AFL Round 4
Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers, Sydney Cricket Ground, 8th April 7.20pm
Round 4 kicks off on Thursday between two teams who are worlds apart. The Swans knocked off the flag favourites last week at their home ground without Lance Franklin. They didn’t only beat the Tigers - they destroyed them in contested possessions. They welcome back Lance Franklin for tonight’s game and if he gets some space, he could be in for a serious night. The Swans young guns are on fire and they added another rising star nomination during the week. Papley and Heeney are kicking goals because the mids are getting first use of the ball from the middle. The Bombers on the other hand had a good win against the Saints last weekend but St Kilda are trash - so I wouldn’t be reading too much into that performance. They will need to bring the heat early if they are to beat the Swans tonight. They need to win the contested ball. Bombers don’t mind playing at the SCG as it suits their kicking game. Swans by 25+
Head 2 Head
Bombers have won three of the last five against the Swans
Best bet
Swans 1-39 $1.98
Bombers +27.5 $1.90
Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Lions, Adelaide Oval, 9th April 7.50pm
Match of the round here on Friday night. The Power will be out to get some revenge to the side that beat them in the prelim final last year at this very ground. Both sides are coming off a loss and will be eager to get the chocolates this weekend. I can’t tip against the Tigers here. They got smashed last weekend, but the big plus is they love travelling away after a loss and being underdogs. Dustin Martin had an unbelievable game in the prelim and the Power will need to put someone on him if they are to win. The Power went down to the Eagles last weekend in Perth but it was all over by quarter time. The Power can’t let the Tigers kick goals early or they will put them away. They key to this game is the forwards. The Power have Dixon and the Tigers have Lynch. Who ever can give their forwards first use of the ball will win this game. Expecting rain for this game which will play into the Tigers' hands. Tigers by 8+
Head 2 Head
Richmond have won three of the last five against the Power
Best bet
Tigers win $2.30
Tigers +7.5 $1.90
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions, Mars Stadium, 10th April 1.35pm
Very much looking forward to this contest between two sides who are battling it out for that top four position. The Dogs last weekend had a training run against the Kangaroos, so you can’t say they are in red hot form, but they would be impressed with Josh Bruce, who ended up kicking 10 goals last weekend in a dominate performance. I love the game of Jack Mcrae. He finds the ball better than most and is an elite ball user. The Lions had their best win of the last three years last weekend. Nothing going right over the last two weeks, robbed against Geelong, can’t fly back to Brisbane and then end up beating the Pies after the siren in a classic match. If this game was at Marvel or the MCG, I would give the Lions a chance but being played in Ballarat, I can’t see them beating the Dogs. The Dogs know this ground well and will use it to their advantage. Lions need to use the long kicking of Birchall and Rich to try and win this game by opening the wings. Bulldogs by 12+
Head 2 Head
Bulldogs have won three of the last five against the Lions
Best bet
Bulldogs win $1.52
Bulldogs -11.5 $1.90
St Kilda Saints vs West Coast Eagles, Marvel Stadium, 10th April 4.35pm
Interesting game, this one. On paper, the Eagles win by 10 goals+ but traveling away from Optus does throw up some curve balls. If the Eagles get off to a good start, they will win but if the Saints hold them early, they can upset the Eagles. Saints have been written off by most this week that they aren’t up to AFL standard and losing to the Bombers by 60+ points I believe that. They were hopeless last weekend, but they have a young side and if they bring the heat early they can win. They need to get first use of the ball and deliver it quick and fast to their forwards in Membrey and King. If they can’t do that - forget about it. The Eagles mids are on fire led by Kelly and Nic Nat. They get first use of the ball and deliver it down to, I say, the best forward line in the league in Kennedy and Darling. And, throw in flying Ryan, who is arguably the most exciting player in the league. Shuey is out with a hamstring injury which is a very big blow. Eagles to be too strong for the Saints but it won’t be a blow out. Eagles by 10+
Head 2 Head
Eagles have won four of the last five against the Saints
Best bet
Saints +17.5 $1.90
Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Blues, Metricon Stadium, 10th April 7.25pm
Many people will say this game will be a snooze fest come Saturday night, but I am the opposite and say this will be very interesting. The Suns have been dealt some horrible news with their captain and ruckman Jarrod Witts going down with an ACL injury. It hurts the Suns, but they are a growing group and can cover his loss. They were very competitive last weekend against the Crows and if it wasn’t for Witts going down, I think they would have won. The Blues had their first win of the year against the Dockers last weekend and it was good to see Cripps get the support he needed when going in the middle. Mckay kicked 7 but jeez, he needs to work on his run up and kick the ball straight and normal with a drop punt - not a snap around the body - it shows that he is not confident. It should be a good game but being on the Gold Coast and in front of the home fans, the Suns will win this and get their season back on track. Starts in the middle. Suns by 15+
Head 2 Head
Carlton have won three of the last five against the Suns
Best bet
Gold Coast win $1.98
Gold Coast +1.5 $1.90
Collingwood Magpies vs GWS Giants, Melbourne Cricket Ground 10th April 7.25pm
Start of the season you would have said that this game would be a classic but after three rounds, this game could be a blow out. The Pies had victory snatched from their grasp last weekend in a game with the Lions that could have gone either way but it wasn’t meant to be for Nathan Buckely's side. The Pies will get their season back on track with a win against the Giants. The Pies will run this Giants side off the park from the start. The Giants are battling out for the bottom three this year and it didn’t get any better last weekend for them with De Boer, Coniglio and Davis all set for extended periods on the sidelines after picking up injuries. If it wasn’t for the Giants' small forward, Toby Greene, this side would be in all sorts of trouble, but he kicked five last weekend and keeps his side in it. Pies by 40+ for me in a day that could have ramifications for coach Leon Cameron.
Head 2 Head
GWS have won four of the last five against the Pies
Best bet
Pies 40+ $2.60
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Adelaide Crows, Marvel Stadium, 11th April 1.10pm
I am calling it here, the Kangaroos will get their first win of season 2021 this Sunday! I know people will tell me the Crows are in red hot form led by the second coming of Taylor Tex Walker but the Kangaroos, after a week from hell, after being smashed by the Dogs, will come out and give this everything they have got. The Kangaroos were smashed and embarrassed last weekend, but a week is a long time in football, so look for a big performance come Sunday. The Crows are in good form and had a hard-fought victory against the Suns last weekend led by Sloane and Walker. They are a much more physical side this year. I am not saying they are no chance come Sunday, they can definitely win, but I think the Kangaroos have much more to play for. The Kangaroos must silence Walker early and get dirty. Be physical with their opponents and get the ball into their good players in Cunnington and Atley to set up their attack. Kangas win.
Head 2 Head
North have won three of the last five against the Crows
Best bet
North +20.5 $1.90
North win $3.60
Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats, Melbourne Cricket Ground, 11th April 3.20pm
This game we really get to see how good Melbourne are this year. They have beat beaten sides who are battling in the bottom 8 and everyone including myself are worried that it is all hype with the Demons. They haven’t started a season 3-0 since 2005 but after last weekend’s good performance against the Giants, there is plenty of upside for this Melbourne side. Pickett and Gawn are providing this Melbourne side with the spark they need. Picket kicked four very good goals last weekend and is becoming a very smart footballer inside 50. Max Gawn is a freak and is in season-best form. If he can deliver first use to his mids, they Dees can give their forwards first use and a better chance for goals. They welcome Ben Brown to the side this week for his debut for the Demons. If he can kick a bag, the Demons will be hard to beat. The Cats had a hard-fought victory last weekend against the Hawks and will need to be on their game if they are to beat the Demons. The Cats mids are on fire, led by Duncan, Selwood and Guthrie. If they rack up the footy and dominate from the start it will be hard to stop them going forward. Cats by 10+
Head 2 Head
Cats have won four of the last five against the Demons
Best bet
Cats win $1.78
Cats -3.5 $1.90
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks, Optus Stadium, 11th April 4.40pm
Round four wraps up in the West for a match that is a very good betting game. The Hawks were fantastic last weekend against the Cats and, in my eyes, should have beaten the Cats if it wasn’t for some silly decisions from Howe and a few of their defenders with only minutes left on the clock. They competed for four quarters and their forward line led by Lewis looks in sync. If they can start well this weekend it will take the crowd out of this contest. The Dockers last weekend weren’t great against the Blues and in my eyes are a second-rate football side. They get back Fyfe this weekend but he isn’t going to win you a game of football these days like he used to be able to. He needs more support and at the moment the Dockers don’t have that. If Hawks get on top early with O’Meara and Mitchell - watch out. Hawks by 10+. Get on the win and line. For me, the bet of the round.
Head 2 Head
Hawks have won four of the last five against the Dockers
Best bet
Hawks win $2.50
Hawks +10.5 $1.90
