2025 AFL Round 3 Betting Predictions
Round 3 features a top 4 clash between the Giants and Hawks, then the WA derby to complete the round. Here is a preview and best bets for each game.
Essendon Bombers (16th) vs Port Adelaide Power (11th)
Essendon has been stuck in a bit of a rut for the past few seasons, but things could get worse after a rough start to this year, especially after letting Adelaide score 25 goals last week. Coach Brad Scott insists the team isn't in rebuild mode and expects them to compete every week, but now it's up to the younger players to prove they’re ready to step up and show they can perform.
Port Adelaide bounced back from a disappointing loss to Collingwood with a solid win over Richmond last week, answering some of the criticism they were facing. Now, facing Essendon at home, they’ll be up against a different challenge. However, with 11 wins from their last 12 games at the venue, the Power will be feeling confident heading into the clash.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Port Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 8-2 against the Bombers.
Best Bet
I think both sides will come out and attack the footy, leading to a high-scoring clash under the roof. Port are 8-0 against the Over in March too.
Same Game Multi
Confidence is low at the Bombers so I like the Power to win. They love playing at Marvel with an 11-1 ATS record. Rozee has started the season with 35 and 39 touches, so he should be a lock for 30+ with Butters out of the side.
Over 183.5 / Connor Rozee 30+ disposals / Port Adelaide WIN = $4.30
Carlton Blues (14th) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)
Carlton showed some good signs last week when they pushed Hawthorn, which at least suggested they bounced back from their upset loss to Richmond. But now, they need to turn those positive signs into actual results, with the risk of starting the season 0-3 and lingering doubts after their late-season fade last year.
The Western Bulldogs gave Collingwood a real run for their money in their 100th-anniversary match, but the heartbreaking loss still leaves them in a big group of teams that need to prove themselves. This game against a fellow finals contender will give them a clearer idea of where they stand, with their evenly-matched midfielders likely to play a major role in the outcome.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Marvel. The Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 3 games against the Blues.
Best Bet
The Blues have looked well below par this season and the Dogs are missing plenty of talent. So I like the chances of a low-scoring Friday night grind.
Melbourne Demons (15th) vs Gold Coast Suns (6th)
Melbourne faces what might be the perfect opponent after their humiliating loss to North Melbourne last week. While the Suns aren't pushovers anymore, the Demons have a strong record against them, winning 15 of the 18 meetings, including the last 12 straight since 2015.
Gold Coast has only played one game so far, thanks to a postponed opener and an early bye, but they’re already sitting in the top eight after a dominant first-up win. It looks like the Suns are finally ready to leave their inconsistent past behind, especially after a rare road win over the Eagles. A victory at the MCG could make an even bigger statement about their rise.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the MCG. In their last 5 games at the MCG, Gold Coast holds a 3-2 record.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 8-0 against the Suns since 2018.
Best Bet
The Suns looked excellent in their first game and winning away from home is a good sign for this matchup. The Dees will likely struggle with a few injuries in their backline so I like the chances of the Over. It's 3-0 in the last 3 meetings.
St Kilda Saints (12th) vs Richmond Tigers (13th)
St Kilda bounced back from a tough start and a loss in Adelaide with a thrilling win over Geelong, even though they were hanging on at the end. They’ve made Marvel Stadium a bit of a fortress, winning seven of their last eight games there, and now they'll host the rebuilding Tigers.
Richmond was always going to have a season full of ups and downs, and they’ve already experienced both. After a surprising win over Carlton, they were brought back to reality by Port Adelaide. The young Tigers will likely need to hold onto the small victories, like outscoring the Power in the final quarter, with a stronger start to the game a key focus, especially after only kicking two goals in the opening halves of their first two matches.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 5-4 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Marvel. Richmond are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 4-1 against the Tigers in the last 5.
Best Bet
The Tigers hate playing at Marvel as they're 0-11 ATS. I think the Saints were impressive at this venue last week and their forward line should be very tough to handle for the young Tiges.
Hawthorn Hawks (1st) vs GWS Giants (3rd)
Hawthorn has made a strong start to the season, winning all three of their matches while most of the other teams have played fewer games. With a win over GWS, the Hawks can solidify their spot at the top of the ladder before heading into their first bye.
Greater Western Sydney is confident in its ability to win anywhere, anytime. After pulling off a win against Melbourne in their only visit to the MCG this season, they'll hit the road again for a crucial match against Hawthorn. The Giants have the roster and the form to be serious contenders for the top four, and another win over the high-flying Hawks would make a strong statement.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 8-2 in their last 10 games at UTAS Stadium. GWS are 1-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Giants have won 4 games against the Hawks.
Best Bet
Should be a tight and tough clash between these top 4 sides. As the Under is 5-0 in this matchup, I think it's a safe bet.
Brisbane Lions (5th) vs Geelong Cats (7th)
Brisbane is set to host Geelong three weeks after their original preliminary final rematch was supposed to happen. The delay might have worked in their favour, as they've had a couple of matches to fine-tune their game. The Lions started slow in their first two games, having to chase down the Swans and Eagles, but they've still managed to kick off their premiership defence with two wins, despite not yet playing their best footy.
Geelong seemed to be cruising after a huge win over Fremantle to start the season, but a loss to St Kilda quickly brought them back to reality. Now, the Cats are heading back on the road to face a familiar opponent in Brisbane. However, they should have confidence going into this game, as they've won 10 of their last 15 clashes at the Gabba.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 8-1 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Gabba. Geelong are 3-2 in their last 5 games at Gabba.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Cats are 6-4 against the Lions.
Best Bet
The Lions were lucky to beat the lowly Eagles at home and I think the Cats will be looking to bounce back. They usually play well at the Gabba and against Brisbane too.
Adelaide Crows (2nd) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (8th)
Adelaide is finally showing its potential after spending seven seasons out of finals and mostly in the wilderness. The Crows have made an impressive start with two big wins, taking down teams they've often finished around in recent years. But with tougher challenges ahead, they’ll want to make sure they don’t slip up against a North Melbourne team that’s also starting to rise.
North Melbourne has struggled through a rough five-season stretch, but they’ve now had a taste of what the future could look like after a stirring win over Melbourne. The Kangaroos dominated the midfield, outclassing one of the top on-ball units and racking up their second-highest score since 2019. This performance has sparked fresh hope for what’s to come.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 6-3 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. North Melbourne have never won at the Adelaide Oval in their 11 games.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Crows hold a 5-0 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Love the Roos performance last week and how good are the Crows looking! So I like the chances of a high scoring affair between these two. The Over is 12-0 in March as it presents nice conditions for attacking footy.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Fremantle Dockers (17th)
West Coast showed a lot of spirit in their challenge against reigning premiers Brisbane, starting strong before being overrun for a second straight defeat. This has left the Eagles at the bottom of the ladder once again, but they now have a chance to leap over their heated rivals, Fremantle, who are just one spot above them and still clinging to hopes of a finals campaign.
Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir was fine with his side playing "vanilla" football in the pre-season, but it's becoming harder to shake off that label after only scoring 134 points in two losses to start the year. The Dockers might now look to release the shackles and bring more firepower to their attack, but they'll need to be cautious of their arch-rivals, who caused an upset in this fixture last year.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Fremantle are 2-2 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Dockers have won 6 games against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The derby should be hotly contested as usual, especially with both WA sides sitting at the bottom of the ladder. Ultimately, I liked the Eagles performance last week at the Gabba and Freo are struggling to convert up forward, which should keep the Eagles in the game.
