move on and it starts this weekend. They were again slow out of the blocks vs the Power last weekend and if it wasn’t for Josh Kennendy up forward they would have kicked two goals for the game. Their mids needs to start this engine and get the ball moving forward from the first use because Nic Nat doesn’t lose centre bounces. They come up against a Swans side who would be annoyed they didn’t push the Bulldogs a lot closer last weekend. Swans are already at a disadvantage with their two ruckmen Sinclair and Naismith missing so it will be a busy weekend for the Swans mids. If the Eagles lose this fixture its season over and people will be asking the question were they right in getting Kelly and giving up all those draft picks, time will tell but at the moment it looks like they gave up too much. In saying that I am tipping the Eagles to get a win.
H2H
Sydney have won four of the last five games vs the Eagles
Best Bet
Eagles -9.5 $1.90
Eagles 1-39 $1.95
Geelong Cats vs Gold Coast Suns
July 4th (Saturday 4.40pm) GMHBA Stadium
Two milestones this weekend for two Cats that will go on to be two of the best to ever pull on the Jersey. Joel Selwood plays 300 and it has been 300 of the best, never taken a back step and is a bull at the football. Gary Ablett plays game 350, son of god he has been a truly remarkable player for the Cats over the years and it is only fitting that he plays his 350 game against a side he played for as well in the Gold Coast Suns. The Suns are flying but this is the first time that they have to play a team away from home so expect a much more physical game this weekend. On this night I can’t see the Suns winning the Cats will be up and about and will want to give Selwood and Ablett the match winning game they deserve. Chris Scott has said he will send a tagger to play on Rowell this weekend which makes for interesting viewing as Rowell has had leather poisoning for the last 4 weeks. Cats by 20+
H2H
Best Bet
Cats have won four of the last five games vs the Suns
Cats -19.5 $1.90
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
July 4th (Saturday 7.40pm) Marvel Stadium
This game on Saturday night will be a cracker as both teams who have had up and down starts to the year face off at both their home grounds under Saturday night lights. Bulldogs had a great win last weekend vs a tough Sydney side they were led by Bontempelli who was on fire from the get go and single handedly pulled his side clear in the first half. If the Kangaroos can stop his influence on the game then it will give the Kangaroos any chance of winning this game. The Kangaroos nearly pinched the win last weekend vs the Hawks and if it wasn’t for bad kicking the Kangaroos would have won. They need to start well vs the Bulldogs and not let teams kick away by 4-5 goals and then try to peg them back as they are leaving their run too late. I am tipping the Dogs to win this on recent form but I wouldn’t be surprised if North snatched the win from the Doggies in a close one.
H2H
The Bulldogs have won three of the last five games vs the Kangaroos
Best Bet
Dogs -6.5 $1.90
Dogs win $1.67
Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power
July 4th (Saturday 7.40pm) Gabba
Match of the round takes us to the Gabba on Saturday night for a clash against two teams who have enjoyed the Hub life. The Power were dominant last weekend against a soft West Coast side and the Lions had too much class for a Crows side that is lacking everything. This game will be won in the midfield, the Power has so much speed and power running through the midfield at the moment and they look unstoppable, in saying that they haven’t been up against much so this weekend they will get to test themselves. The Lions on the other hand are dominating up forward and Charlie Cameron is on fire and it looks like at the moment that no one can stop him. It is a shame that Zorko will miss this weekend's game with a calf/hamstring injury and that is a big blow to the Lions as he adds a huge spark in their midfield. I am tipping the Lions to win this game as it is at their home ground and they play the Gabba so well.
H2H
Power have won three of the last five games vs the Lions
Best Bet
Lions win $1.85
Lions -1.5 $1.90
Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows
July 5th (Sunday 1.05pm) Metricon Stadium
A game against two sides that have been shocking in season 2020 and they have been handed the shocking time slot of 1.05 on a Sunday for their efforts. The Crows haven’t looked like winning a game in season 2020 but I believe this weekend could be their week. The Dockers have no Nat Fyfe who looks set to miss the next 3 weeks with a hamstring injury so that could open the door for a Crows win. It starts with the effort for the Crows; they are a side that has lacked that in season 2020 and their leaders are to blame for this with no effort around the contest and look very slow and tired when competing for the ball. The Dockers on the other hand have been bullied around the contest in the last few weeks and need to take a stand against the Crows. In a positive Jesse Hogan looks to be getting back to his best forward. Will be a slog fest for both these sides but I am tipping a Crows win, Taylor Walker to kick a bag.
H2H
Crows have won four of the last five games vs the Dockers
Best Bet
Crows -8.5 $1.90
Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers
July 5th (Sunday 3.35pm) MCG
As I mentioned before with this being a do or die clash for the Eagles the same can be said for the Tigers when they play the Demons if they don’t win this game then I can’t see them competing for the Flag in season 2020. They have been shocking over the last few weeks and look disinterested in playing the game. Their stars Cotchin and Martin haven’t got out of first gear and look like they are carrying injuries and their forward line is so out of touch at the moment. In saying that they get a good fixture against the Demons this weekend who themselves are in shocking form and don’t look like beating anyone these days. I am tipping the Tigers to come out and win this game by 40+. They have too much class around the ball and will look to exploit the Demons down back. If the Tigers midfield get on top early it will be good night Melbourne.
H2H
Tigers have won four of the last five games vs the Demons
Best Bet
Tigers +10.5 $1.90
Tigers 1-39 $1.97
GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
July 5th (Sunday 6.10pm) Giants Stadium
Last game of the round and it looks like it will be a cracker. Both teams are coming off good wins last weekend against good opposition and it will be hot in the kitchen early come Sunday afternoon. The Giants had a great win last weekend vs the Pies and Toby Greene was the x factor the Giants needed after he missed the week before with a knee injury. The Hawks on the other hand took the foot of the gas in the last qtr vs the Roos and were lucky to scrap together for the win. I am expecting this game to be won from defence. The Hawks love setting up their attack from defence and that is led by Sicily so if he can get off the chain and use his damaging kick to go forward it will set up the Hawks attack. The Giants on the other hand will look to use Coniglio and Ward to set up their attack when going forward, both mids are goal kicking mids so if the Hawks don’t pay close attention to them it will be good night Hawks. Jeremy Cameron is my x factor player in this contest. Look for him to kick a bag and for the Giants to win this and win this well.
H2H
Best Bet
Giants have won three of the last five games vs the Hawks
Giants -7.5 $1.90
Giants 1-39 $2
