Richmond Tigers v Essendon Bombers
Friday, August 17 7:50pm, MCG
Richmond returns to their fortress at the MCG as they aim for a remarkable 20th straight victory at the home of the AFL. They had fun in the sun last week as they crushed the Suns by 74 points. Jack Reiwoldt had a day out with 16 scoring shots! Meanwhile, the Bombers top 8 hopes are still alive but this will be a tough test. They were easily handled by the Tigers in Round 11 by 71 points at this venue. Since then, they have won 7 of 9. But the Tigers are 7-0 against them since 2014 and it’s hard to see that trend changing. Richmond allow just 63 points at this venue in 2018 and that should be the key in another 4+ goal victory.
Stadium Record
Richmond holds a 12-0 record at the MCG this season. Essendon are just 1-6 and have scored under 70 points per game.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 7-0 against the Bombers since 2014, which have all been at the MCG. The average winning margin is 29 points.
Best Bet
*Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia, David Astbury and Kane Lambert have all been admitted from the line-up since this preview was first published.
Collingwood Magpies v Port Adelaide Power
Saturday, August 18 1:45pm, MCG
It’s a crucial top 8 battle at the MCG with the Magpies hosting the Power. Collingwood sit 5th on the ladder and will be desperate for a top 4 finish. The Power are coming to Melbourne with a 1-4 record in their last 5 and they could still miss the finals if they lose this. However, they do have a good record over the Pies with 4 straight wins and I'm tipping a close encounter as a result. So I like the Power at the line to keep this margin close. They’ve won the last 2 against them at the MCG and surely the lengthy Magpies injury list will start to show.
Stadium Record
The Magpies are 7-6 at the MCG but 1-5 when they meet a top 8 side. Port beat the Blues here in Round 15.
Head to Head Record
Port Adelaide has a 6-1 record against the Magpies since 2013. At the ‘G, it’s in the Power’s favour 3-1.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats v Fremantle Dockers
Saturday, August 18 2:10pm, Kardinia Park
The Cats are back at Kardinia Park as they tackle the Dockers. Sitting 9th on the ladder and coming off 2 tough losses, the Cats really need to win this or it could be season over. In back to back games, they’ve lost to the Hawks and Tigers by under 12 points. So they should rebound against Fremantle, who are playing for pride. They’ve gone 1-7 interstate this season and that’s 0-6 against top 9 sides. Interestingly, the Dockers did come within 2 points of the Cats last year at this venue. So I think the line is really not fair on them. Geelong hasn’t won a game at this venue by 40+ in 7 attempts this season. So the Dockers at the line seems like the best bet and the Cats 1-39 for major value.
Stadium Record
Freo has a decent 2-3 record here since 2010. Geelong is 6-1 at home this season and 4-0 against bottom 8 sides.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 4-1 against the Dockers since 2014.
Best Bet
GWS Giants v Sydney Swans
Saturday, August 18 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium
The Battle of the Bridge takes on extra significance in Round 22 with the finals just around the corner. The Giants are aiming for a top 4 finish as they sit 3rd and Sydney will be looking for the same result. After losing the Suns and Bombers, the Swans have rebounded with crucial wins over the Demons and Magpies. GWS is one of the hottest sides in the AFL with 5 straight wins and have won 9 of their last 10. But the Swans got the 4 points in Round 3 with a 16 point victory. At the moment, I think the Giants injury list is going to hurt them. Especially since it looks like Josh Kelly will miss. So I love the value for the Swans to cause another upset. They have a 2-0 record against the Giants and 2-1 when they meet at Spotless. Also, they’re 6-2 against top 8 sides in 2018 and 7-5 overall when they’re coming off a win.
Stadium Record
The Giants are 5-2 at Spotless this season. Sydney is 2-1 since 2015.
Head to Head Record
The two sides met in Round 3 at the SCG with the Swans winning 103-87.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns v Brisbane Lions
Saturday, August 18 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium
The Q-Clash is at Metricon Stadium this week as the Suns face the Lions. Gold Coast has been lacklustre for most of the season, despite beating the Swans in Round 18. Since then, they've lost 3 straight against the Tigers, Demons and Blues by large margins. They’re also yet to win at Metricon in 6 attempts this season. Brisbane heads south after 4 straight losses but they have lost 2 of those by a kick. So I think they can rebound against the Suns with a 1-39 victory. Gold Coast is scoring just 53 points on average at Metricon in 2018. The Lions have been a decent scoring team in the AFL this season and should take advantage of the Suns weak defence. When they win at Metricon, it’s usually by the 1-39 margin as well (3-0 since 2010).
Stadium Record
The Suns are 0-6 at Metricon and have lost 4 against bottom 8 sides. The Lions are 3-3 here since 2010.
Head to Head Record
The Suns beat the Lions in Round 5 by 5 points and won the last clash here by 2 points.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints v Hawthorn Hawks
Saturday, August 18 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
The surging Hawks will look for their 5th straight win when they take on the Saints this Saturday night. Hawthorn is in the top 4 and they would love to stay there. The end of the season can’t come quickly enough for the Saints as they sit 15th. At Etihad, they’ve struggled against top 8 sides with a 0-4 (1 draw) record. In contrast, the Hawks are 10-3 against bottom 8 sides in 2018 at any venue. Tom Mitchell will probably have a field day and I can see another large loss for the Saints.
Stadium Record
St Kilda has a 2-8 (1 draw) record at Etihad in 2018. The Hawks have played here 4 times in 2018 for a 2-2 record.
Head to Head Record
Hawthorn beat St Kilda by 35 points in Round 6. At Etihad, the Hawks are 2-0 since 2013.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues v Western Bulldogs
Sunday, August 19 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
The Bulldogs seem to be finishing the season strongly and they’ll look for another win, this time against the Blues. At this venue, the Dogs have knocked off the Roos and Saints in back to back games. The Blues are returning from Perth and another loss. They’ve lost 4 in a row against the Bulldogs and I can’t see that trend changing. With an in-form midfield and a 7-3 record against fellow bottom 8 sides in 2018, get on the Dogs at the line.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 6-6 at Etihad this year but 6-1 when they face a bottom 8 side. The Blues haven’t won at Etihad in 6 tries this season.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs hold a 4-0 record against the Blues and 7-2 since 2010.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles v Melbourne Demons
Sunday, August 19 3:20pm, Optus Stadium
A cracking affair awaits at Optus Stadium with the Eagles hosting the Demons. The Eagles proved the doubters wrong last week with another close win over the Power. Meanwhile, the Demons are in real danger of missing the top 8 once again if they go down in this clash. They do have a good interstate record with 3 wins from 4 in 2018. But Optus Stadium is becoming a fortress for the Eagles. They’ve won 9 of 11 here and 3-1 when they face a top 8 side. They also hold a 12-2 overall record off the back of a win this season. So I think the Eagles will have the Demons measure. Melbourne lack defensive pressure and the Eagles should make them pay.
Stadium Record
The Demons have never played here. West Coast holds a 9-2 record.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Eagles are 9-1 against the Demons and 4-1 in Perth.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne Kangaroos
Sunday, August 19 4:40pm, Adelaide Oval
The round ends at the Adelaide Oval with a clash between the Crows and Kangaroos. Adelaide return home after a tough loss against the Giants in Canberra. Meanwhile, the Kangaroos were overrun by the Bulldogs by 7 points, which probably ended their top 8 hopes. The concern will be their record at this venue as they’re yet to beat an Adelaide side in 5 attempts. The Crows hold a 7-4 record at the Adelaide Oval in 2018 and that becomes 4-0 when they face a bottom 8 side. So my tip in this clash will be the Crows taking the lead at half-time and ending this clash in-front.
Stadium Record
The Crows are 7-4 at this venue in 2018. North haven’t played here this season and have lost the last 5 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last meeting, the Kangaroos stunned the Crows in a 59 point win. But the last meeting at this venue was a 62 point win for the home side in the 2016 final.
Best Bet
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