2025 AFL Round 17 Betting Predictions
The AFL finals are getting closer and Round 17 is another big one for the top 8. It starts at Marvel with the Dogs looking to get a spot in the top 4 with a matchup against the Roos on Thursday night. Here is a betting preview of every game this weekend around the AFL.
North Melbourne (16th) vs Western Bulldogs (7th)
The Kangaroos take on the Bulldogs this week, looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Hawks at York Park where they went down 150 to 65. Currently sitting 16th on the ladder with a 4-10 record, the Roos have shown some signs of life with two wins from their last five, but consistency remains a challenge. They’ve managed just two wins from eight home games (2-1-5), and while their away form isn't much better (2-5), there are still positives to take. One of their key strengths is around the stoppages — they’re ranked 4th in the AFL for clearances, which gives them a solid midfield platform. However, they’re struggling to convert that into scoring opportunities, sitting dead last for inside 50s. McKercher was a standout in their last outing with 34 disposals, and he'll need to be on again if the Kangaroos want to put up a fight.
The Bulldogs head into their clash with the Kangaroos in solid form, sitting 7th on the ladder with a 9-6 record and riding a three-game winning streak. They’re coming off a strong win over the Swans in Round 16, kicking 16 goals to notch a 9-point victory at the SCG. Up forward, Freijah was on fire with four goals, while Darcy and Naughton chipped in with three each. Statistically, the Bulldogs are one of the league’s best attacking teams — they lead the AFL in goals kicked and sit 2nd for both disposals and inside 50s. They’re also ranked 3rd for clearances, showing just how dominant their midfield can be. One area they’ll want to tidy up is their tackling, currently ranked last in the comp. They’ve been strong at home (5-3) and solid on the road (4-3), so they’ll be confident heading into this one.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 9 games against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Doggies are strong up forward and should have no issues kicking a big score against the Roos. So I like the chances of the Over getting up.
Same Game Multi
Joel Freijah was outstanding last week with 4 goals and offers nice value for this multi to kick a snag. He has 6 goals in his last 3 games as well. Bailey Dale is hard to stop across halfback and has 25+ disposals in 3 of his last 4 games.
Over 180.5 pts / Joel Freijah Anytime Goalscorer / Bailey Dale 25+ Disposals = $4.30
Carlton (11th) vs Collingwood (1st)
The Blues take on the Magpies this week, needing a response after a tough 50-point loss to the Power at Adelaide Oval. Sitting 11th on the ladder with a 6-9 record, Carlton have dropped their last two and only managed two wins from their past five. Their season has been a mixed bag — they’re 3-4 at home and 3-5 on the road — but they do have a few standout strengths. The Blues are ranked 1st in the AFL for tackling, showing their pressure around the contest is elite, and they also sit 5th for both clearances and inside 50s, giving them plenty of opportunities. But with nine losses already, they’ll need to find consistency fast if they want to stay in the finals hunt.
The Magpies are flying high at the top of the ladder with a 13-2 record and a dominant seven-game winning streak heading into their clash with the Blues. They were too strong for the Eagles last week at Docklands, cruising to a 29-point win after slotting 13 goals. Nick Daicos was everywhere once again, racking up 34 touches. Collingwood have been hard to beat wherever they play, going 8-1 at home and 5-1 away, and they’re one of the best all-round sides in the comp. They rank 5th in the AFL for goals kicked and 2nd for tackling, showing their balance between attack and pressure. With five wins on the trot, the Pies are in red-hot form and will take plenty of confidence into this one.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Collingwood hold a 9-1 record.
Head to Head Record
Since 2010, the Magpies are 22-6 against the Blues.
Best Bet
The Under is a great bet with the struggling Blues involved, it's 9-0 in their last 9 night matches at the MCG.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs GWS Giants (9th)
The Eagles are stuck at the bottom of the ladder with a 1-14 record and come into their clash with the Giants on a five-game losing streak. Last week they went down to the Magpies at Docklands by 29 points, with Liam Baker putting in a solid individual effort, collecting 35 disposals. Unfortunately, that was one of the few positives in what’s been a rough season. The Eagles are winless on the road (0-8) and haven’t fared much better at home (1-6). Statistically, they’re struggling across the board — ranked last in clearances and disposals, second-last in goals kicked, and sitting near the bottom for inside 50s and tackles. They’ll need a massive lift if they’re any chance of matching it with the Giants this week.
The Giants head into their clash with the Eagles sitting 9th on the ladder and building some momentum after a gritty 7-point win over the Suns at Sydney Showgrounds, where they kicked 16 goals. They've won four of their last five and are on a two-game winning streak, pushing for a spot in the top eight. With a 9-6 record, they’ve been solid both at home (4-3) and on the road (5-3). One of their key strengths is ball control — they rank 4th in the AFL for disposals, though they’ll be looking to improve around stoppages, where they sit 16th for clearances. They’ll see this game against the struggling Eagles as a big chance to keep the wins coming.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. GWS are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast showed something last week against the Pies and I think they'll keep the margin under 4 goals. The underdog is 9-0 ATS in the Giants last 9 as well.
West Coast Eagles +23.5 = $1.85
Essendon (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (8th)
The Bombers are looking to snap a four-game losing streak when they take on the Suns this week. They had the bye last round, which may have come at a good time after a 41-point loss to the Dockers at Perth Stadium. Sitting 13th on the ladder with a 6-8 record, Essendon have struggled for consistency — especially on the road, where they’re 2-6 compared to a more respectable 4-2 at home. While they lead the AFL in disposals, they haven’t been able to turn that into scoreboard pressure, ranking 16th for goals kicked and 17th for inside 50s. Clearances are another area of concern, sitting 15th overall. They'll need to clean up those key areas if they want to bounce back against the Suns.
The Suns head into their clash with the Bombers sitting 8th on the ladder with a solid 9-5 record and coming off a confidence-boosting 19-point win over Melbourne at Carrara, where they slammed home 15 goals. Ben King was a key target up forward with three goals, while Rowell dominated around the stoppages with 12 clearances. Gold Coast have been especially strong at home (5-1) and are holding their own on the road (4-4). They’re ranked number one in the AFL for inside 50s, second for clearances, fourth for goals kicked, and fifth for tackles — showing they can hurt teams both at the contest and on the scoreboard. Disposals are one of their few weak spots (ranked 14th), but overall, the Suns are shaping up as a genuine finals threat.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Gold Coast are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bombers hold a 3-2 record against the Suns.
Best Bet
The Under is 4-0 when the Bombers play at Marvel and the Suns aren't the best travelling team in the league.
Geelong Cats (4th) vs Richmond (17th)
The Cats come into their clash with the Tigers sitting comfortably in 4th spot on the ladder with a 10-5 record, despite a disappointing 41-point loss to the Lions at Kardinia Park before last week’s bye. They’ve been in decent form overall, winning four of their last five, and have shown they can get it done both at home (5-2) and on the road (5-3). Geelong are ranked 3rd in the AFL for goals kicked and 2nd for tackling, so they bring a strong mix of forward firepower and pressure. Disposals have been a bit of a weakness — they sit 15th in that area — but their ability to convert chances and apply heat around the contest makes them a dangerous side heading into this one.
The Tigers are having a tough season, sitting 17th on the ladder with a 3-12 record and coming off a heavy 68-point loss to the Crows at the MCG. That makes it six losses in a row, and they’ve yet to win on the road this year (0-7). Even at home, things haven’t been much better with a 3-5 record. Prestia tried to lift the side with 29 disposals last week, but they’ll be without Lynch for the next few rounds after he copped a five-game suspension. Stat-wise, it’s been a struggle across the board — the Tigers rank 17th or 18th in nearly every key area, including clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. It’s going to take a massive effort if they’re going to compete with a top-four Cats outfit this week.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. Richmond are 0-4 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Cats hold a 4-1 record against the Tigers.
Best Bet
Should be an easy bounce back for the Cats but the Over is 5-1 when these two sides meet and I don't see the Tigers keeping the Cats under 100 pts.
Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs Port Adelaide (10th)
The Lions come into this clash with the Power sitting 2nd on the ladder with a strong 10-4 record. They’re coming off a big 41-point win over the Cats at Kardinia Park, where they kicked 14 goals and really showed their attacking power. Brisbane have been tough to beat away from home too, going 6-1-1 on the road this season, and their home form is solid as well at 4-3. The Lions dominate in the midfield, ranked 1st for clearances and 3rd for disposals, plus they’re second in the league for inside 50s, which explains their ability to generate scoring chances. Their tackling has been a weak spot, sitting 17th, but with a recent win under their belt, they’ll be confident going into this one.
The Power are sitting 10th on the ladder with a 7-8 record and coming off a strong 50-point win over Carlton at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 16 goals. They've won three of their last five games and will be confident after that big performance. At home, they’ve been solid with a 5-4 record, but their away form isn’t great, winning just two of six. The Power have some issues to sort out, especially when it comes to scoring and tackling, ranking 14th and 15th in those areas. Butters and Rozee both had big games last time with 30 disposals each, while Georgiades kicked five goals, so if they can keep that form up, they’ll be tough to beat.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Gabba, Brisbane hold a 6-4 record. Port Adelaide are 5-7 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Lions hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
The Under is 7-0 when the Lions are playing at home so I like the trend against the Power.
St Kilda (15th) vs Hawthorn (5th)
The Saints are sitting 15th on the ladder with a 5-10 record and heading into their game against the Hawks on a three-game losing streak. They’ve struggled to find form lately, winning just once in their last five games, and they fell short again last week at Perth Stadium, losing to the Dockers 81-69. Their away form hasn’t been great either, with only two wins from seven matches, while at home they’re 3-5. One area they need to improve is getting the ball inside 50 — they rank 14th in the AFL for that — which has made scoring tough for them this season.
The Hawks come into this game against the Saints sitting 5th on the ladder with a 10-5 record and riding a three-game winning streak. They’re coming off a huge 85-point win over North Melbourne at York Park, where they smashed 23 goals — with Gunston kicking an impressive seven of them. The Hawks have been strong at home this season (6-1) but are a bit more average on the road (4-4). They’re one of the best teams when it comes to disposals, ranked 5th in the AFL, but clearances have been a bit of a weakness, sitting 14th overall. Still, they’ll be confident going into this one after their recent form.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Hawthorn are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Saints hold a 3-2 record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Over is 5-1 when the Hawks play at Marvel and both sides should enjoy playing under the roof.
Sydney Swans (12th) vs Fremantle (6th)
The Swans head into their clash with the Dockers sitting 12th on the ladder with a 6-9 record. They’re coming off a close 9-point loss to the Bulldogs at the SCG, where Heeney stood out with five goals and Gulden made a solid return from injury, gathering 30 disposals in just his second game back. Sydney’s form has been a bit up and down lately, winning two of their last five, and their home record isn’t great at 2-5. They’ll be looking to get back on track and secure a much-needed win against Fremantle this week.
The Dockers are flying high right now, sitting 6th on the ladder with a 10-5 record and riding a six-game winning streak. They just came off a solid 12-point win over the Saints at Perth Stadium, with Clark standing out with 32 disposals and Treacy kicking three goals. Fremantle have been strong both at home (5-2) and on the road (5-3), but their only real weak spot is disposals, where they rank 16th in the AFL. With five straight wins in their last five games, the Dockers will be confident heading into their clash with the Swans.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 5-5 in their last 10 games at SCG. Fremantle are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
The Under is 4-0 in the Dockers last 4 away and there should be wet weather conditions too.
Adelaide Crows (3rd) vs Melbourne (14th)
The Crows are sitting pretty in 3rd place on the ladder with a 10-5 record and coming off a big 68-point win over the Tigers at the MCG. They’ve been impressive at home this season with a 6-1 record and solid on the road too, going 4-4. Adelaide are one of the best teams when it comes to scoring, ranked 2nd in the AFL for goals kicked, and they also sit 4th for both inside 50s and tackling, showing they can apply pressure and create chances. Thilthorpe has been a key player up forward, bagging 5 goals in the last game and 33 for the season so far. With four wins in their last five, the Crows look ready to keep pushing their finals chances.
The Demons are sitting 14th on the ladder with a 5-10 record and coming off a tough loss to the Suns at Carrara, going down 104 to 85. They’re on a four-game losing streak and have only won once in their last five games. Their form at home (3-6) and away (2-4) hasn’t been great this season. Scoring has been a real problem for Melbourne, ranked 15th in the AFL for goals kicked. Despite that, Melksham has been trying to keep them in games, kicking 5 goals (along with 6 behinds) last match, while Petracca had a solid effort with 32 disposals. They’ll need to lift their attack if they want to challenge the Crows this week.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Melbourne are 6-3 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 4-1 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Dees are 8-1 against the Over in away games and the Crows have one of their best forward lines in the AFL. This should be high scoring.
