2025 AFL Round 16 Betting Predictions
Round 16 starts in Adelaide with the Power and Blues looking to keep their top 8 hopes alive after poor performances last week. Here is a betting preview of every game this weekend.
Port Adelaide (12th) vs Carlton (10th)
The Power will take on the Blues this week, sitting 12th on the ladder with a 6-8 record. They’re coming off a 19-point loss to the Swans at home, where their overall home record is split evenly at 4 wins and 4 losses. Zak Butters was a standout last week with 28 disposals, but overall, the team is lacking in a lot of areas. Statistically, the Power have struggled across several key areas this season — they rank near the bottom of the league for clearances (15th), disposals (17th), goals kicked (16th), inside 50s (14th), and tackles (17th). With eight losses already, they’ll need to find some form quickly if they want to stay in the finals hunt.
The Blues head into their clash with the Power sitting 10th on the ladder with a 6-8 record, matching their opponent's season tally. They’re coming off a disappointing 11-point loss to the Kangaroos at the MCG. Over the last five matches, they've managed two wins and three losses. Away from home, they’ve been a mixed bag with a 3-4 record, and the same goes for their home games. McGovern was a bright spot last week, booting four goals, but the team still has some areas to improve. While they're ranked 4th in the league for tackling – a clear strength – they’ve struggled with disposals (15th) and goals kicked (14th). They'll need to sharpen up offensively if they want to bounce back this week.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Carlton are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Blues have won 3 games against the Power.
Best Bet
Both sides were awful last week, especially scoring wise. So I think this Thursday night will be low scoring and the Under has an impressive 18-2 record when the Blues are playing.
Same Game Multi
Fantasia has kicked 1 or more goals in 6 of his last 7 games and should be motivated to play well against his former side. Since Walsh has been out, Hewett has 35 and 31 disposals. He has 31+ touches in 4 of his last 5 games against bottom 8 teams as well.
Under 163.5 pts / Orazio Fantasia Anytime Goalscorer / George Hewett 30+ Disposals = $5.75
Sydney Swans (11th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th)
The Swans are building a bit of momentum heading into their clash with the Bulldogs, coming off back-to-back wins and sitting 11th on the ladder with a 6-8 record. Last round, they knocked off Port Adelaide by 19 points at Adelaide Oval, kicking 9 goals in the process. Isaac Heeney was busy with 28 disposals, Gulden made a great return from injury and the underrated Hayward chipped in with 3 goals. Over their last five games, they’ve gone 3-2 and look to be hitting some form. They’ve been slightly better on the road (4-4) than at home (2-4), but they’ll need to tighten up at the SCG if they want to push into the top eight.
The Bulldogs head into this week’s matchup against the Swans sitting comfortably in 8th spot on the ladder with an 8-6 record. They’re on a two-game winning streak and have won three of their last five. Last round was a thriller—they technically lost to the Tigers by 0 points in a draw at Docklands. Bontempelli was huge with 36 disposals and will celebrate his 250th game this week, while Sam Darcy impressed with 5 goals. The Dogs have been solid both at home (5-3) and away (3-3) this season. Stat-wise, they’re a powerhouse in key areas—ranked 1st for both clearances and goals kicked, and 2nd for disposals and inside 50s. Their one weakness is tackling, where they rank 15th, but overall, they’ve got the numbers to be real contenders.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 6-4 in their last 10 games at SCG. The Bulldogs are 4-6 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Swans hold a 6-4 record against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
The Bont brings up 250 games but the Swans have Gulden back in the side. So I think this will be a close contest. As such, I like the Under trend when the Doggies face the Swans in Sydney, the Under is 7-1 in the last 8 Sydney meetings.
Gold Coast Suns (9th) vs Melbourne (14th)
The Suns head into their clash with the Demons sitting 9th on the ladder with an 8-5 record, but they’re currently on a three-game losing streak and looking to bounce back. Last round they went down to the Giants at Sydney Showgrounds, with the scoreboard not doing them any favours. Noah Anderson was a standout though, racking up a massive 42 disposals. At home, the Suns have been strong with a 4-1 record, and they’ve held their own away as well, going 4-4. Statistically, they’ve got some serious firepower—ranked 1st in the AFL for clearances and inside 50s, and 4th for goals kicked. If they can turn those numbers into a full four-quarter performance, they’ll be a real chance to snap their losing run this week.
The Demons head into their clash with the Suns sitting 14th on the ladder with a 5-9 record and looking to snap a three-game losing streak. They had the bye last round, but before that, they went down to the Power at Adelaide Oval in a tough outing. Their recent form hasn't been great, with just two wins from their last five games. At home, they've struggled with a 3-6 record, and away they've gone 2-3. With nine losses already this season, the Dees will be desperate to turn things around, but they'll need to bring their best against a Suns side that’s strong around the ball.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. In their last 5 games at Carrara, Melbourne holds a 4-1 record.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Demons are 9-1 against the Suns.
Best Bet
The Dees should be fresh from the bye and have a 5-1 ATS record when they're an underdog against the Suns.
Hawthorn (5th) vs North Melbourne (16th)
The Hawks come into their matchup against the Kangaroos in good shape, sitting 5th on the ladder with a 9-5 record and riding a two-game winning streak. They had the bye last round, but before that, they edged out the Crows by 3 points at York Park, kicking 6 goals in a tight contest. They've been solid at home with a 5-1 record and have held their own away as well, splitting it 4-4. Over the last five games, they’ve picked up two wins, and they'll be looking to build on that momentum. Stat-wise, the Hawks are strong with the ball, ranking 5th in the league for both disposals and tackles. Their one weak spot is clearances, where they sit 14th, but overall they’ve shown enough to suggest they should be confident heading into this one.
The Kangaroos head into their clash with the Hawks sitting 16th on the ladder with a 4-9 record, but there have been some positive signs lately. They’re coming off a solid 11-point win over Carlton at the MCG in Round 15, where they kicked 13 goals and had Powell rack up 34 disposals. That win snapped a losing run and gives them a bit of momentum, with three wins from their last five games. They've been evenly split between home and away victories, with a 2-4 away record and 2-5 at home. While they struggle with inside 50s (ranking 16th in the league), the Roos are surprisingly strong at the contest, leading the AFL in clearances. They'll be looking to bring that midfield edge into this matchup with the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 9-1 in their last 10 games at UTAS. North Melbourne are 2-5 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 16-5 against the Kangaroos since 2010.
Best Bet
The Hawks are back from the bye and love playing at UTAS in Tassie. They're 10-0 ATS and I think they'll be too good for the Roos.
Collingwood (1st) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Magpies are flying high at the top of the ladder with a 12-2 record and head into their clash with the Eagles riding a six-game winning streak. They’ve been dominant both home (7-1) and away (5-1), and their recent form is red-hot with five wins from their last five games. Last round, they comfortably took care of St Kilda at Docklands, winning by 34 points and slotting 16 goals. Offensively, they’re one of the best in the comp, ranked 4th for goals kicked, and they bring the pressure too, sitting 3rd for tackles. The Pies are in great touch and will be looking to keep the momentum rolling this week.
It’s been a tough season for the Eagles, who sit last on the ladder with a 1-13 record and are currently on a four-game losing streak. They had the bye last round, but before that, they fell to the Blues at Perth Stadium. Their only win this year came at home, where they’re 1-6, while they’ve yet to register a win on the road (0-7). The struggles are showing in the stats too — they rank last in the league for clearances and disposals, and near the bottom for goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. With form and numbers stacked against them, the Eagles will have a huge challenge on their hands facing a red-hot Magpies outfit.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 0-5 in their last 5 games at Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 3-2 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
Not a lot of value in this massive mis-match. So I like the chances of the Pies keeping the Eagles forward line under wraps and the Under is 4-0 when these two play at Marvel.
Richmond (17th) vs Adelaide Crows (4th)
The Tigers have had a rough season so far, sitting 17th on the ladder with just 3 wins and 11 losses. They’re on a five-game losing streak and have struggled to find any form, especially away from home where they haven’t won a game all year (0-7). At home, they’ve managed 3 wins but still have 4 losses. Their recent outing saw them go down to the Bulldogs at Docklands. The stats tell the story too — they rank near the bottom in almost every key area, including clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackling. It’s been a tough year for the Tigers, and they’ll be looking for a spark to turn things around.
The Crows are sitting strong in 4th place on the ladder with a 9-5 record but are coming off a close loss to the Hawks at York Park, going down 47 to 44. They’ve been solid on the road with a 3-4 record and even better at home, boasting 6 wins and just 1 loss. Over their last five games, they’ve picked up three wins and two losses. The team excels in key areas like clearances (5th), goals kicked (3rd), inside 50 entries (4th), and tackling (2nd), showing they’ve got the firepower and grit to challenge any opponent. They’ll be eager to bounce back from that narrow defeat as they take on the Tigers this week.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Richmond hold a 2-8 record. Adelaide are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Tigers hold a 4-1 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
The Crows should be tough to beat and I think they do it easily. But the Under is 6-0 when the Tigers are at the MCG and the Crows backline shouldn't have any issues stopping their scoring.
Fremantle (6th) vs St Kilda (15th)
The Dockers are flying high right now, sitting 6th on the ladder with a 9-5 record and riding a five-game winning streak. They’re coming off a big 41-point win over Essendon at Perth Stadium, where they kicked 16 goals. Serong was impressive last game with 35 disposals, and both Jackson and Treacy contributed three goals each. The Dockers have been strong both at home (4-2) and away (5-3), and they rank 5th in the league for inside 50 entries, showing they know how to get the ball forward. They’ll be confident heading into this clash with the Saints, looking to keep the momentum going.
The Saints are struggling this season, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 5-9 record and coming off a tough 34-point loss to the Magpies at Docklands. They’re on a two-game losing streak and have only managed one win in their last five games. At home, they’ve gone 3-5, while away from home they’re 2-4. Mason Wood was a bright spot last game with 3 goals, and Wanganeen-Milera racked up 35 disposals, but overall the Saints have found it hard to get going this year. They’ll need to lift their game big time if they want to challenge the Dockers this week.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. St Kilda are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Freo should get the job done at home but the Under is 4-1 in this matchup and looks like the safer bet.
