2025 AFL Round 5 Betting Predictions
Gather round is back for another year and we have an excellent weekend ahead of us in Adelaide. It starts with a top 8 clash as the Crows host the Cats on Thursday night at the Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide Crows (5th) vs Geelong Cats (8th)
The Crows have been ticking off a few old hoodoos lately as they push for a return to finals footy for the first time since 2017, but there’s still that lingering issue when it comes to playing Geelong. Adelaide has only beaten the Cats once in their last eight matchups. That said, they’ll be fired up after a controversial loss last week and will be looking to kick off Gather Round with a big response.
Geelong's had a bit of a shaky start to the year, but their comfortable win over Melbourne showed they’re not far off clicking into gear. A clash with a red-hot Adelaide side will be a great test to see where they’re really at. And playing at Adelaide Oval won’t worry them too much—they’ve won five of their last six there.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Gather Round should kick off with a quality and high-scoring contest between the Crows and Cats. Geelong are 6-0 against the Over at the Adelaide Oval and Adelaide are easily the highest-scoring team in the AFL this season.
Same Game Multi
Thilthorpe has kicked 3+ goals in 5 straight games, highlighted by a bag of 5 last week. Cameron has kicked a goal in every game this year and I think he'll stand up on Thursday. Dawson comes off 31 touches and has hit the 25 mark in 4 of his last 5 games. Patrick Dangerfield has recorded 16+ disposals in each of his 13 games against Adelaide - his former team.
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs Sydney Swans (9th)
Collingwood isn’t letting any concerns about being the oldest team on average in AFL history slow them down. With three straight wins, they’re looking like they’ll be back in the top four mix again this year. While they don’t travel as much as some teams, the Magpies have shown they thrive on the road and won’t be worried about taking on the Swans at a venue where they’ve won their last nine games.
Sydney has turned its season around with two solid wins in a row, and the Swans were especially impressive in their huge victory over North Melbourne, with their fast-paced, slingshot game firing again. They’ll face a tougher challenge this week, but they can take confidence from their recent record against Collingwood, having won five of their last six meetings.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 8-1 at this venue since 2018. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 6-3 against the Magpies since 2018.
Best Bet
The Under is 5-1 in the Pies last 6 and I think both sides will find it tough to kick a massive score.
North Melbourne Kangaroos (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (3rd)
North Melbourne took a big step backward after failing to live up to the growing expectations, suffering a tough loss to a Sydney team missing some key players. While the Kangaroos have added some experience to go with their young stars, they still need to prove they can bounce back from tough losses and consistently challenge top teams like the Suns, who are rapidly on the rise.
Gold Coast is on a roll, aiming for four straight wins to start the season, which would be a first in the club’s history, and they’re setting up a strong case for their first-ever finals appearance. Even though the Suns have had a rough recent record against North Melbourne, with two losses in their last three matchups, their revamped team is looking good and they’ll be hoping to keep climbing up the ladder.
Stadium Record
Both sides haven't played here.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Suns are 6-4 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 interstate games and their away winning woes from last season seem to have disappeared. So I think they rack up a big win over the Roos, who were disappointing last week.
Carlton Blues (16th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
Carlton is already facing the reality of another tough season after four straight losses, but now they've got a golden chance to get things back on track against the winless West Coast. While the Blues won’t be taking anything for granted, especially after their surprise loss to the Tigers, they have a strong record against the Eagles, winning the last four matchups by an average of 77 points.
West Coast lost some of the momentum they had built up recently after being outclassed by Greater Western Sydney, leaving the Eagles with even more worries both on and off the field. It was their fourth straight loss, but they had shown some hope in previous games with more competitive performances, and now they’ll be looking to take advantage of the pressure mounting on the Blues.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
This feels like a game where the Blues can unleash a bit of frustration but I'm not sure about their forward line at the moment. Take the Uuder, which is 10-0 in the Blues last 10.
Each of Carlton's last 10 matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Western Bulldogs (10th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
The Western Bulldogs can’t be too upset with their even win-loss record given the injury crisis they’re dealing with, but they would’ve been frustrated by their loss to Fremantle. They pushed the Dockers all the way, just like they did in their earlier loss to the Pies, but now they need to stay in touch with the top teams while they wait for some reinforcements to arrive.
Brisbane has quietly made a statement with an undefeated start to the season, even though they haven’t yet hit the same high levels that took them to the premiership last year. The Lions know from last year’s slow start that early form doesn’t always define the season, but they won’t mind chasing a 5-0 start to the season for the first time in the club’s history.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bulldogs are 5-4 against the Lions.
Best Bet
The Dogs have been good despite a long injury list but I think the Lions are locked in, having won 9 on the trot. They would love to make it 10 in a row.
Melbourne Demons (17th) vs Essendon Bombers (14th)
Melbourne kicked off the season with a strong effort, narrowly losing to Greater Western Sydney, but things have since gone downhill with three more losses and a growing injury list. The Demons are struggling with familiar problems, particularly a forward line that just isn’t clicking, leaving them ranked 17th for points scored. To make matters worse, they’re also last for clearances per game, adding to their growing list of issues.
Essendon managed to head into the bye on a high after pulling off a big win over Port Adelaide, coming from behind to score the last four goals of the game. The Bombers must have enjoyed the spotlight on other teams almost as much as their own victory, but now they’ll need to be ready for a tough match against another side fighting to turn their season around.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 5-2 against the Bombers since 2018.
Best Bet
Both sides aren't in the best form so I like the chances of a low scoring affair under lights. The Under is also 4-0 in the Bombers last 4 interstate matches.
Richmond Tigers (15th) vs Fremantle Dockers (11th)
Richmond always knew this season would be a bit of a rollercoaster with a young squad, but they’d be happy with the glimpses of a better future, even after last week’s loss to Brisbane. The Tigers managed to give the reigning champions a run for their money, with their young stars shining and the midfield putting up a solid fight. The next step for them is to be consistently competitive, especially against a Fremantle team that’s starting to hit its stride.
Fremantle has shaken off a slow start to the season and is starting to find its rhythm, even though injuries are still a concern. The Dockers set up their win over the Bulldogs with a six-goal run just before halftime, showing off a more attacking style of play. This shift could be just what they need to take advantage of a Richmond side that’s still learning the ropes.
Stadium Record
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Should be good conditions for footy and the Tigers have been leaking pts. So I like the Over, which is 7-0 when the Dockers are playing interstate.
St Kilda Saints (7th) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (4th)
St Kilda is quickly proving it’s not just a surprise anymore and is becoming one of the most exciting teams in the competition, averaging 107 points per game over its three consecutive wins. The Saints managed to shake off a rough record at Adelaide Oval to defeat Port Adelaide and now have a chance to make their week in the city of churches even better with a win over another finals contender.
Greater Western Sydney had little trouble in their dominant win over an injury-hit West Coast, and what’s even more concerning for the competition is that their 'Orange Tsunami' game is starting to click. The Giants still have a multi-faceted attack that hasn’t quite hit full gear yet but could really test St Kilda’s defence, which is known for being dangerous when it transitions from defence to attack.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 1-0 at this venue since 2018. Greater Western Sydney are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head is tied at 4-4 (1 draw) since 2018.
Best Bet
I think the Saints are playing great footy and get the benefit of playing in Adelaide back-to-back. They've also covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Giants.
Port Adelaide Power (12th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (1st)
Port Adelaide is in danger of watching its finals hopes slip away after two disappointing losses to teams that didn’t make the top eight last year. But the Power still have a big chance to turn things around at Gather Round with a statement win over the high-flying Hawks, a team they famously beat in a classic final just six games ago.
Hawthorn has been hit with the news that Will Day will be out for a while, but the rest of the team has had a chance to freshen up after a bye week. The Hawks have already dealt with key injuries during their undefeated start to the season and showed in last year’s finals that they can still push the Power, even without their star midfielder.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide holds a 6-4 record. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 4-1 record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Power have been struggling this year and I think the Hawks will want to get some revenge after their finals exit at this venue last season. Hawthorn are 9-2 ATS in interstate games too.
