AFL Round 5
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers, Marvel Stadium, 15th April 7.20pm
Saints had a great come-from-behind win last weekend against the Eagles. Down by 35 points halfway through the third quarter, the Saints ended up winning by 20 points. I am still not sold on the Saints here. Great win and all but I think that win says more about the Eagles than it does about the Saints. King up forward is starting to be a very good player and it will be scary to think what he will be next year with another pre-season under his belt. The Tigers should have won last weekend against the Power but I wouldn’t be worried a bit in my eyes. The Tigers need to finish in the top 6 to fight for another title. Most of their players had an off game on Friday night and pushed the Power the whole way. Back in Melbourne coming off two losses in a row, I would be very scared if I was a Saints fan. Dusty will have a big game and the Tigers will win easy. Tigers by 24+
Head 2 Head
Saints have won two of the last three games versus the Tigers
Best bet
Tigers win $1.45
Tigers 40+ $3.90
West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Magpies, Optus Stadium, 16th April 8.10pm
Huge game this for both sides if the Eagles win, they will be back in the hunt for a top four finish. If they lose, they are in the middle eight and the Victorian media will be into them again. The Pies on the other hand are coming in to this game undermanned and looking like it could be a rough trip to the wild west. Positive for the Pies, they beat the Eagles last year by a point in a final where no one gave them a chance. Could lightning strike twice? Big weekend for Tim Kelly and De Goey, both been in and out of form and will need to have big games if their sides are to win. Nic Nat in the ruck versus Grundy is a mouth-watering contest. Whoever wins that can help their side win. Eagles by 10+
Head 2 Head
Pies have won the last two of the last three games versus the Eagles
Best bet
Pies 22.5 $1.90
Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns, Marvel Stadium, 16th April 4.35pm
Danger game here for the Suns, they are coming off two loses and if they lose this it could be one of those what if years. Started off very well with a narrow loss to the Eagles, then a dominate win versus the Kangaroos, but now if they lose it will be three in a row and they will be battling it out for the spoon again. Should have beaten Carlton last weekend on their home deck but again don’t have the manpower to contest for four quarters. Dogs are in hot form and are yet to drop a game, the way they play teams is on their terms and it is looking a lot like the Dogs of 2016. Very physical side who love to win their own ball and Josh Bruce is in great touch along with the Bont. Dogs win this easy and will be hard to beat at the top of the ladder. Dogs by 30+
Head 2 Head
Dogs have won two of the last three games versus the Suns
Best bet
Dogs -37.5 $1.90
Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants, SCG, 16th April 4.35pm
The Sydney Derby looks to be a cracker of a match between big brother and little brother. The Swans had a good win last Thursday against the Bombers in a game where it went right down to the line and needed Buddy to seal the game. The Giants, on the other hand, had their best win of the last two years. The way they beat the Pies was nothing short of brilliance, they have found a player in Bobby Hill, who set up Toby Greene for three of his five goals. His speed really opens the opposition's defence and is a great way to goal. If he brings his A game on Saturday, they can upset a Swans side who are due of a loss. Going for an upset here Giants by 1+ bet the Giants line.
Head 2 Head
Giants have won two of the last three games versus the Swans
Best bet
Giants win $2.70
Giants 16.5 $1.90
Carlton Blues vs Port Adelaide Power, Marvel Stadium, 16th April 7.25pm
I love this game for the Blues, the Power are undermanned and their big bag of wind Charlie Dixon is out of form... he was never in form. Dursma out, Butters out and Rozee looks like he is on one leg. Carlton fans will get up for this one come Saturday night if they can win this. At their home ground led by captain Cripps I, am tipping the Blues to cause an upset and march on to a famous win. The Blues were ok against the Suns last weekend, but they got the four points and will look at this game and think it is a winnable fixture. The Power can hurt the Blues in the middle, their mids are still very strong. Mackay versus Alir is a great match up for all. Blues by 5+
Head 2 Head
Power have won the last three games versus the Blues
Best bet
Blues win $2.15
Blues 5.5 $1.90
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers, Gabba 16th April 7.25pm
The Lions are back home and watch out Bombers. Weird that the Bombers are on the road for the second week in a row after being in Sydney last Thursday, but if they play like they did last weekend, they can beat the Lions. The Lions have been good away from home, winning one and losing to the Dogs last weekend in Ballarat. The forward presence of Hipwood and Daniher is scary and if those two can kick a bag, the Lions will win this game by 60+ points. The Bombers found a player in Cox last weekend, he moved over the ground like a tiger and was so agile for a big man. Dons need to play Stringer one out in the forward 50 - he was so dangerous last Thursday. Lions by 20+
Head 2 Head
Bombers have won two of the last three games versus the Lions
Best bet
Lions -24.5 $1.90
Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Dockers, Adelaide oval, 17th April 1.10pm
Bit of a snooze fest this game with the Crows to win this game easy come Sunday afternoon. The Crows are in some serious form only dropping one game for season 2021. They have played some weaker opposition but as I have said before, you can only beat who you are matched against. I love that Taylor Walker is playing with a spring in his step, he deserves some success, so let’s hope the Crows can keep this rolling. The Dockers had a nice win against the Hawks last weekend but god, if they add those finishing touches... they couldn’t kick a goal last weekend to save themselves and that is a sign of a side that isn’t confident. I am tipping a big win for the Crows this weekend. Crows by 30+
Head 2 Head
Dockers have won two of the last three games versus the Crows
Best bet
Crows win $1.68
Crows -5.5 $1.90
Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons, Melbourne Cricket Ground, 17th April 3.20pm
Looking forward to this contest come Sunday, The Demons are in some rare form and I hope for all their die-hard supporters they get some sort of luck this year. Gawn is in some serious form and is giving first use to his mids in Petracca and Oliver who are ball magnets. Throw Pickett in there for some goal smarts and they have a serious football side. Big out is Steven May, who will miss the next four weeks with an eye injury. The Hawks on the other hand were their own worst enemies last weekend and let the Dockers get out to a six-goal head start and you just can’t do that in WA. We saw that the week before with the Power letting the Eagles kick away. Different game styles come Sunday with the Demons a fast-paced side and the Hawks a slow and wing team. Can’t see the Demons losing this in the form they are in. Demons by 20+
Head 2 Head
Melbourne have won the last three games versus the Hawks
Best bet
Demons -23.5 $1.90
Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne Kangaroos, GMHBA Stadium, 17th April 4.40pm
Final match of the round and if I had dinner with the in laws, I would attend that instead of watching this snooze fest. The Kangaroos aren’t an AFL side at the moment they are more of a VFL side. I do like the look of their young players but they are still going to take another three years. The Cats will be hurting after losing to the Demons last weekend and will look to smash the Kangaroos to help with their percentage. The Cats are expected to blood gun recruit in Jeremey Cameron and that will bolster their forward line. The Kangaroos need to stop the run of Duncan and Guthrie but in all honesty, I think it will be a difficult game for the Roos. Cats by 50+
Head 2 Head
Cats have won the last three games versus the Kangaroos
Best bet
Cats -58.5 $1.90
