Round 4
Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs
June 25th (Thursday 7.40pm) SCG
Thursday night starts with a bang and these two sides hate each other. The Dogs don’t mind going to the SCG to play the Swans, the ground suits their game style and if their forwards can get on top early it will go a long way for them winning this. The Swans are riding high after a hard fought win against a Kangaroos side who are no easy beats. Tom Papley is a star who kicks clutch goals and is a pest for all opposition defenders. We have seen a lot of games this year if you get off to a good start you can maintain the lead into the 2nd qtr. It goes a long way for a win. If one of these sides kicks an early four goals it might be game over. I am tipping the Swans who have brought back Naismith for dual ruck duties and the Dogs have dropped Suckling which is surprising as he sets up a lot of their attack from the back. SCG holds no fears for the Dogs but with flying in fly out rules still in place I think the Swans will be too tough for the Dogs. Swans in a tight one.
H2H
Dogs have won three of the last five games vs the Swans
Best Bet
Swans -1.5 $1.90
Swans win $1.85
GWS Giants vs Collingwood Magpies
June 26th (Friday 7.50pm) Giants Stadium
Huge game for the Giants here they have lost their last two games since coming back from the extended break and to be honest haven’t looked like the side that made the Grand Final last year. Their spark is gone and they are finding it extremely hard to kick goals. This week they welcome back Toby Greene who will add that much needed grunt to their forward line and if he can kick a bag it will go a long way in the Giants winning this one. The Pies on the other hand found some form last weekend vs a good Saints side that was full of confidence I like the inclusion of Mason Cox who can help up forward, he doesn’t need to kick goals but needs to make an impact on the contest for his smaller forwards like De Goey and Elliott to crum and kick goals. Will be a tight contest but I am tipping the Giants to get back to winning ways. A few lucky fans who have been allowed into the game will be screaming for a Giants win.
H2H
Giants have won four of the last five games vs the Pies
Best Bet
Gaints win $2.10
Giants +5.5 $1.90
Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles
June 27th (Saturday 1.45pm) Metricon Stadium
The Power has been turned on at Port Adelaide since footy has restarted and they look like a very good side in season 2020. I still have my doubts if they can carry this form throughout the whole year but we will get a better look this weekend when they tackle the Eagles on Saturday. It is Brad Ebert's 250th game and ironically he plays the side he made his debut for. The Eagles on the other look slow, tired and grumpy but they now have a date for when they are heading back to WA and from all reports will get seven home games at Optus Stadium in front of fans if that doesn’t excite a football side I don’t know what will. The Eagles have dropped four players and brought in a bit of speed with Cole and Jones coming in for Rotham and Schofield. The Power have lost one of their gun younger players in Durrsma who did a hamstring last week and is set to miss 4-6 weeks. I am tipping the Eagles to beat the Power but they must start well this weekend or it is good night Margaret. The conditions if it stays sunny will suit the Eagles fast running game.
H2H
Eagles have won three of the last five games vs the Power
Best Bet
Eagles +8.5 $1.90
Eagles win $2.40
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers
June 27th (Saturday 4.40pm) Marvel Stadium
Saturday arvo game for the late Maddy Riewoldt which is always a good contest against two sides that have had up and down starts to season 2020. The Tigers for some reason can’t kick a goal and Jack Riewoldt looks very off and might be playing injured. He will respond for this game as it is very close to his heart. Dustin Martin needs to impose himself on this game as well has sore ribs but needs to crash some packs and be hungry for the ball and be selfish Dustin kick a goal and lift your side. The Saints need a lot to go right if they are to beat the Tigers on Saturday they played ok vs a good Pies side but again drifted in and out of the game. I will say their skills have lifted and they look a lot more polished going forward with Hill kicking to Membrey. I am tipping the Tigers but it would not surprise me if the Saints got up. The line is way overs.
H2H
Tigers have won four of the last five games vs the Saints
Best Bet
Saints +15.5 $1.90
Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle Dockers
June 27th (Saturday 7.40pm) Metricon Stadium
The Suns are going for three in a row wins, if you told me that at the start of the year I would have laughed in your face. They have been handed a nice run of fixtures by the AFL but again you can only beat who you play so congrats to the Suns. They are playing an exciting brand of footy and their young players look a lot more physical and much stronger around the contest then past years. They come up against a Freo side who is crying out for a win, they were unlucky in their first two rounds vs the Bombers and Lions but last week vs the Power and especially when the rain came it was all over for them. Good to see Jesse Hogan back after a few off field issues. I am sticking with the Suns here and they will win their third game for season 2020.
H2H
Suns have won three of the last five games vs the Dockers
Best Bet
Suns win $1.70
Suns -5.5 $1.90
Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues
June 27th (Saturday 7.40pm) MCG
A week from hell for the Bombers with two of their players forced into quarantine and they also had their game vs the Demons last weekend postponed. Anyway enough about that they play a Blues side this weekend who is coming off beating Geelong in Geelong amazing scenes last weekend and what a win. They jumped the Blues early and got out to a 36 point lead early and in these short qtrs that lead is very hard to chase down. The Cats did get back late in the game but the Blues did very well to hang on and record a famous victory. I am tipping the Bombers though because they will be hungry to make up for last weekend's disaster and will be fresh and ready to go. As mentioned before, start is crucial so whoever can kick an early score will be favourites to win this game. Heppell is out for the Dons with an ankle injury but they add some speed with Fantasia added to the squad.
H2H
Bombers have won three of the last five games vs the Blues
Best Bet
Bombers win $1.72
Bombers -4.5 $1.90
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows
June 28th (Sunday 1.05pm) Gabba
This season hasn’t started well for the Crows and this weekend it is going to get a whole lot worse. They have been by far the worst team in the competition and got smashed last weekend vs a young Suns side which bullied them for four qtrs. They didn’t kick a goal in the first qtr and didn’t look like kicking one for the second until a free kick was paid. The Lions are at their home ground and will look to kick a big score against a struggling Crows side who look so out of touch with each other. Lions had a good hard fought victory against a West Coast side that challenged them for three qtrs. They welcome back Zorko this weekend and he will add much needed grunt and physical force in around the stoppages for the Lions. Lions win this and they win wel.
H2H
Crows have won four of the last five games vs the Lions
Best Bet
Lions -30.5 $1.90
Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats
June 28th (Sunday 3.35pm) MCG
Big game this come Sunday one side is coming off a week off due to their opponents being forced into lock down with Covid and one side losing to a side they should have beaten by 10 goals at their home ground. The Demons have dropped Harley Bennell who I thought who appreciated the week off last week but Goodwin thinks otherwise. Hate to say it but I think Harley will be a lot like Nathan Freeman feel good story that he has got back to playing AFL but his body won’t hold up for a full season and will be in and out most weeks. The Cats on the other hand have swung the changes after last week's poor performance and will look to exert some pain against the Demons. These two sides usually play tight contests so look for a physical game early but the Cats to kick away late in the match. Dangerfield in the middle of the MCG is also a very scary thought for Demon fans.
H2H
Cats have won four of the last five games vs the Demons
Best Bet
Cats -11.5 $1.90
Cats win $1.52
Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
June 28th (Sunday 6.10pm) Marvel
The Hawks had their best win of the season 2020 last weekend when they jumped the Tigers early and got out to an 8 goal lead by half time. Led by O’Meara they were all over the Tigers early and never looked like losing. They looked very slick coming out of their back line which set up great delivery to their forward line. I was particularly impressed by Chad Wingard who looks to have found his groove back. The Kangaroos went in favorites last weekend vs the Swans and dished up their worst performance. Couldn’t kick straight and never looked like winning. Coming off a great win vs the Giants I expected more from the Kangas but they let their fans down again. They need to be competitive early vs the Hawks or it will be a tough ask. Mason Wood has been dropped and Ben Cunnington has been named to come back for the Kangaroos. Hawks win this well.
H2H
Hawks have won three of the last five games vs the Kangaroos
Best Bet
Hawks -9.5 $1.90
Hawks win $160
