2025 AFL Round 9 Betting Predictions
The Showdown is the highlight of Round 9 as the Power take on the Crows this Saturday night. But the round will start with the Dockers looking to respond against the Pies on Thursday night in Perth.
Fremantle (9th) vs Collingwood (2nd)
The Dockers head into their clash with the Magpies, sitting at 4-4 for the season and just outside the top 8 in 9th spot. They’ve shown some promise, but consistency has been an issue, especially after a rough 94-33 loss to the Saints at Docklands last round. Jye Amiss was one of the few bright spots, kicking 2 goals in that game. At home, they’ve been solid with a 2-1 record, but things get shaky on the road with a 2-3 split. The Dockers’ biggest concerns are around the contest - they rank 16th in the league for clearances and 15th for disposals. With a 3-2 record in their last five and currently on a one-game skid, they’ll need to tidy up the basics if they’re going to bounce back against a strong Magpies side.
The Magpies are coming off a narrow 3-point loss to the Cats at the MCG, but overall they’ve been in great form, winning four of their last five. Mihocek was a standout last game, booting 4 goals. At home, they’ve been tough to beat with a 4-1 record, and they've been solid on the road too at 2-1. Stat-wise, the Pies are a force - they rank top 5 in the AFL for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles. Despite the recent loss, they’ve been one of the most consistent teams this season and will be looking to bounce back strongly against a Dockers side that's been up and down.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Collingwood are 3-1 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Dockers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
A real shocker by Freo last week but they are better at home, so there's some hope. But I don't think their forward line will be able to kick enough pts against the Pies defence.
Same Game Multi
It's hard to have any confidence in the Dockers, so I like the Pies to cover in Perth. They're 4-0 ATS when they face Freo and should be the better side on the day. Nick Daicos is finding the goals at the moment, he's kicked a goal in his last 3 games. I think he offers nice value to kick a goal on Thursday night.
Under 160.5 pts / Collingwood +2.5 / Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer = $5.60
St Kilda (10th) vs Carlton (13th)
The Saints are coming off a massive 61-point win over Fremantle at Docklands, where they slammed through 14 goals and looked sharp all around. Jack Macrae racked up 38 disposals and Cam Sharman chipped in with 4 goals in a dominant showing. They’re now sitting at 4-4 on the season and sit just outside the top 8 in 10th spot. At home, they’ve held their own with a 3-2 record, while away from home, they’ve been a bit patchier at 1-2. Over their last five, they’ve gone 2-3, but they’re riding a bit of momentum now with that solid win. One of their key strengths is tackling - they’re ranked 5th in the league in that department. With the Blues up next, the Saints will be hoping to keep that pressure game going and climb back into finals contention.
The Blues head into their clash with the Saints sitting 13th on the ladder with a 3-5 record and looking to bounce back after a rough 60-point loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval. They’ve gone 3-2 over their last five but are currently on a one-game losing streak. At home, they’ve been decent with a 2-2 record, but their away form hasn’t been great, sitting at 1-3. Despite their spot on the ladder, the Blues actually stack up well in a few key areas - they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for tackling, and 3rd for both clearances and inside 50s. If they can tidy up their execution and bring that pressure game, they’ve got a real shot at bouncing back against the Saints.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 7-8 at this venue since 2018. Carlton are 5-5 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Saints are 6-3 against the Blues.
Best Bet
A great win by the Saints last week and the Blues are wildly inconsistent. They're also just 1-5 ATS at the MCG.
Melbourne (15th) vs Hawthorn (3rd)
The Demons are starting to find some form after a slow start, coming into this clash with the Hawks on a 3-game winning streak. They’re 3-5 on the season and sitting 15th on the ladder, but their recent 32-point win over the Eagles in Perth - where they booted 16 goals - shows they’re building momentum. Max Gawn was huge last round with 35 disposals, and Daniel Turner chipped in with 3 goals. That said, there are still areas they need to fix - Melbourne ranks 14th in clearances and tackles, and 16th for goals kicked. Their home record is 2-3, and away it's 1-2, so consistency has been an issue. Still, with confidence growing, the Dees will be looking to keep the streak alive against a Hawks outfit they’ll feel they can match up well against.
The Hawks are flying high at the moment, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 6-2 record and coming off a dominant 65-point win over Richmond at the MCG, where they kicked 16 goals. Gunston and Watson both nailed 3 goals each, while Josh Battle racked up an impressive 33 disposals. They’ve now won two in a row and are 3-2 across their last five games. At home, they’re a perfect 4-0, and they’ve held their own on the road too with a 2-2 record. Statistically, the Hawks are one of the top sides in the comp - ranked 4th for both disposals and goals, and 3rd for tackling. With their current form and a strong all-round game, they’ll head into the clash with the Demons full of confidence.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Hawthorn are 9-1 in their last 10 games at MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Demons hold an 8-1 (1 draw) record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Hawks are 9-1 ATS at the MCG and I think they'll handle the Dees, who may struggle after a Perth trip.
Essendon (11th) vs Sydney Swans (14th)
The Bombers are coming off a tight 3-point win over North Melbourne at Docklands, where they kicked 9 goals. Zach Merrett was in great form, collecting 35 disposals, while Archie Perkins added 3 goals to the tally. Sitting 11th on the ladder with a 4-3 record, the Bombers have been solid, especially in their last five games where they’ve gone 4-1. They’ve been strong in disposals, ranked 2nd in the AFL, but they’ve struggled with their goal-kicking, ranking 15th, and aren’t getting enough inside 50 entries, also sitting 15th in that area. On the road, they’re unbeaten with a 2-2 record, and at home, they’re 2-1. With a winning streak on the line, the Bombers will be looking to shore up their weaknesses and keep the momentum going against the Swans.
The Swans are looking to build on their 14-point win over the GWS Giants at the SCG, where they kicked 12 goals. James Jordan was a standout, kicking 2 goals in that victory. Sitting 14th on the ladder with a 3-5 record, they’ve been a bit inconsistent this season, but they’re coming off a win and will be hoping to keep the momentum going. Their away form has been decent, with a 2-2 record, but at home they’ve struggled with a 1-3 record. The Swans have had trouble in some key areas, ranking 14th in clearances and 16th in tackling, which has held them back. With just 3 wins on the board, they’ll need to tighten up those areas if they want to climb up the ladder and challenge the Bombers in this matchup.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Swans are 7-3 against the Bombers.
Best Bet
The Bombers only kicked 60 odd pts last week and Sydney's forward line hasn't been great over the last few weeks. So I like the Under, which is 4-1 in the Bombers last 5 games.
Gold Coast Suns (4th) vs Western Bulldogs (6th)
The Suns have had a strong season so far, sitting 4th on the ladder with a 5-2 record. They’re coming off a tough loss to the Lions at the Gabba, where they went down 66-49, but they’ve been solid on the road with a 3-2 record. Touk Miller led the way last game with 29 disposals, but the Suns will be looking to bounce back after that setback. They’ve been one of the best teams for kicking goals, ranked 2nd in the AFL, and they’re also top of the table for inside 50 entries. However, they’ve struggled with disposals, ranking 14th in the league, so that’s an area they’ll need to improve on. At home, they’ve been perfect so far, with a 2-0 record, and with their strong attacking game, they'll be confident heading into the matchup with the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs are on a roll with a 3-game winning streak, including a massive 90-point victory over Port Adelaide in their last match, where they kicked 20 goals. Their recent form has been impressive, going 3-2 in the last five games and sitting 6th on the ladder with a 5-3 record. They’ve been dominant in several key areas, ranking 2nd in the AFL for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50 entries, and 3rd for disposals. However, tackling has been a weak spot for them, sitting 17th in the league. At home, they’ve been solid with a 3-2 record, and they’re also unbeaten on the road with a 2-1 record. With their strong midfield and attack, the Bulldogs will be confident as they take on the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 6-1 at this venue since 2018. The Bulldogs are 0-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 4 games against the Suns.
Best Bet
The Suns have an impressive record at TIO but the Dogs are in super form. So I like the Over, which is 4-0 at this venue when the Suns are playing here.
Port Adelaide (12th) vs Adelaide Crows (5th)
The Power have had a mixed season so far, sitting in 12th place on the ladder with a 4-4 record. They’re coming off a heavy loss to the Bulldogs at Ballarat, where they were beaten 131-41. Despite struggling to kick goals, ranking 14th in the AFL in that area, they’ve had a solid home record with 3 wins and 1 draw. However, their away form has been shaky, managing just 1 win and 3 losses. In their last game, Willie Rioli kicked 2 goals, but the Power will need to improve in attack if they want to turn their season around. With a 3-2 record in their last five games, they’ll be looking to bounce back and get back to winning ways.
The Crows are sitting pretty in 5th place on the ladder with a 5-3 record, coming off a dominant 60-point win over Carlton at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 16 goals. They’ve been strong at home, with a 4-1 record, but their away form has been a bit shaky, going 1-2. In their last five games, they’ve gone 2-3. Key players like Rankine, with 29 disposals, and Dawson, who kicked 3 goals in their last game, have been crucial to their success. The Crows are ranked 1st in the AFL for goals kicked and 5th for both clearances and disposals, making them a tough team to beat. With their current form and strong stats, they’ll be aiming to extend their winning streak.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Power hold a 6-4 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
In the showdown, the home team is 8-1 ATS and that works in the Power's favour. Expect a response from the Power after last week's woeful performance.
Richmond (16th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Tigers are struggling this season, sitting in 16th place with a 2-6 record, and they've dropped their last two games. In their most recent match, they lost to the Hawks by a hefty margin, 109 to 44, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Their away form is particularly concerning, having lost all four away games so far. The Tigers have a number of weaknesses, including ranking 17th in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and dead last in inside 50 entries and tackling. With only two wins under their belt this season, they’ll need a major turnaround to get back on track.
The Eagles are in a tough spot, sitting at the bottom of the ladder with a 0-8 record, and they’re currently on an 8-game losing streak. They’re still looking for their first win of the season and have struggled across the board, ranking 18th in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked. They also sit near the bottom for inside 50 entries and tackling. Their most recent loss came against the Demons, where they were beaten by 32 points at Perth Stadium. The Eagles have yet to pick up a win at home or on the road this season, with an 0-4 record in both categories. It’s been a challenging start to the season for the Eagles, and they’ll need a significant improvement to turn things around.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at MCG, Richmond holds a 1-4 record. West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
Both sides are struggling so I think kicking goals will be tough and the Under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 games.
Geelong Cats (7th) vs GWS Giants (8th)
The Cats have had a solid start to the season with a 5-3 record and are currently sitting 7th on the ladder. They’re coming off a narrow 3-point win over Collingwood in Round 8, where they kicked 13 goals at the MCG. While they’ve been strong in certain areas, ranking 1st for tackling and 4th for goals kicked, they’ve struggled a bit with disposals and inside 50 entries. The Cats have been good at home, with a perfect 3-0 record, but they’ve faced more challenges on the road, with a 2-3 record in away games. They’ll be looking to build on their recent win and continue improving as the season progresses.
The Giants are sitting in 8th place on the ladder with a 4-4 record for the season. They’re coming off a tough loss to the Swans at the Sydney Cricket Ground, where they went down by 14 points. They’ve been solid in some areas, particularly disposals, where they’re ranked 1st in the AFL. However, they’ve struggled with consistency lately, with a 2-3 record in their last five games and a 3-game losing streak. At home, they’ve been decent with a 2-1 record, but their away form has been more challenging, sitting at 2-3. Tom Green has been a standout with 34 disposals last game, and Stringer contributed 3 goals. The Giants will need to bounce back and find some form as they face the Cats next.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 games at Kardinia Park. GWS are 4-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 5-3 against the Cats since 2018.
Best Bet
GWS are struggling at the moment but they actually love playing here, they've covered in their last 4. Geelong could be a bit flat after a huge win on Saturday night too.
Greater Western Sydney +16.5 = $1.90
North Melbourne (17th) vs Brisbane Lions (1st)
The Kangaroos are having a tough season, sitting at 1-7, with their only win coming early on. They’re currently on a six-game losing streak and haven’t been able to grab a win in their last five outings. In their most recent match at Docklands, they lost by just 3 points to the Bombers, finishing 65 to 62. Sheezel had a solid performance with 32 disposals, and Larkey kicked 2 goals, but the Kangaroos are struggling with inside 50 entries, ranking 16th in the AFL in that area. Their home record isn’t much better at 1-3, and they’ve yet to pick up a win away from home, with a 0-4 record. They’ll need to turn things around quickly if they’re to challenge the Lions next.
The Lions are absolutely flying this season, sitting at the top of the ladder with a 7-1 record. They’re on a two-game winning streak and have been dominating at home, boasting a 3-1 record at the Gabba. In their latest win over the Gold Coast Suns, they came out on top by 17 points, kicking 9 goals. Will Ashcroft had a standout performance with 34 disposals, while Cameron and Ah Chee each kicked 3 goals. The Lions are excelling in clearances, ranking 1st in the AFL, and their inside 50 entries are also impressive, sitting 4th. They’ve been perfect on the road so far with a 4-0 away record, and they’ll be confident heading into their next match against the struggling Kangaroos.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are yet to play here.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 6-2 against the Kangaroos since 2018.
Best Bet
A 6 goal line is about right and I think with the Roos defensive issues, the Lions should be able to kick away in the end.
