Old rivals Collingwood and Carlton kick off Round 4 at the MCG on Thursday night footy. Can the Blues avoid a 0-4 start or will the Pies continue their winning ways? Here is a preview of all the AFL Round 4 action.
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs Carlton Blues (16th)
Collingwood’s season has been a bit of a rollercoaster, but they went into the bye with a winning record after edging out the Western Bulldogs in a thriller. They’ve got a great chance to keep that momentum going and put even more pressure on Carlton, especially since they’ve had the upper hand in this rivalry, winning 10 of their last 12 clashes.
Carlton is in serious danger of slipping out of finals contention before their season even gets going, making this showdown with Collingwood a must-win. The Blues have struggled after halftime, getting outscored by a combined 89 points in their three games so far. If they don’t finish stronger this week, they could be staring at a brutal 0-4 start — a far cry from the 4-0 record they had at this stage last season.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are looking for a 7th straight win at the MCG. Carlton are 1-4 at the MCG in their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 10-2 against the Blues since 2018.
Best Bet
The Under has saluted in the Blues last 9 games as they struggle to hit the scoreboard so I think the trend keeps on going this Thursday night as the Pies defence has been strong.
Same Game Multi
The Blues should be desperate for a win and I think they can get within 2 goals. Charlie Curnow is back from injury, Kemp kicked 5 last week and Cripps has a good record against the Pies. Last season, the margin in both games between the two sides was 3 and 6 pts as well. Daicos comes off 39 disposals and I don't think the Blues will be able to stop him getting 30+ touches.
Under 168.5 / Carlton +12.5 / Daicos 30+ = $5.50
Geelong Cats (9th) vs Melbourne Demons (17th)
Geelong has had a tough reminder of how fine the margins can be, with two close losses knocking them out of the top eight and back into the chasing pack. But they’ll be happy to return to their home turf, especially against a Melbourne side they’ve dominated at this venue—winning 22 of their last 25 meetings here.
Melbourne came into the season looking for a quick return to finals contention, but instead, they’re fighting to prove their premiership window isn’t shutting. Back-to-back shock losses to teams that finished in the bottom six last year have put them in a tough spot, and they’ll need a massive turnaround to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2012.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. Melbourne are 1-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 3-2 against the Cats in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Over is 7-1 in this matchup when the Cats are at home and the Dees have been giving up plenty of points.
Gold Coast Suns (4th) vs Adelaide Crows (2nd)
Gold Coast is set for one of its biggest games yet, taking on Adelaide in a clash between two teams on the rise. Both sides are looking to jump from outside the eight last year into the top four, and the Suns have already made a statement with two dominant wins. Another victory here would not only keep the momentum going but also mark just the second time in their 15 seasons they’ve started 3-0.
Adelaide’s rebuild is finally paying off, but few expected their rise to be this explosive. The Crows have won all three games so far—and done it in style, averaging 53-point victories while winning every quarter. Another big performance here would not only cement their hot start but could also see them snatch top spot from the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Carrara. Adelaide are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Suns hold a 3-2 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
Both sides are looking impressive so I think the Over looks the best bet between these two. The Over is also 9-0 in the Crows last 9-day games.
Richmond Tigers (15th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
Richmond’s round-one excitement feels like a distant memory after back-to-back heavy losses, averaging a 77-point margin. The Tigers have already had a couple of reality checks, and now they face an even bigger challenge against the reigning premiers. At this point, the focus might be less on winning and more on damage control while giving their young players a chance to learn from the best.
Brisbane has absolutely dominated Richmond in their last two meetings, winning by an average of 100 points, so another blowout wouldn’t be a shock. Despite starting their premiership defence with three straight wins, the Lions have somehow flown under the radar. But with momentum building, they’re looking more dangerous by the week—bad news for the Tigers as they take on last year’s wooden spooners.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head-to-head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
The Tigers have been smashed in the last 2 weeks and they usually struggle in day games, going 0-12 ATS. The Lions head to the MCG for the first time since winning the GF and I think they'll get a big win.
North Melbourne Kangaroos (10th) vs Sydney Swans (11th)
North Melbourne put up a solid fight against a red-hot Adelaide last week before the Crows pulled away late in the third quarter. But the Kangaroos showed enough to prove their big win over Melbourne wasn’t just a one-off. Now, they’re back on their home turf for a tough challenge against Sydney—a team they’ve only beaten once since 2015.
Sydney has been living on the edge, playing in back-to-back thrillers—falling just short against Brisbane before edging out Fremantle. With a bye in between, the Swans will be hoping that win sparks some momentum, but they know just how tight the competition is as they look to keep pace with the early frontrunners.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-3 in their last 6 games at Marvel. Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Swans are 8-1 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
I think the Roos matchup well against Sydney and there's no Gulden/Mills for the Swans. But I also like the Over under the roof, it's saluted in the last 5 meetings.
GWS Giants (5th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
GWS had the perfect chance to make a statement last week after a hot start with the breeze against Hawthorn, but they couldn’t hold on and ended up getting overrun. They’ll have to wait for another shot to prove they’re genuine contenders this season, but first, they need to take care of business and avoid a costly slip-up against a desperate Eagles side still chasing its first win.
West Coast might be 0-3, but they’ve shown some positive signs, regularly coming out firing before fading as the game goes on. The challenge now is staying in the contest for longer and finding a way to break through for that elusive first win under new coach Andrew McQualter.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 3-4 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Giants hold a 3-2 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Eagles played well in their first interstate game of the season at the Gabba so that gives them some hope of catching up with the Giants here. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS when they play a top-8 side too.
Port Adelaide Power (12th) vs St Kilda Saints (7th)
Port Adelaide started the season with big ambitions of making a Grand Final push under Ken Hinkley, but things haven’t gone to plan. A win over Richmond was sandwiched between two concerning losses, and they’ll be eager to turn things around. The good news? They’ve dominated St Kilda in recent years, winning 14 of their last 15 matchups.
St Kilda wasn’t expected to be a serious contender this season, but they’ve surprised plenty by cracking into the top eight. A shock win over Geelong followed by a dominant performance against Richmond has them full of confidence. But they’ll get a real test this week against a fired-up Port side—especially given their struggles at Adelaide Oval, where they’ve won just three times in 19 attempts.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. St Kilda are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 8-1 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
The Saints are playing good footy and I give them a good chance of upsetting the Power in Adelaide. The away side has a 10-1 ATS record in this matchup too.
Fremantle Dockers (13th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
Fremantle got things back on track with a big win over rival West Coast, but the real test is whether they can match it with the top teams. One positive sign was hitting triple figures on the scoreboard, showing they’re starting to add some attacking flair rather than relying solely on their defence and strong midfield.
The Western Bulldogs have fought their way into the top eight with back-to-back wins, even with key players like captain Marcus Bontempelli sidelined. A win over Fremantle would be another big step toward locking in a finals spot, but just as important is the experience they’re giving their young guns while still banking wins.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. The Bulldogs are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Bulldogs are 6-4 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Despite injuries to key players, the Doggies are playing a tough brand of footy. Freo has lost 4 of their last 5 as a favourite and I think they'll find the Dogs tough to put away.
