2025 AFL Round 18 Betting Predictions
Round 18 starts on Thursday night footy with the Blues looking to salvage some pride as they tackle the high-flying 2nd placed Lions. Here is a betting preview of every AFL Round 18 matchup.
Carlton (12th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
The Blues head into their clash with the Lions sitting 12th on the ladder and coming off a tough 56-point loss to the Magpies at the MCG. They've been inconsistent all season, holding a 6-10 record and currently on a three-game losing streak. At home, they've won just three of eight games, and the same goes for their away record. Despite the rough patch, there are a few bright spots—Carlton is ranked top five in the AFL for clearances, inside 50s, and tackles, showing they can compete around the contest. However, their inability to convert that pressure into scoreboard impact remains an issue, with the Blues ranking 14th for goals kicked. With two wins in their last five games, they’ll need to find a spark quickly to stay in the hunt.
The Lions come into this matchup against the Blues sitting comfortably in 2nd spot on the ladder with an impressive 11-4 record. They're on a two-game winning streak and are fresh off a solid 28-point win over Port Adelaide at the Gabba, where they booted 18 goals and saw Bailey snag five majors. They've been strong both home and away, with a 5-3 record at the Gabba and an even better 6-1-1 on the road. Statistically, the Lions are flying—they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances, 3rd for inside 50s, and 4th for disposals. Their only real weakness is in the tackling department, where they sit 17th in the league. With three wins from their last five and a strong all-round game, they’ll head into this one as clear favourites.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Brisbane are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Lions have won 8 games against the Blues.
Best Bet
The Under has gone 4-0 in the Lions last 4 away games and the Blues are struggling to hit the scoreboard.
Same Game Multi
Hugh McCluggage is looking to make it 5 straight games with a goal and I think he continues to streak against the Blues. I don't see the Lions losing this one. Carlton are 1-18 against a team that won the GF the previous year and they are well down on confidence at the moment. Cerra has been solid in the midfield without Walsh out there, getting 25+ touches in 3 of his last 4.
Lions Win / Hugh McCluggage Anytime Goalscorer / Adam Cerra 25+ disposals = $5.25
Gold Coast Suns (7th) vs Collingwood (1st)
The Suns are building some solid momentum heading into their clash with the Magpies, sitting 7th on the ladder with a 10-5 record and coming off back-to-back wins. They were dominant in Round 17, smashing Essendon by 41 points at Docklands with 18 goals, including four from Ben King. They've been strong at home with a 5-1 record and are holding their own away at 5-4. Stat-wise, the Suns are one of the top teams in the comp—ranked 1st for inside 50s, 2nd for clearances, 4th for goals kicked, and 5th for tackles. Their ball use isn’t quite as sharp, sitting 14th for disposals, but overall, they’re playing with confidence and have the weapons to match it with anyone.
The Magpies are flying at the moment, sitting on top of the ladder with a 14-2 record and riding an eight-game winning streak. They were ruthless in Round 17, smashing Carlton by 56 points at the MCG with 17 goals—Elliot and McStay both slotting four each, while Nick Daicos racked up 36 disposals. They’ve been rock solid both home and away, going 8-1 at the ‘G and 6-1 on the road. The Pies are ranked 5th in the AFL for goals kicked and 2nd for tackles, showing they’ve got the perfect balance of scoring power and defensive pressure. With five wins from their last five and in red-hot form, they’ll take some stopping against the Suns.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Collingwood are 6-3 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Magpies are 8-2 against the Suns.
Best Bet
The Over is 5-1 when the Suns host the Pies and there should be friendly scoring conditions on the GC.
Western Bulldogs (6th) vs Adelaide Crows (3rd)
The Bulldogs are in red-hot form heading into their clash with the Crows, sitting 6th on the ladder with a 10-6 record and riding a four-game winning streak. They were dominant in Round 17, smashing North Melbourne by 49 points at Docklands with 20 goals, including five from Naughton. Statistically, they’re one of the most dangerous teams in the comp—ranked 1st for goals kicked, 2nd for both disposals and inside 50s, and 4th for clearances. Their only real weakness is in the tackling department, where they sit 15th in the league. With a 5-3 record both at home and away and four wins from their last five, the Dogs are shaping up as serious contenders.
The Crows are sitting pretty in 3rd spot on the ladder with an 11-5 record and have now won two on the trot. They were solid last week, knocking off Melbourne by 13 points at Adelaide Oval and booting 13 goals, with Izak Rankine leading the way with five majors. They've been tough to beat at home with a 7-1 record and have held their own away from home at 4-4. Adelaide’s strengths are clear—they’re ranked 3rd in the league for goals kicked and sit 4th for both inside 50s and tackles, showing they bring pressure and know how to convert. With four wins from their last five, the Crows are hitting form at the right time and will be confident heading into this clash with the Bulldogs.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Adelaide are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 3-2 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
Both sides are strong up forward and I think that will translate to a high scoring affair under the roof. The Over is also 4-0 in the Dogs last 4 games.
GWS Giants (8th) vs Geelong Cats (4th)
The Giants are starting to build some serious momentum, sitting 8th on the ladder with a 10-6 record and coming off three straight wins. In Round 17, they thumped the Eagles by 59 points over in Perth, kicking 16 goals, with Greene slotting three and Callaghan racking up 37 disposals. They've been solid away from home with a 6-3 record and have held their own at home at 4-3. The Giants are one of the top sides for disposals, ranked 3rd in the AFL, showing their ability to control the footy. Their main weakness lies in the clearance game, where they sit 15th, but with four wins from their last five, they’re definitely trending in the right direction ahead of a big clash with the Cats.
The Cats are sitting in 4th spot on the ladder with an impressive 11-5 record and head into this clash with the Giants on the back of a huge 72-point win over Richmond at Kardinia Park. They were on fire in that one, slotting 18 goals, with Jeremy Cameron kicking four and Max Holmes collecting 36 touches. Geelong have been strong at home (6-2) and just as solid on the road (5-3), and they’ve won four of their last five games. Stat-wise, the Cats are doing damage at both ends—ranked 2nd for goals kicked and 1st in the comp for tackling, showing they’re bringing both pressure and polish. With momentum building, they’ll be tough to stop this week.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Geelong are 2-1 (1 draw) at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 3-2 against the Cats in the last 5.
Best Bet
The Giants usually play well against teams higher on the ladder at home, winning 5 of their last 6. I think the Cats will be coming off a soft prep after smashing the Tigers.
Greater Western Sydney Giants +4.5 = $1.90
Richmond (17th) vs Essendon (13th)
The Tigers are really struggling this season, sitting 17th on the ladder with a 3-13 record and coming into this clash against the Bombers on a seven-game losing streak. They were completely outclassed last round, going down to the Cats by 72 points at Kardinia Park. Richmond haven’t managed a single win on the road this year (0-8) and things haven’t been much better at home either (3-5). Statistically, it’s been a tough year across the board—they rank near the bottom in just about every key area, including clearances, disposals, goals, inside 50s, and tackles. With five straight losses and not much going right, the Tigers will need a massive turnaround to be any chance this week.
The Bombers are having a tough run lately, sitting 13th on the ladder with a 6-9 record and currently on a five-game losing streak. They were beaten by 41 points last week by the Suns at Docklands, despite Zach Merrett piling on 40 disposals. While they’re strong when it comes to disposals—they’re actually ranked number one in the AFL for it—the Bombers have struggled to convert that into scoreboard impact, ranking near the bottom for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50s. Their home form is decent at 4-3, but they’ve only won twice on the road. They’ll be hoping to snap their losing streak and get back on track against the struggling Tigers.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 2-8 in their last 10 games at MCG. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Essendon hold a 3-7 record.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Tigers hold a 7-3 record against the Bombers.
Best Bet
The Under has an excellent 8-1 record when these two sides meet.
Fremantle (9th) vs Hawthorn (5th)
The Dockers sit 9th on the ladder with a solid 10-6 record but come into this game off the back of a narrow one-point loss to the Swans at the SCG. They’ve been pretty consistent lately, winning four of their last five matches, but that loss snapped their streak. Fremantle have been strong both home (5-2) and away (5-4), but their biggest weakness this season has been their disposal game, where they rank 16th in the AFL. Caleb O’Driscoll stood out last game with 26 touches, showing they’ve got players stepping up. The Dockers will be looking to bounce back quickly and keep pushing for a finals spot against the Hawks.
The Hawks are flying right now, sitting 5th on the ladder with an 11-5 record and riding a four-game winning streak. They put on a strong performance in Round 17, beating St Kilda by 20 points at Docklands and kicking 14 goals, with Gunston hitting the scoreboard three times. The Hawks have been tough to beat at home, going 6-1, and decent on the road with a 5-4 record. They’re ranked 5th in the AFL for disposals, showing they control the ball well, but they do struggle a bit with clearances, sitting 14th in that area. With four wins in their last five games, they’re in good form and ready to take on the Dockers.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at Perth Stadium.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Dockers hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
Expecting points to flow in Perth as the Over is 5-1 in this matchup.
Melbourne (14th) vs North Melbourne (16th)
The Demons are having a rough season, sitting 14th on the ladder with just five wins and 11 losses. They’re currently on a five-game losing streak and coming off a close 13-point loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval. Their form hasn’t been great lately either, losing all of their last five games. They’ve struggled both at home (3-6) and on the road (2-5), and one of their biggest issues this year has been scoring, ranking 15th in the AFL for goals kicked. Despite the struggles, players like Viney have been trying to keep things going, with 30 disposals in their last game. The Demons will need to turn things around quickly if they want to stay competitive against the Kangaroos.
The Kangaroos are struggling this season, sitting 16th on the ladder with just four wins and 11 losses. They’re coming off a heavy 49-point loss to the Bulldogs at Docklands and are currently on a two-game losing streak. Their recent form is patchy too, with two wins from their last five games. At home, they’ve only managed two wins and one draw from nine games, and their away record is even tougher, with just two wins from seven matches. The Kangaroos are strong around the stoppages, ranked 3rd in the AFL for clearances, but they really struggle to get the ball inside 50, sitting 17th in the league. Players like Larkey and McKercher have shown some spark—Larkey bagged five goals and McKercher had 32 disposals in their last game—but the team will need a lot more to turn their season around against the Demons.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne hold a 3-7 record. North Melbourne are 12-15 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5.
Best Bet
I think North will give the Dees another challenge. They won the first meeting of the season and Melbourne are on a 5 game losing streak right now.
St Kilda (15th) vs Sydney Swans (10th)
The Saints are having a tough season, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 5-11 record and currently on a four-game losing streak. They were beaten by 20 points last time out against the Hawks at Docklands, despite some strong individual efforts from Wanganeen-Milera, who racked up 43 disposals, and Max Hall, who kicked three goals. Their form over the last five games hasn’t been great, with just one win. At home, they’re 3-6 and have struggled even more on the road with a 2-5 record. One of their main issues this year has been getting the ball inside 50, where they rank 14th in the AFL. The Saints will need to improve quickly if they want to bounce back against the Swans.
The Swans are sitting 10th on the ladder with a 7-9 record and are coming off a close 11-point win over Fremantle at the SCG, where they kicked 14 goals. McLean was a standout with three goals, while Callum Mills racked up 26 disposals. Their recent form is decent, winning three of their last five games, and they’re pretty balanced at home (3-5) and away (4-4). However, they’ve struggled with disposals this season, ranking 15th in the AFL. The Swans will be hoping to keep the momentum going and build on their current winning streak as they take on the Saints.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Swans have won 6 games against the Saints.
Best Bet
The Swans are looking brighter after getting Gulden and Mills back in the side and the Saints have lost 7 of their last 8. Swans to cover.
Port Adelaide (11th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Power sit 11th on the ladder with a 7-9 record and are coming off a tough loss to the Lions at the Gabba, going down 120 to 92. They’ve been a bit up and down lately, winning three of their last five games, but their form at home (5-4) is better than on the road (2-5). Players like Butters and Rozee have been stepping up, with 31 and 32 disposals respectively in the last game. One area the Power really need to work on is their tackling, where they rank 16th in the AFL. They’ll be looking to bounce back quickly against the Eagles.
The Eagles are having a brutal season, sitting last on the ladder with just one win and 15 losses. They’re coming off a heavy 59-point loss to the Giants at Perth Stadium and are currently on a six-game losing streak. Their form over the last five games hasn’t improved, losing every match, and they haven’t managed a win on the road all year (0-8), while their home record is also poor at 1-7. They’re struggling across the board, ranking near the bottom in clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackling. The Eagles will be desperate for a turnaround but will face a tough test against the Power.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 5-4 (1 draws) in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Power hold a 4-1 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
Not a lot of value in this head to head as the Power should do it easily. So I like the Under, which is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 games.
