2025 AFL Round 22 Betting Predictions
Only 3 rounds remain and the AFL top 8 is far from settled. Round 22 starts with a massive clash between the Hawks and Pies at the G on Thursday night footy.
Hawthorn (7th) vs Collingwood (2nd)
The Hawks are ticking along with a 13–7 record but just came unstuck at Adelaide Oval, going down 101–87 to the Crows despite Jack Gunston nabbing four majors. They’ve been a fortress at home (8–1) but only scrapped together five wins on the road (5–6), and they’re sitting seventh on the ladder. Their engine room is solid - they’re fourth in the AFL for disposals and third for tackling - so if they can bottle that intensity for four quarters, they’ll fancy their chances against the Magpies. With three wins in their last five, expect Hawthorn to bounce back hard in this one, especially with a top 8 spot on the line.
Steele Sidebottom hits the 350-game milestone as the Pies look to bounce back from a 27-point loss to the Lions at the MCG. Collingwood sit second on the ladder at 15–5, and they’ve been deadly on the road (7–2) as well as at home (8–3). They’re one of the best for both goals (fifth in the AFL) and tackling (fourth), even if they’ve stumbled just once lately. With two wins in their last five and a star veteran celebrating a huge career mark, expect Collingwood to bring the heat against the Hawks at the G.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 7-3 in their last 10 games at MCG. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Collingwood hold a 7-3 record.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Hawks hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
I'm going with the omen bet as Sidebottom brings up 350 games and he loves playing the Hawks. He's picked up 27 or more touches in his last 7 against them. He's also beaten 20+ in his last 2 games as well.
Steele Sidebottom 20+ Disposals = $1.60
Same Game Multi
In his pursuit of a first Brownlow, Nick Daicos is on fire at the moment and has been hitting the scoreboard too. He's kicked a goal in his last 8 games when the Pies are at home. I also like the Under, it's 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 games at the MCG and Jeremy Howe's return should fix up the Pies backline.
Under 161.5 pts / Sidebottom 20+ Disposals / Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer = $5.40
Geelong Cats (4th) vs Essendon (15th)
The Cats are on a tear right now - three wins in a row and fresh off that 88-point demolition of Port Adelaide at Kardinia Park (they piled on 23 goals, with Jeremy Cameron bagging six, Jack Martin four as sub and Shannon Neale three). Sitting fourth at 14–6, they’ve been tough both home (8–2) and away (6–4), and their engine room is firing, ranking second in the AFL for goals, fifth for inside-50s and fifth for tackles. Heading into this one against the Bombers, expect Geelong’s firepower and pressure to test Essendon all over the ground.
The Bombers are in a world of pain, sitting 15th on 6–13 and stuck on a nine-game losing skid after going down 68–54 to the Swans at the SCG. They’ve been solid at disposal (top of the AFL for handballs and kicks), but everything else has let them down - 16th for clearances and goals, and 15th for inside-50s. They’ve only won twice away (2–8) and are just 4–5 at home, so facing a rampaging Cats outfit is going to be a massive challenge. Expect Essendon to try and scrap it out through the middle, but unless they find another gear, Geelong’s firepower will be too much.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Cats hold a 8-2 record against the Bombers.
Best Bet
I think the Cats are trying to get Cameron to 100 goals and this is another great matchup. He's kicked 6 goals in his last 2 and I can see him getting near 10+ goals again.
Jeremy Cameron 6+ Goals = $2.20
Richmond (16th) vs St Kilda (14th)
The Tigers are having a horror year at 5–15, and that 107–23 drubbing by the Suns at Carrara shows just how rough it’s been. They’ve lost two straight and only picked up two wins in their last five, with home form sitting at 4–6 and an abysmal 1–9 on the road. Richmond are dead last in clearances, disposals, goals and tackles, so you’d back the Saints to boss the midfield and pile on points. Unless the Tigers can somehow shake off these woes, this one’s a tall order for them.
The Saints have a bit of work to do, but they’ve found some form with back-to-back wins after downing North Melbourne by nine points at Docklands (11 goals on the board). Sitting 14th at 7–13, they’ve been solid enough at home (5–7) but shaky away (2–6), and their inside-50 entries have been a concern (14th in the AFL). With two wins in their last five and a chance to extend that streak, look for St Kilda to use that momentum and pressure the Tigers, especially in front of their home crowd.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 4-1 against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Under is 8-1 in the Tigers last 9 at the G and this should be low scoring too.
Brisbane Lions (3rd) vs Sydney Swans (10th)
The Lions are riding high after thumping Collingwood by 27 points at the MCG in Round 21, kicking 14 goals (shoutout to Logan Morris for bagging six and Henry Smith with three). They sit third on the ladder at 14–5, and they’ve been almost unbeatable on the road (8–1–2) and solid at home (6–3). Their midfield has been a machine - top of the AFL for clearances and second for disposals - and they’ve been strong getting it inside 50 (fourth), though they’ve had some trouble sticking tackles (16th). With four wins in their last five and confidence sky-high, Brisbane will look to keep the momentum rolling against the Swans.
The Swans have just snapped a rough patch with a 14-point win over Essendon at the SCG, kicking nine goals to get back on track. They’re sitting 10th on a 10–10 record, splitting home and away at 5–5 and winning four of their last five. While they’ve shown they can grind out results, their disposal game has been shaky - 16th in the AFL - which could get exposed against the Lions’ dominant midfield.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Lions hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
The key in this one will be the midfield battle and Sydney have a lot of talent with Gulden, Heeney and Warner. So I think they keep this under a 4 goal margin. They'll want some revenge after the Grand Final defeat and almost beat the Lions at the Gabba last year.
Carlton (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (6th)
The Blues have hit a rough patch, dropping two in a row after getting beaten 94–67 by the Dockers at Perth Stadium. Sitting 13th on a 7–13 record, they’ve only managed one win in their last five and have struggled to hit the scoreboard - 14th in the AFL for goals kicked. On the bright side, they’re hard at the contest, sitting fourth for clearances and second for tackles. With a 4–6 home record and 3–7 away, they’ll need to lean on that midfield grit to slow down the Suns if they want to climb off the bottom.
The Suns are on a roll, sitting sixth on the ladder at 13–6 and fresh off an 84-point demolition of Richmond at Carrara (16 goals in total, with Ben King bagging four and Bailey Humphrey three). They’ve won four of their last five and are particularly tough to beat at home (8–1), though they’ve been only even on the road (5–5). Their engine room is elite - second in the AFL for clearances, third for inside-50s and fourth for goals kicked - so expect them to dominate the contest and pile on the pressure against a Blues side that’s been scrambling lately.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 3-2 against the Suns in the last 5.
Best Bet
The Under is 4-0 when these two play at night and the Suns aren't the best travelling team in the AFL.
Port Adelaide (11th) vs Fremantle (5th)
The Power have had a rough season at 8–12, sitting 11th and on a three-game skid after getting thrashed 153–65 by the Cats at Kardinia Park - even Mitchell Georgiades’ three goals couldn’t stop the rout. They’ve only managed one win in their last five, have been solid at home (6–4) but dreadful on the road (2–8), and they’re struggling to win the ball (14th in disposals) or finish it off (15th in goals kicked). Going up against the Dockers, Port Adelaide will need a massive lift if they want to snap this slide.
The Dockers are flying high on a four-game winning streak, fresh off a 27-point win over Carlton at Perth Stadium where they piled on 15 goals (shoutout to Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss for bagging three each). Sitting fifth at 14–6, they’ve been tough both home (8–2) and away (6–4), though they’ve had some trouble winning the ball - 15th in disposals. Still, with four wins in their last five, expect Fremantle’s firepower and confidence to keep rolling against a Port Adelaide side that’s been struggling, especially on the road.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval, Port Adelaide hold a 4-6 record. Fremantle are 3-12 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 3-2 record against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Port has an impressive 7-0 home record against the Dockers and if they can start well, I think they can cover a 27 point margin.
GWS Giants (8th) vs North Melbourne (17th)
The Giants have been solid lately with four wins from five, but they hit a speed bump in their last outing at Docklands, getting thumped 132–44 by the Bulldogs. Sitting eighth on a 13–7 record, they’ve been consistent both away (7–4) and at home (6–3), yet they’ve struggled around the stoppages - 15th in clearances - which can hurt them against teams that dominate the middle. After that heavy loss, expect GWS to sharpen up through the midfield and lean on their momentum as they take on North Melbourne.
The Kangaroos are really struggling this season at 4–15, sitting rock bottom on the ladder and on a six-game losing streak after that 78–69 defeat to St Kilda at Docklands (with Nick Larkey bagging three goals). They haven’t won in their last five and have been terrible with entries inside 50 - dead last in the AFL. They’re a dismal 2–8 away and only 2–1–7 at home, so taking on a fired-up Giants side will be a tall order unless North Melbourne can find some spark.
Stadium Record
GWS are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 1-0 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5.
Best Bet
North showed a bit of shinboner spirit last week against the Saints and they're 4-0 ATS when they face the Giants away from home.
Melbourne (12th) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)
Fresh off the bombshell news that premiership coach Simon Goodwin was shown the door this week, the Demons will look to bounce back when they take on the Bulldogs. They’re sitting 12th at 7–13 but just snapped a two-game skid with an 83-point demolition of West Coast at Docklands - 21 goals on the board, including four from Bayley Fritsch and three each from Harrison Petty and Harvey Langford. Even so, they’ve been patchy in the midfield (14th for clearances) and sloppy in the tackle (14th again), and their form on the road (2–7) has been woeful compared to the D’s more solid 5–6 at home. With only two wins in their last five, expect Melbourne to be fired up under interim leadership, but consistency will be the question against a Bulldogs side.
The Bulldogs are buzzing after that massive 88-point drubbing of the Giants at Docklands, piling on 19 goals - including five each from Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy, plus three from Lachlan McNeil. They’ve won two in a row and sit ninth on a 12–8 record, looking good both at home (6–4) and away (6–4). Their midfield’s a well-oiled machine - third in the AFL for clearances and disposals - and they’re lethal up forward (top of the league for goals and second for inside-50s), though they could tighten up their tackling (14th). Against the Demons, look for the Dogs to keep firing at both ends of the ground and stretch their winning streak to three.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Teams usually step up after their coach is sacked so look for the Dees to play well. But the Dogs need to win for their top 8 hopes as well. So I like the chances of the Over, it's 7-0 in this matchup and the Doggies usually play in high scoring affairs.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Adelaide Crows (1st)
The Eagles are sitting bottom with a 1–19 record and on a ten-game losing skid after getting smashed 139–56 by the Demons at Docklands. They’ve yet to win away (0–11) and are only 1–8 at home, and it’s easy to see why - they’re dead last for clearances and disposals, second-last for goals, and terrible at getting it inside 50 and sticking tackles. Taking on the Crows, West Coast will need a miracle to snap this slump unless they can somehow tighten up from the contest and find a spark up forward.
The Crows are rolling right now, cruising to a 15–5 record and riding a six-game winning streak after an impressive 14-point win over Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval where they kicked 15 goals (shoutout to Riley Thilthorpe’s four and three each from Taylor Walker and Izak Rankine). They’ve been a fortress at home (10–1) and solid on the road (5–4), and their midfield and forward work is elite - they’re top five in clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, and they lead the league for inside-50 entries and tackling. Sitting first on the ladder, Adelaide should have too much class for the Eagles, who’ve struggled all year.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Adelaide are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Crows have won 5 games against the Eagles.
Best Bet
This matchup will likely get ugly with 1st against 18th. So I think the Over is the best value, it's 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. The Crows will likely kick most of it.
