2025 AFL Semi Finals Betting Predictions
The Pies and Cats are enjoying a week off after victory in the 1st week of the AFL finals. So now 4 teams face elimination this weekend. First up, the top of the table Crows look to get back on track against a strong Hawks side. Meanwhile in QLD, the Gabba is sold out for the Q-Clash on Saturday night as the Suns aim for back to back finals victories for the first time.
Adelaide Crows (1st) vs Hawthorn (8th)
The ladder-leading Crows hit this must-win finals clash with the Hawks. They’re coming off a 24-point finals loss to the Pies at Adelaide Oval, so the response is the story here. Win and they tee up a date with the Cats next week. If there’s a soft spot, it’s volume: they don’t tend to rack up disposals (14th), but they usually don’t need to when they’re winning the territory battle. However, they are 3rd for goals in the AFL, strong territory (5th for inside 50s) and serious heat around the contest (3rd for tackles).
Form-wise, there are plenty of green lights. Luke Pedlar cashed in with three last start, Josh Worrell found plenty (26), and Rory Laird did what he does (24). Jordan Dawson was quieter than usual with 19 touches, which typically screams bounce-back captain’s game. One key out remains Izak Rankine—suspended for two more—so the Crows will spread the scoring load and lean into forward pressure to generate repeat entries.
From a betting angle, this profiles as a Crows-controlled game state: territory, pressure and repeat entries. Markets that make sense: Crows H2H or line, team total overs if you think their i50 edge translates, or play it safer with margin bands like Crows 1–39 if you expect the Hawks to hang around but not get blown out. Player props: Pedlar anytime (riding form), Worrell 20+ disposals, Laird 25+ as a base, and a Dawson 25+ “bounce-back” ticket if you like a narrative.
The Hawks roll into this one 15–8 and sitting 8th, a bit Jekyll-and-Hyde with a 10–1 home split but 5–7 away. Recent form’s solid at 3–2, and they’re coming off a clutch finals win over the Giants by 19 at Sydney Showgrounds, banging through 16 goals. Ball movement and pressure are their thing—ranked 5th for disposals and 5th for tackles—so if they control tempo and bring heat, they can make the Crows uncomfortable.
Up forward, the load was shared nicely last game with Macdonald, Gunston and Ginnivan all slotting three, while Jai Newcombe was everywhere with 32 touches. If they get past Adelaide, it’s the Cats next for a grand final spot. Watch the outs, though: Will Day, Maginness, Morrison and Dear (hamstring) are missing, which hurts their depth and mid-forward flexibility.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Hawks are 6-4 against the Crows.
Best Bet
The head to head is a tough one in this game as I think it could go either way. So I prefer to go with the Over total points. It has saluted in the last 3 matches between these two sides when they play in Adelaide. The met here a month ago and the scoreline was 101-87 with 188 total pts.
AFL Same Game Multi - Crows v Hawks
Leg #1 - Luke Pedlar Anytime Goalscorer
Luke Pedlar has kicked 1+ goals in each of his last five home appearances. He’s hit form with 3 goals in both of his last two games, giving him 8 across his last 4, and looks dangerous around goal.
Leg #2 - Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer
Jack Ginnivan has kicked 1+ goals in each of Hawthorn's last six interstate matches. He nailed 3 last week and has 5 in his last 2, so he’s a reliable go-to forward option.
Leg #3 - Jordan Dawson Anytime Goalscorer
Jordan Dawson has kicked 1+ goals in four of Adelaide's last five home matches. He had a quieter game last week but still managed a major, and as captain in a do-or-die final, expect him to lift.
Leg #4 (Value) - Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals
Jarman Impey has cleared 25+ disposals in three of Hawthorn's last four games. He racked up 28 last week and has strong knowledge of this ground from his Port Adelaide days, making him a good value pick.
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Gold Coast Suns (7th)
The Lions are back at home for the biggest Q-Clash yet against the Suns. Their game is built around control and territory: they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for disposals, 2nd for clearances and 2nd for inside-50s, so when they get rolling the ball basically lives in their half. The one knock is pressure—tackling sits down at 15th—so they’ll want to win it first and keep it off the deck rather than turn it into a scrap, which the Suns would enjoy.
They’re 3–2 across the last five and are fresh off a tough qualifying-final loss to the Cats at the MCG (112–74), but there were still plenty of individual signs. Dayne Zorko went nuts with 35 touches, Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft both had 30+, and Josh Dunkley piled on 30 as well. Cam Rayner found the goals with three, which is exactly the sort of spark they’ll want to carry home.
One watch is team availability with a lot of key players on the sidelines. They’re set to be without Answerth, Coleman, Doedee, Hipwood, McCarthy, Neale and Payne - significant names that hit both ends of the ground and the midfield rotations. Expect even more on-ball minutes for the likes of Zorko, Dunkley and Ashcroft, and a heavier forward workload for the smalls and mediums. The home split (7–4) still points to a lift back at their home deck.
The Suns hit this Q-Clash with a genuine tailwind. The headline is that gritty elimination final win in Perth—beating Freo by a single point for the club’s first finals victory in 15 years. David Swallow iced it with a late behind with nine seconds left, and they still found 11 goals on the road. Confidence box: tick.
Stat profile screams territory and damage: 1st in the AFL for inside-50s, 4th for clearances, 4th for goals. When they surge from stoppage, they don’t just get it in, they turn entries into scores. The split is real too: 9–2 at home, 6–6 away, so this trip to Brisbane is a proper test, but their style travels when the contest is hot especially with Rowell and Anderson in the side.
Form-wise, the pillars are in place. Humphrey (3 goals last game) offers a livewire target, Matt Rowell was a bull with 34 touches and six tackles, and Noah Anderson rolled to 32 disposals in a classy display. That inside combo is the key to matching the Lions’ midfield depth.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Gold Coast are 3-18 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Lions hold a 8-2 record against the Suns.
Best Bet
This should be a massive Q-Clash between these two rivals and I don't see a big margin. Brisbane are missing some key players, especially Neale and I think that showed last week in a big loss. The Suns will be fired up here. They have a poor record at the Gabba but as last week showed, they have a lot of confidence. So I will be close and the Suns cover the 8.5 start. They have a 7-1 ATS record against teams that won the GF in the previous season.
AFL Same Game Multi - Lions v Suns
Leg #1 - Over 167.5 pts
Brisbane’s last four finals have all gone over the total match points line, and when these two met in Round 20 it turned into a shootout that totalled 194 points (Suns 130–64). Expect another high-scoring clash with both sides built around midfield supply and attacking power.
Leg #2 - Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals
Noah Anderson has been piling them up in Queensland, recording 32+ disposals in each of his last five games there. He had 32 last week against Freo, 34 the week before against Essendon, and 32 against the Giants not long ago. As skipper, he’ll be right in the thick of it in this Q-Clash final.
Leg #3 - Callum Ah Chee Anytime Goalscorer
Callum Ah Chee steps up in finals footy. He’s kicked 1+ goals in four of Brisbane’s last five finals matches, and while a bit quieter recently, he’s still managed a major in two of his last four games. Expect him to pop up forward again.
Leg #4 (Value) - Jarrod Berry Anytime Goalscorer
Jarrod Berry has a handy record against the Suns at home, kicking a goal in each of Brisbane’s last three home Q-Clash games. He also snagged one last week against the Cats, making him a live value play to hit the scoreboard again.
