2025 AFL Round 24 Betting Predictions
It's the last round of the AFL regular season and spots in the top 8 are still up for grabs. Here is a preview of every game this weekend, starting with a rivalry matchup between the Bombers and Blues at the MCG on Thursday night.
Essendon (15th) vs Carlton (12th)
The Bombers come into this clash with the Blues in a real slump, sitting 15th on the ladder and riding an 11-game losing streak. They’ve only managed six wins all season, with a 4-6 record at home and a tough 2-9 on the road. Last week was another heartbreaker, going down by just two points to the Saints at Docklands. Despite the struggles, there were some standouts — Mason Redman racked up 36 disposals, Andrew McGrath added 35, and Liam McMahon slotted three goals. The Bombers actually shine when it comes to ball use, ranking 3rd in the AFL for disposals, but their weaknesses are holding them back — they sit near the bottom for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50 entries. They’ll need to tidy up those areas fast if they want to stop the slide against a tough Blues outfit.
The Blues head into this matchup with the Bombers sitting 12th on the ladder, holding an 8-14 record for the season. They’ve been a bit up and down, going 2-3 across their last five, but they’re coming off a huge 54-point win over Port Adelaide at Docklands where they piled on 18 goals. Harry McKay was dominant up forward with seven majors, while George Hewett was everywhere with 35 touches. The Blues have been solid at home with a 5-7 record, though their away form has struggled at 3-7. One of their big strengths is their pressure — they rank 4th in the AFL for tackling, which is a key part of their game. With a win already under their belt last week, they’ll be looking to build on that momentum against the Bombers.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 3-6 (1 draws) in their last 10 games at this venue. Carlton are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Blues have won 7 games against the Bombers.
Best Bet
Carlton should get the job done against the injury ravaged Bombers but you never know which Carlton side is going to turn up. So I'll stick with the safer Under bet, which is 6-0 when the Blues play on Thursday night footy.
Same Game Multi
Flynn Young kicked 2 goals last week and has a good chance of kicking a few more against the struggling Bombers. For Essendon, Archie Perkins also bagged 2 goals last round and has 4 goals in his last 4 games.
Under 166.5 / Flynn Young Anytime Goalscorer / Archie Perkins Anytime Goalscorer = $6.50
Collingwood (4th) vs Melbourne (14th)
The Magpies take on the Demons looking to snap out of a rough patch, having lost their last three and only managing one win from their past five. Despite sitting 4th on the ladder with a solid 15-7 record, recent form has been shaky, highlighted by a narrow three-point loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval last week. They’ve been strong at home with an 8-3 record and reliable on the road at 7-4, so the foundations are there. The Pies bring plenty of pressure — they lead the AFL in tackling — but they’ve struggled in a couple of key areas, ranking just 14th for both clearances and disposals. With 15 wins already on the board, they’ll be desperate to steady the ship and bounce back against Melbourne.
The Demons come into this clash with the Magpies sitting 14th on the ladder and struggling to find consistency, with a 7-15 record for the season. They’ve only picked up one win from their last five games and are currently on a two-game losing streak, their most recent outing a 36-point defeat to the Hawks at the MCG. Christian Salem was a standout with 30 touches, but overall the Demons couldn’t keep up. Their home record sits at 5-7, while they’ve really struggled on the road with just two wins from 10 games. One of their big issues this year has been tackling pressure, ranking 14th in the league, and it’s an area they’ll need to lift in if they’re any chance of turning things around against the Pies.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 6-4 in their last 10 games at MCG. Melbourne are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Magpies hold a 8-2 record.
Best Bet
The Pies need a win before the finals and they are 8-2 against the Dees, who are playing for pride.
Port Adelaide (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (9th)
The Power head into their matchup with the Suns in a tough spot, sitting 13th on the ladder with an 8-14 record and riding a five-game losing streak. They’ve dropped all of their last five, including a heavy 54-point defeat to the Blues at Docklands where Jack Whitlock was one of the few positives, kicking three goals. At home they’ve been serviceable with a 6-5 record, but their away form has been poor at 2-9. Statistically, they’ve struggled to hit the scoreboard and find enough of the ball, ranking 15th in the AFL for both goals kicked and disposals. With confidence low and the season slipping away, the Power will be desperate to turn things around against the Suns.
The Suns head into this clash with the Power sitting just outside the top eight in 9th spot, holding a strong 14-7 record for the season. They’ve been impressive at home with an 8-2 record and solid enough on the road at 6-5, though they’re coming off a 35-point loss to the Giants at Carrara. Noah Anderson was a standout in that game with 32 touches. Statistically, the Suns are one of the more dangerous sides in the comp — they rank 1st for inside 50s, 4th for both clearances and goals kicked, and 5th for tackling. With three wins from their last five, they’ll be eager to bounce back quickly and keep their finals push on track against a struggling Power outfit.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Power are 14-2 against the Suns.
Best Bet
The Over has gone 4-0 in the Power's last 4 games and I think the Suns will be able to kick 100+ pts.
North Melbourne (16th) vs Adelaide Crows (1st)
The Kangaroos head into their clash with the Crows sitting 16th on the ladder with a 5-16 record, but they’ll take some confidence from last week’s big 48-point win over Richmond at Bellerive Oval where they piled on 20 goals. It was a breakout performance with Harry Sheezel racking up a massive 54 disposals, Luke Davies-Uniacke collecting 40, Luke Parker adding 30, while Paul Curtis kicked five goals and Cooper Trembath chipped in with three. Despite their struggles this year, the Roos have shown some strength around stoppages, ranking 3rd in the AFL for clearances, though they’ve really battled getting the ball inside 50, sitting 17th in that area. Their home record stands at 3-1-7, while they’ve only managed two wins from 11 away games. With just one win in their last five, they’ll be hoping last week’s result sparks some late-season momentum.
The Crows head into their clash with the Kangaroos flying at the top of the ladder, sitting 1st with a dominant 17-5 record and riding an eight-game winning streak. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home with an 11-1 record and solid enough away at 6-4. Last week they edged out Collingwood in a tight one at Adelaide Oval, getting over the line by three points while slotting nine goals. Statistically, the Crows are one of the most well-rounded sides in the comp — they rank 2nd for tackling, 3rd for goals kicked, 5th for clearances, and 5th for inside 50s. With five straight wins behind them and their confidence sky-high, they’ll be looking to keep their top spot secure with another strong showing against North Melbourne.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Adelaide are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Crows are 8-2 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Crows may rest players but I still like the Over against the Roos. It's 7-1 when the Crows are at Marvel and the Kangaroos are coming off scoring 130+ pts.
Richmond (17th) vs Geelong Cats (2nd)
The Tigers head into their clash with the Cats sitting 17th on the ladder with a tough 5-17 record and coming off a heavy 48-point loss to the Kangaroos at Bellerive Oval. Thomas Lynch and Seth Campbell both kicked three goals in that game, but it wasn’t enough to stop the slide as the Tigers slumped to their fourth straight defeat. Their home form hasn’t been great at 4-7, and it’s been even worse on the road with just one win from 11. Statistically, it’s been a rough season across the board — they rank near the bottom in disposals, clearances, goals, inside 50s and tackling. With just one win from their last five, Richmond will need something special to turn things around against a much stronger Cats side.
The Cats roll into their clash with the Tigers sitting 2nd on the ladder and in red-hot form, winning their last five games to hold a 16-6 record for the season. They were too strong for the Swans in Round 23, cruising to a 43-point win at the SCG after booting 16 goals. Tyson Stengle, Shaun Mannagh, and Shannon Neale all hit the scoreboard with multiple goals, while Bailey Smith was busy through the midfield with 30 disposals. The Cats have been rock solid at home with a 9-2 record and strong away at 7-4, and their stats back it up — they rank 2nd in the comp for goals, 3rd for both inside 50s and tackling. With their confidence sky-high and finals around the corner, they’ll be looking to keep their winning streak rolling against a struggling Richmond outfit.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at MCG, Richmond holds a 1-4 record. Geelong are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Crows are 8-2 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
This is a game where the 2nd placed Cats will be looking to get out of there with a win and no major injuries. The Tigers are 9-1 against the Under at the G and I don't see them scoring 50+ pts against Geelong.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Sydney Swans (10th)
The Eagles come into their clash with the Swans anchored to the bottom of the ladder, sitting 18th with just one win from 22 games this season. It’s been a nightmare run, with 12 straight losses and a winless record on the road, while their lone victory came at home where they’re 1-9. Last week was another tough outing, smashed by 94 points against the Bulldogs at Docklands, managing just five goals for the game. Statistically, the Eagles have struggled across the board — ranked last in clearances and disposals, and near the bottom for goals, inside 50s, and tackling. With only one win all year and form not improving, they’ll be up against it again when they face the Swans.
The Swans head into their clash with the Eagles sitting 10th on the ladder with an even 11-11 record, still right in the finals mix. They’ve gone 3-2 across their last five but are coming off a tough 43-point loss to the Cats at the SCG. At home they’ve been patchy with a 5-6 record, but they’ve held their own on the road at 6-5. With 11 wins and 11 losses for the season, Sydney will be desperate to bounce back quickly and steady things against a struggling Eagles side, especially with finals hopes still on the line.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Sydney are 7-3 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Swans have won 4 games against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Swans don't mind the trip to Perth, covering in their last 5 and should handle the lowly Eagles.
GWS Giants (6th) vs St Kilda (11th)
The Giants come into this one against the Saints sitting 6th on the ladder with a strong 15-7 record and some good form behind them, winning four of their last five. They’re on a two-game winning streak after taking care of the Suns by 35 points in Round 23, booting 17 goals at Carrara. Harry Rowston was lively up forward with four goals while Max Gruzewski chipped in with three. Stat-wise, the Giants are one of the better sides with the ball, ranking 5th in the league for both disposals and goals kicked, though they’ve had their struggles around stoppages, sitting 15th for clearances. They’ve been consistent at home with a 7-3 record and even better on the road at 8-4, making them a dangerous matchup as they look to keep building momentum.
The Saints head into their clash with the Giants sitting 11th on the ladder with a 9-13 record, but they’ve found some form late in the season with four wins from their last five, including a nail-biting two-point victory over Essendon in Round 23 at Docklands. They kicked 11 goals in that one, with Jack Higgins and Cooper Sharman both finishing with three each. While their season overall has been up and down, they’re currently riding a four-game winning streak and will be hoping to keep that momentum rolling. Statistically, inside 50s have been a weakness — they sit 14th in the AFL in that area — and their home and away splits reflect the inconsistency, going 5-7 at home and 4-6 on the road. Still, with confidence high, they’ll fancy themselves to give the Giants a real contest.
Stadium Record
GWS are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. St Kilda are 2-2 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Giants hold a 5-4 (1 draws) record.
Best Bet
GWS could be playing for a home final and the Saints are just playing for pride. St Kilda are also 0-7 against top eight teams and I think the Giants will be looking to warm up for the finals with a big win.
Greater Western Sydney Giants -31.5 = $1.90
Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Fremantle (7th)
The Bulldogs head into their clash with the Dockers sitting 8th on the ladder with a 14-8 record and riding a four-game winning streak. They were ruthless last week, smashing the Eagles by 94 points at Docklands and piling on 19 goals. Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Dale dominated through the middle with 31 and 34 disposals, while Aaron Naughton, Rhylee West, Sam Darcy, and Sam Davidson all chipped in with three goals each. Stat-wise, the Dogs are elite in just about every key area — they lead the AFL in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, while also ranking 4th for inside 50s. Their only real weakness has been tackling, where they sit 15th. With seven wins both home and away and their form peaking at the right time, the Bulldogs look like serious contenders as they push to lock in their finals spot.
The Dockers head into their clash with the Bulldogs sitting 7th on the ladder with a strong 15-7 record, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after a heavy 57-point loss to the Lions at Perth Stadium. Despite that setback, their recent form has been solid with four wins from their last five, and they’ve been tough to beat at home (8-3) while also holding their own on the road (7-4). Statistically, their biggest weakness has been ball use, ranking just 16th in the AFL for disposals, but they’ve still managed to rack up plenty of wins through pressure and efficiency. With finals around the corner, the Dockers will be eager to hit back hard against a Bulldogs side that’s also in form.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 2-3 in their last 5 games at Docklands.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 3-2 record against the Dockers.
Best Bet
The winner of this game will likely make the top 8 so this is a massive clash. I think the Dogs get the job done at home but the Over is a bit more enticing, it's 5-0 in this matchup and should be good scoring conditions under the roof.
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Hawthorn (5th)
The Lions head into their clash with the Hawks sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 15-6 record, fresh off a big 57-point win over Fremantle at Perth Stadium where they booted 15 goals. Logan Morris was lively up forward with four majors, Charlie Cameron added three, and Jaspa Fletcher was busy in the middle with 32 disposals. They’ve been rock-solid away from home with a 9-1-2 record, though not quite as dominant at the Gabba at 6-4. Stat-wise, the Lions are elite around stoppages and with the footy — they rank 1st in the AFL for clearances, 2nd for disposals, and 2nd for inside 50s — but their tackling pressure is a weak spot, sitting 16th. With three wins from their last five and momentum building again, they’ll be keen to back it up against Hawthorn.
The Hawks come into their clash with the Lions in strong form, sitting 5th on the ladder with a 15-7 record and four wins from their last five. They were impressive last week, knocking off Melbourne by 36 points at the MCG after kicking 13 goals, with Jack Gunston turning back the clock with seven majors and Dylan Moore racking up 32 touches. At home they’ve been almost unbeatable with a 10-1 record, while their away form sits at 5-6. Statistically, the Hawks are one of the better ball-winning sides in the comp, ranking 4th for disposals, and with two straight wins under their belt, they’ll be looking to carry that momentum into a huge test against Brisbane.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 3-2 in their last 5 games at Gabba. Hawthorn are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Hawks have won 4 games against the Lions.
Best Bet
Huge game for both sides and a home final could be up for grabs so I can see a close contest. Brisbane haven't been great at home this year and the underdog is 5-0 when these two sides meet.
Gold Coast Suns (9th) vs Essendon (15th)
The Suns went down in a nail-biter on Friday night, losing 71-67 against the Power. They were dominated in the midfield as Anderson and Rowell had quiet games for their standards. Ben King and Ben Long both kicked 3 goals but it just wasn't enough against Port, who were highly motivated in Boak's last game. Now it means the Suns must win on Wednesday night to reach the AFL finals for the very first time. Luckily, I think they have an easy matchup against the injury riddled Bombers who will be looking forward to the offseason. It's also on the Gold Coast, where the Suns have won 4 of their last 5 games.
For the Bombers, they sit 15th on the ladder and they come off a 34 pt loss against the Blues in what has been a tough season for them. Injuries to key players have been the main story. However, they have blooded a lot of youngsters which should help them rebuild in the future. They head to the Gold Coast for the last game of the season and will be looking to spoil the party. However, they haven't won since R11 against the Tigers and I don't see that streak ending on Wednesday night.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 3-6 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Suns are 3-2 against the Bombers in the last 5.
Best Bet
It's a must win game for the Suns and I think they get the job done in front of their home fans. But I don't see the Bombers getting blown out, they have some key players back in the lineup and have a decent record against the Suns. So I think the 1-39 margin offers nice value for the home side.
