2025 AFL Round 14 Betting Predictions
Round 14 of the AFL season starts at Marvel on Thursday night footy with a crucial matchup between the Dogs and Saints. Both sides are outside the top 8 but can improve their chances of a top 8 finish with a win. Here's a betting preview of every game this weekend in Round 14.
St Kilda (12th) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)
The Saints head into this clash with the Bulldogs sitting 12th on the ladder with a 5-7 record, coming off a solid 28-point win over Melbourne in Round 12. They had the bye last week, but before that, Dan Butler was on fire with 4 goals and Callum Wilkie racked up 31 touches. The Saints have won just 2 of their last 5, but they’ve shown glimpses of form, particularly in their strengths — they rank 5th in the AFL for both disposals and tackles. That said, their main issue remains getting the ball inside 50, where they sit 14th in the comp. Their home record this year is 3-4, while they’ve gone 2-3 on the road. After a confidence-boosting win, they’ll be hoping to build some momentum against a Bulldogs side that’s always a tough opponent.
The Bulldogs come into this one sitting 9th on the ladder with a 6-6 record, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after a disappointing 22-point loss to the Hawks at Docklands. Bailey Dale was a standout in that game with 30 disposals, but the Dogs have now dropped their last two. Despite the recent form slump, they’ve got some serious strengths — ranking 2nd in the AFL for clearances, disposals, and goals kicked, plus 3rd for inside 50s. Their main issue has been tackling, where they sit last in the comp. They’ve won 4 of 7 at home and 2 of 5 away, so this match against the Saints is a real opportunity to steady the ship and push back into finals contention.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Marvel. The Bulldogs are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Saints in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Doggies struggled last week but their record against the Saints at Marvel is dominant. They've won the last 2 meetings here by 71 and 60 pts, the 71 pt win was back in Round 7 at this venue. Sam Darcy is also back from injury and that's huge for their forward line. The Dogs are 4-1 ATS against the Saints as well and I think they get back on track.
Western Bulldogs -22.5 = $1.90
Same Game Multi
Ed Richards continues to hit the scoreboard, he's kicked a goal in 7 straight games and the return of Treloar didn't stop him from kicking a goal last week. Bailey Dale racked up 30 disposals last week against the Hawks and he's only fallen below 25 touches in 1 of his last 5 games. In his last 2 against the Saints, he's picked up 32 and 39 touches as well.
Bulldogs -22.5 / Bailey Dale 25+ disposals / Ed Richards Anytime Goalscorer = $3.40
Hawthorn (6th) vs Adelaide Crows (3rd)
The Hawks are flying under the radar this season, currently sitting 6th on the ladder with an 8-5 record. They’re coming off a strong 22-point win over the Bulldogs in Round 13, where they slotted 12 goals at Docklands, with Mabior Chol booting four of them. They’ve won two of their last five and are riding a one-game winning streak heading into this clash with the Crows. At home, they’ve been solid with a 4-1 record, while they’ve gone 4-4 on the road. The one area they need to improve is clearances — they’re ranked dead last in the comp — but overall, the Hawks are building nicely and will fancy their chances here.
The Crows are in hot form right now, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a 9-4 record and riding a three-game winning streak. They’re coming off a tight 5-point win over the Lions at Adelaide Oval, where they kicked 10 goals, with Keays and Rachele both snagging three each. Adelaide’s strength lies in their attack — they’re ranked 1st in the AFL for goals kicked, and they back it up with strong inside 50 numbers (5th) and tackling pressure (4th). At home, they’ve been dominant with a 6-1 record, while they’ve gone 3-3 on the road. With four wins from their last five, the Crows are building momentum and will head into this clash with the Hawks full of confidence.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are looking for an 8th straight win at York Park. Adelaide are 2-5 in their history.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Hawks hold a 3-2 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
This is a tough game to pick in the head to head, so I like the Under. It's generally harder to score down in Tassie and the Crows have a 7-1 record against the Under too. Seven of Adelaide's last eight matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs GWS Giants (7th)
The Lions head into their clash with the Giants sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 9-3 record, despite a narrow 5-point loss to the Crows last week at Adelaide Oval. Will Ashcroft was impressive with 31 disposals in that game, and while Brisbane couldn’t get the win, they’ve still been one of the top sides this season. Their strengths are hard to ignore — they’re ranked 1st in the comp for clearances, 2nd for inside 50s, and 3rd for disposals. They’ve been solid both home (4-2) and away (5-1-1), but their tackling is a bit of a weak spot, sitting 17th in the league. With two wins from their last five, the Lions will be looking to bounce back and get back on track against a Giants side that won't be easy to beat.
The Giants head into this one sitting 7th on the ladder with a 7-6 record, looking to bounce back after a 16-point loss to the Power at Manuka Oval. Jesse Hogan and Jake Riccardi both chipped in with two goals, but it wasn’t enough to get the job done. They've won three of their last five and have been pretty even across the board this season, with a 4-3 record away and 3-3 at home. One of their biggest strengths is their ball movement — they’re ranked 4th in the AFL for disposals — but clearances have been an issue, where they sit 15th. Coming up against a strong Lions outfit, the Giants will need to bring their A-game to stay in the top eight race.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. GWS are 3-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Lions hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
The Lions have struggled to put away teams at the Gabba as they are 0-9 against the spread, so the Giants should be able to get within 3 goals.
Greater Western Sydney Giants +19.5 = $1.90
Essendon (10th) vs Geelong Cats (4th)
The Bombers head into this clash with the Cats sitting 10th on the ladder with a 6-6 record, and they’ll be desperate to snap a two-game losing streak. Last week they went down by 8 points to the Blues at the MCG, despite a strong showing from Peter Wright with 3 goals and Nic Martin racking up 32 disposals. Essendon have been elite with the ball in hand, ranking 1st in the AFL for disposals, but they’ve struggled to turn that into scoreboard pressure, sitting 15th for goals kicked and 16th for inside 50s. Their home form’s been solid at 4-1, but they’ve managed just 2 wins from 7 on the road. They’ll need to tidy up their forward entries if they’re going to trouble the Cats.
The Cats are in red-hot form right now, riding a four-game winning streak and sitting 4th on the ladder with a 9-4 record. They’re coming off a solid 24-point win over the Suns at Kardinia Park, where Tyson Stengle kicked four goals and Max Holmes dominated with 40 touches — all without Bailey Smith in the side. Geelong have been rock solid both home (5-1) and away (4-3) this season, and their strengths are clear — they rank 1st in the comp for tackles and 3rd for goals kicked. The only real concern is their disposal count, where they sit 14th, but they’ve been more than making up for it with pressure and efficiency. They head into this matchup with the Bombers full of momentum and looking every bit a top-four threat.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Geelong hold a 6-4 record.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Cats are 7-1 against the Bombers.
Best Bet
The Cats were impressive defensively last week and hopefully that continues against Essendon. The Under is 6-0 in the Bombers last 6 as well, so I like the chances of the Under here.
North Melbourne (16th) vs Fremantle (8th)
The Kangaroos head into this clash with the Dockers sitting 16th on the ladder with a 3-8 record, but they’ll take some confidence from their 10-point win over the Eagles last week at Hands Oval. George Wardlaw racked up 35 disposals and Paul Curtis chipped in with 3 goals in a solid team performance. The Roos have now won two of their last five and are starting to show signs of improvement. They’re strong around the contest, ranked 2nd in the AFL for clearances, but still have work to do going forward — inside 50s have been a major issue, sitting 17th in the league. They’ve managed just one win from five away games this season, so they'll be hoping to make the most of being back on home turf where they’re 2-5.
The Dockers are starting to hit their stride, coming into this one on a three-game winning streak and sitting 8th on the ladder with a 7-5 record. Before their bye last week, they knocked off the Suns by 11 points at Carrara, booting 11 goals with Voss and Bolton both snagging three each. They’ve been fairly balanced home and away this season, going 4-3 on the road and 3-2 at home. While they’ve struggled a bit with disposals — ranking 15th in the league — they’ve been getting results lately and building some momentum. With three wins from their last five, the Dockers will be confident heading into this clash with a Kangaroos side still finding its feet.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Fremantle are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Freo get an away game at Optus Stadium and I think they'll love it. They also have the wood over the Roos, covering in 5 of the last 6 matchups.
Port Adelaide (15th) vs Melbourne (14th)
The Power come into this game sitting 15th on the ladder with a 5-7 record, but they’ll be feeling good after a solid 16-point win over the GWS Giants at Manuka Oval last round. They kicked 9 goals with Xavier Duursma Butters piling on 32 disposals and Daniel Rioli kicking 2 goals. Despite that win, they’ve only won one of their last five games and still struggle to find the scoreboard regularly, ranking last in the AFL for goals kicked. Their home form is decent at 3-0-3, but away from home they’ve had a tougher time with just 2 wins from 6 matches. The Power will need to keep up their pressure if they want to trouble the Demons here.
The Demons are coming off a tough one-point loss to the Magpies at the MCG and currently sit 14th on the ladder with a 5-8 record. They’ve been struggling with tackling this season, ranking 15th in the AFL, which has cost them in tight contests. Their recent form is a bit shaky too, with two losses in a row and a 2-3 record from their last five games. At home, they’ve had a hard time finding consistency, winning just three out of nine games. Despite that, Fritsch and Pickett have been bright spots, both kicking three goals in the last match. The Demons will need to tighten up if they want to turn things around against the Power.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 3-2 against the Power in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
I like the low scoring trend in this matchup, the Under is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings .
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Carlton (11th)
The Eagles are having a rough season, sitting rock bottom on the ladder with just one win and twelve losses so far. They’re currently on a three-game losing streak after a 62-52 loss to the Kangaroos at Hands Oval. Their struggles show up across the board — they’re near the bottom of the AFL rankings for clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50 entries, and tackling. They haven’t managed a win on the road all year, going 0-7 away, and at home, they’ve only snagged one win from six games. It’s been a tough run for the Eagles, and they’ll be looking for some improvement here.
The Blues are coming off a solid 8-point win over Essendon at the MCG, where Sam Walsh racked up 32 disposals and Charlie Curnow kicked 2 goals. They’re sitting 11th on the ladder with a 5-7 record this season and have been pretty strong in key areas — they rank 5th in clearances, 4th for inside 50 entries, and 2nd in tackling. At home, they’ve been decent with three wins and three losses, while on the road they’ve managed two wins from six games. After snapping a losing streak with that recent win, the Blues will be looking to build some momentum against the Eagles.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue. Carlton are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Blues have won 5 games against the Eagles.
Best Bet
The Blues love this matchup as they've covered in their last 5 against West Coast and I think their midfield/forward line will be too good in the end.
