2025 AFL Round 21 Betting Predictions
The race for top 8 spots is on the line again in Round 21 and we kick off the round with a massive clash between the Dogs and Giants on Thursday night.
Western Bulldogs (9th) vs GWS Giants (6th)
The Bulldogs are riding high after absolutely smashing Essendon by 93 points in Round 20—putting through 22 goals at Docklands—and they’ll look to keep the momentum rolling against the Giants. Sitting ninth on the ladder with an 11–8 record (5–4 at home, 6–4 away), the Dogs have won one in a row and sit 3–2 over their past five outings. They’re a clearance machine (2nd in the AFL), rack up more disposals than anyone (1st), lead the league in goals kicked (1st) and inside 50s (3rd), but they’ve been a bit shaky in the tackling department (14th). Marcus Bontempelli has been everywhere—35 touches last week—while Aaron Naughton, Rhylee West and Sam Darcy combined for 16 majors, so expect the Bulldogs’ powerhouse midfield and forward line to keep firing as they chase another big win.
The Giants are flying high right now, sitting sixth on the ladder with a 13–6 record and riding a six‑game winning streak. They’ve been unstoppable recently (5–0 over their last five matches), especially at The Sydney Showgrounds where they thumped the Swans by 44 points and booted 15 goals—Jake Stringer and Aaron Cadman snagging three each. Adelaide’s midfield has been humming too, ranking fourth in disposals and fifth in goals kicked across the AFL, though they’ve struggled at the clearances end (15th). With a solid 6–3 home record and 7–3 on the road, the Giants will look to keep the momentum rolling when they face the Bulldogs.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel. GWS are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Bulldogs hold a 8-2 record.
Best Bet
I don't see the Giants having any issues travelling to Melbourne as they've covered the line in their last 5 away games. With a 6 game winning streak, I think they can potentially beat the Doggies, who struggle to stop forward lines like the Giants.
Greater Western Sydney Giants +12.5 = $1.90
Same Game Multi
The Over has a perfect 5-0 record when the Dogs are at Marvel and the Giants can kick 100+ pts. Toby Bedford has kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games and bagged 2 goals last week. So he offers nice value to hit the scoreboard.
Giants +12.5 / Over 176.5 pts / Toby Bedford Anytime Goalscorer = $6.75
Adelaide Crows (2nd) vs Hawthorn (5th)
The Crows are smashing it this season, sitting second on the ladder with a 14–5 record and riding a five‑game winning streak into their matchup with the Hawks. They’ve been near‑perfect at home (9–1) and a solid 5–4 on the road, and in Round 20 they blew Port Adelaide away by 98 points at Adelaide Oval—booting 20 goals—with Taylor Walker, Ben Keays and Riley Thilthorpe each snagging three majors and Jake Soligo piling up 35 touches. Adelaide’s attack is a real force (3rd in the AFL for goals kicked and 5th for inside‑50s), plus they’ve been relentless in the contest (3rd in tackling), so look for the Crows to keep their red‑hot form going against Hawthorn.
The Hawks have been ticking along nicely, sitting fifth on the ladder with a 13–6 record and fresh off a 24‑point win over Carlton at the ‘G, where they kicked 13 goals (Jack Gunston bagged three). They’ve been rock solid at home (8–1) and a decent 5–5 on the road, and they’ve won two on the trot, pushing their last five to 4–1. Hawthorn’s midfield is doing the hard work (ranked fifth in disposals) and their pressure game is top‑tier (fourth in tackling), so they’ll fancy their chances of taking on the red‑hot Crows and keeping the momentum rolling.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Another game that I think could see an upset. The Hawks have the wood over the Crows, having covered in the last 5 meetings. The key will be their defence and pressure around the ball.
Melbourne (13th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Demons have had a tough year, sitting 13th with a 6–13 record and dropping their last two games, including a 96–90 loss to St Kilda at Docklands where Bayley Fritsch still managed three goals. They’ve struggled on the road (2–7) and been just below average at home (4–6), going 1–4 across their past five. Melbourne’s tackling has been a real sore spot (14th in the AFL), so they’ll need to tighten up defensively when they head up against the Eagles. With form and pressure both against them, the Dees will be looking for a turnaround.
The Eagles are having a horror season, sitting dead last at 1–18 and on a nine‑game losing streak heading into their clash with the Demons. They’ve yet to win away (0–10) and have only scraped together one home win (1–8), and they were thumped by the Dockers 126–77 at Perth Stadium last time out. Perth’s power has been nowhere to be seen—they’re bottom of the league for clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside‑50s and tackling—so they’ll be desperate for any spark of form against the Dees. At this point, they just need to find something to build on.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Demons hold a 4-1 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
This is really a nothing game as both sides are out of finals contention. So hopefully they play free flowing footy and the Over is 4-0 in this matchup.
Gold Coast Suns (8th) vs Richmond (16th)
The Suns are buzzing after a huge 66‑point win over the Lions at Carrara—booting 20 goals—and they’ll look to keep the good times rolling against the Tigers. Sitting eighth with a 12–6 record (7–1 at home, 5–5 away), they’ve snapped a four‑game skid to start the year with a 4–1 run over their last five and are on a one‑game streak. Gold Coast’s engine room is unstoppable, ranking first in the AFL for clearances and inside‑50s, while they’re also top five for goals kicked (4th) and tackling (5th). Brayden Fiorini racked up 32 touches last time out, Noah Anderson (33), Matthew Rowell (37) and John Noble (31) were prolific, and the forwards—Ben Long (4 goals), Ben Ainsworth and Jy Farrar (3 each), plus Bailey Humphrey—were electric. Expect the Suns’ midfield grunt and scoring power to give the Tigers plenty to worry about.
The Tigers have had a horror run this year, sitting 16th with just a 5–14 record. They’ve been a bit tougher at home (4–6) but can’t buy a win on the road (1–8), and they just copped a 36‑point hiding from the Magpies at the ‘G—though Jacob Hopper still managed 33 touches. Richmond’s form has been dire across the board (bottom five in clearances, disposals, goals, inside‑50s and tackling), so they’ll need a major lift to stand a chance against the Suns’ red‑hot midfield and scoreboard. After going 2–3 over their past five, the Tigers will be desperate to find something to get them moving.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Richmond are 11-3 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
A massive game for the Suns to make the top 8 and their Q-Clash performance was a massive tick. I think they do it easily again but I don't see Richmond scoring over 60 pts, which should see the Under go 5-0 when these 2 sides meet.
Sydney Swans (10th) vs Essendon (15th)
The Swans head into their showdown with the Bombers sitting tenth on the ladder at 9–10, having dropped their last game 102–58 to the Giants at the Sydney Showgrounds despite Will Hayward snagging three goals and Errol Gulden piling on 32 touches. They’re 4–5 at home and 5–5 on the road, and while they’ve gone 3–2 over their past five, that one‑game skid is something they’ll want to shake off. Sydney’s clearance work has been solid (ranked fifth in the AFL), but they’ve really struggled to win the ball in general play—sitting 15th for disposals—so they’ll need to find more of it against the Bombers if they’re looking to tip the odds in their favour.
The Bombers are in a rut right now, sitting 15th with a 6–12 record and riding an eight‑game losing streak after getting thumped by 93 points by the Dogs at Docklands—though Zach Merrett still piled on 30 touches. They’ve been more competitive at home (4–5) than away (2–7), but have gone 0–5 over their last five and rank near the bottom for clearances (16th), goals kicked (16th) and inside‑50s (15th), despite being second in the league for disposals. Essendon will need to tighten up around the ball and find a spark if they’re going to snap this slide against the Swans.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Essendon are 1-10 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Swans hold a 6-4 record against the Bombers.
Best Bet
Injuries have crippled the Bombers and I don't see them getting near the Swans on their home turf.
Collingwood (1st) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
The Magpies are sitting pretty on top of the ladder with a 15–4 record and a fresh one‑game winning streak after putting Richmond to the sword by 36 points at the ‘G in Round 20 — booting 13 goals with Josh Daicos racking up 30 touches and Nick Daicos piling on 42 of them (plus kicking three himself). They’ve been rock‑solid both home (8–2) and away (7–2), and while they’ve slipped up twice in their last five (3–2), their tackling is second to none (1st in the AFL), even if they’ve been a bit loose at the clearances (14th). Expect Collingwood’s fierce pressure game and elite contest work to put the Lions under the pump.
The Lions will be itching to bounce back after a 130–64 drubbing by the Suns at Carrara, which snapped their four‑game hot streak in an otherwise strong 4–1 run to sit third on the ladder at 13–5. They’re a juggernaut around the contest—ranked third in clearances and disposals and second for inside‑50 entries—but their tackling has let them down (16th in the AFL), so expect Collingwood to try and exploit that. Lachie Neale still piled on 36 touches and Cameron Rayner snagged three goals despite the loss, and with a solid 7–1–2 record away from home (6–3 at the Gabba), Brisbane will look to lean on their midfield grunt and scoreboard punch to get one back on the Magpies.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Collingwood holds a 8-2 record. Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 4-1 against the Lions in the last 5.
Best Bet
Brisbane were terrible last week in the Q-Clash and the trip to the MCG against the Pies is a tough one. I just don't see Collingwood getting beaten at home with top spot on the line.
St Kilda (14th) vs North Melbourne (17th)
The Saints pulled off an epic comeback last time out, overturning the biggest fourth‑quarter deficit in AFL history to down Melbourne by six points at Docklands, kicking 15 goals in the process. They’re sitting 14th on the ladder at 6–13 (4–7 at home, 2–6 away) and finally snapped a four‑game skid, but their return over the past five is still only 1–4. Jack Sinclair was everywhere with 32 touches, while Jack Higgins and Nasiah Wanganeen‑Milera each slotted four goals (Nasiah also had 34 disposals). Despite that heroics, St Kilda’s inside‑50 work remains a worry (14th in the AFL), so they’ll need to keep that momentum going and tighten up their entries if they’re going to take on the Kangaroos and pull off another shock.
The Kangaroos have had a brutal run this season, sitting 17th with a 4–14 record and on a five‑game losing skid after getting belted by the Cats by 101 points at Docklands. They’ve been just 2–1–7 at home and 2–7 away, and they haven’t picked up a win in their last five. North’s clearances have been surprisingly strong (third in the AFL), but their inside‑50 work is woeful (17th), so even despite Luke Parker’s 31 touches, Cameron Zurhaar’s three goals and Colby McKercher’s 32 disposals last week, they’ll need a massive lift in the midfield and forward setup if they’re going to turn things around against St Kilda.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Saints hold a 5-0 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
A huge comeback for the Saints last week and Nasiah Wanganeen‑Milera is a star. They're now 5-0 ATS and I think they continue the momentum against the checked-out Roos.
Geelong Cats (4th) vs Port Adelaide (11th)
Geelong have been on fire lately, cruising to a massive 101‑point win over North Melbourne in Round 20 at Docklands — booting 22 goals, with Jeremy Cameron snagging 11, Bailey Smith piling on 43 disposals and Shannon Neale kicking four. Sitting fourth on the ladder with a 13–6 record (7–2 at home and 6–4 on the road), they’ve won two in a row and are 3–2 over their past five. The Cats are a scoring juggernaut (ranked second in the AFL for goals kicked), they’re elite at getting it inside 50 (fourth) and they bring brutal pressure through the contest (second in tackling), so they’ll be licking their chops as they head to take on Port Adelaide.
The Power will be keen to bounce back after getting thumped 133–35 by the Crows at Adelaide Oval, but it’s been a tough season overall—they sit 11th with an 8–11 record and have dropped their last two, going 2–3 over the past five. Port have been pretty solid at home (6–4) but dreadful away (2–7), and while Zak Butters still piled on 34 touches last time out, their ball use has been a real issue (14th for disposals) and they’re struggling to find the big sticks (15th for goals kicked). The one positive? They’ve been fierce around the contest, ranking fifth in clearances—so if they can win the midfield battle, they might just make things interesting against a red‑hot Cats side.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. Port Adelaide are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Cats hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
Port have a 6-1 Unders record in interstate clashes and hopefully they can stop Cameron kicking another bag.
Fremantle (7th) vs Carlton (12th)
The Dockers are buzzing off a big 49‑point win over the Eagles at Perth Stadium, booting 18 goals and getting big performances from Andrew Brayshaw (32 touches), Michael Frederick (4 majors) and Hayden Young, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss (3 each). They’re sitting seventh with a 13–6 record, have picked up their third straight victory, and are 4–1 over their past five. Fremantle’s been strong both home (7–2) and away (6–4), though they’ve had a rough go finding the ball (16th in disposals). If they can lift around the contest and keep feeding that hot forward line, they’ll fancy their chances of handing the Blues another loss.
The Blues are in a bit of a slump, sitting 12th with a 7–12 record and fresh off an 85–61 loss to the Hawks at the ‘G. They’ve only managed one win in their past five and have been just 4–6 at home and 3–6 on the road. Carlton’s forward line hasn’t been firing either—they’re 14th in the AFL for goals kicked—so they’ll need to find some scoring punch if they want to take on these in‑form Dockers. Expect Fremantle to try and exploit those goal‑kicking woes when they roll into town.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Carlton are 4-0 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at Perth Stadium.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Blues have won 7 games against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Carlton have a decent record against Freo but I think they've checked out for 2025. So I think the Dockers will get the job done in a low scoring affair as the Under is a perfect 5-0 when these two sides meet.
