2025 AFL Round 12 Betting Predictions
Round 12 starts in Brissy with the Lions looking to lock up 2nd position on the ladder against a desperate Bombers side that just sits outside the top 8. Here is a preview of every game this weekend in the AFL.
Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs Essendon (10th)
The Lions are heading into this clash with the Bombers in strong form, sitting second on the ladder with an 8-2 record for the season. They've been particularly impressive on the road, winning five of their six away games. Last week in Round 11, they knocked off Hawthorn by 33 points at the MCG, slotting 14 goals with Zorko racking up 33 disposals and Ah Chee bagging four goals. Over their last five matches, they’ve gone 3-1-1 and are currently on a one-game winning streak. The Lions dominate at stoppages, ranked number one in the AFL for clearances, and they’re also in the top four for inside 50s. That said, tackling remains a bit of a weakness - they’re 14th in the league in that department. With their strong form and a solid home record, they’ll be tough to beat here.
The Bombers come into this one sitting 10th on the ladder with a 6-4 record and a bit of momentum after a solid 23-point win over Richmond at the MCG, where they kicked 11 goals. Zach Merrett led the way with 37 disposals, while debutant Clarke impressed with 3 goals and 16 touches. They’ve been strong at home this season with a 4-1 record, but haven’t quite found the same consistency on the road. Over their last five, they’ve gone 3-2 and are riding a one-game winning streak. The Bombers rack up plenty of the footy - ranked number one in the AFL for disposals - but they’ve struggled in a few key areas like clearances, inside 50s, and goal kicking, all of which could hurt them against a top side like the Lions.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Gabba. Essendon are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Lions hold a 4-1 record against the Bombers.
Best Bet
The Bombers have an interesting trend against teams that just won the Grand Final, the Over is 9-0 in their last 9 games. The conditions at the Gabba should be great for attacking footy as well.
Same Game Multi
The Bombers skipper has beaten 31+ disposals in 5 of his last 6 against the Lions. He comes off 37 touches last week too. Peter Wright has kicked 3+ goals in his last 2 games against Brisbane. Ah Chee kicked 4 goals last week and has 10 snags in his last 5 games. Brisbane lost their last home game against a bottom 8 side and I think the Bombers can keep it under a 44.5 pt margin.
Collingwood (1st) vs Hawthorn (6th)
The Magpies are flying high at the top of the ladder with a 9-2 record and are coming off a dominant 45-point win over North Melbourne in Round 11, where they slotted 15 goals at Docklands. Jamie Elliott was on fire with five majors, taking his season tally to 28 and putting him fourth in the Coleman race, while Nick Daicos racked up a massive 38 disposals. They’ve been strong wherever they play - 4-1 away and 5-1 at home - and are currently riding a three-game winning streak, going 4-1 in their last five. One of their big strengths is their pressure game, sitting third in the AFL for tackles. With their form and consistency, the Magpies will be tough for the Hawks to stop.
The Hawks sit sixth on the ladder with a 7-4 record but are looking to bounce back after a 33-point loss to the Lions at the MCG. They’re currently on a two-game losing streak, though they’ve gone 3-2 in their last five and have been solid at home with a 4-1 record. The Hawks have a few standout strengths - they’re ranked fifth in the AFL for disposals, goals kicked, and tackles - so they’re capable of putting pressure on and hitting the scoreboard. However, their biggest weakness is around the stoppages, ranking dead last in the comp for clearances. Up against a red-hot Magpies side, they’ll need to tidy that up to stay in the contest.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 9-1 in their last 10 games at MCG. In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Hawthorn hold a 8-2 record.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-2 against the Magpies in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Hawks have a good record against the Pies and I think this will be close finish. They're 7-0 ATS against the Pies at the MCG.
Gold Coast Suns (3rd) vs Fremantle (9th)
The Suns are in red-hot form right now, sitting third on the ladder with an 8-2 record and riding a three-game winning streak. They’ve won four of their last five and are coming off a solid 19-point win over the Saints at Docklands, where Noah Anderson had 36 touches and Ben Long chipped in with three goals. They’re undefeated at home (4-0) and have held their own on the road with a 4-2 record. Stat-wise, the Suns are one of the most dangerous teams going forward - ranked first in the AFL for inside 50s, third for goals kicked, and fifth for clearances. They’re ticking a lot of boxes and look ready to give the Dockers a serious challenge.
The Dockers are sitting ninth on the ladder with a 6-5 record and come into this clash on a bit of a roll, winning their last two games. They were super impressive last week with a big 49-point win over Port Adelaide at Perth Stadium, slotting 15 goals, including four from M. Reid. They've been solid both home and away this season, going 3-2 at home and 3-3 on the road. Over their last five, they’ve gone 3-2, so they're building a bit of form. That said, there are a couple of areas where they’ve struggled - ranked 15th for disposals and last in the AFL for tackles, so pressure and ball control could be an issue against a Suns side that’s been flying.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Fremantle are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is tied at 3-3 since 2018.
Best Bet
The Suns are back on the Gold Coast and have a 5-0 ATS against the Dockers at this venue.
GWS Giants (8th) vs Richmond (16th)
The Giants are holding onto eighth spot on the ladder with a 6-5 record and will be feeling good after a strong 28-point win over Carlton in Round 11, where they kicked 17 goals at Docklands. Jesse Hogan was a standout up forward with four majors. They’ve been decent on the road this year (4-3) and split their home games 2-2. While their recent form has been a bit patchy (2-3 from their last five), they’re coming off a win and looking to build some momentum. The Giants are strong with the ball in hand - ranked fourth in the league for disposals - but they’ve had issues in key areas like clearances (15th) and inside 50s (14th), which could hold them back if they don’t tidy things up.
The Tigers have had a rough run this season, sitting 16th on the ladder with a 3-8 record and currently on a two-game losing streak. They went down to the Bombers by 23 points at the MCG last week, managing just 58 points. They've lost four of their last five and are still chasing their first win on the road this season (0-5 away). Statistically, it's been a tough year - the Tigers rank near the bottom of the comp in a bunch of key areas, including clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles. Their only real consistency has come at home with a 3-3 record, but up against a Giants side pushing for finals, they’ll need a serious lift to be in the contest.
Stadium Record
GWS are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Richmond are 2-3 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Taranto meets his former side and he should be fired up to play well. He comes off 2 goals last week and 5 in his last 5 games. So he offers nice value to kick a snag.
Anytime Goalscorer - Tim Taranto = $2.20
Sydney Swans (13th) vs Adelaide Crows (4th)
The Swans are sitting 13th on the ladder with a 4-7 record and come into this game off a tough 53-point loss to the Demons at the MCG. They’ve dropped three of their last five and are on a one-game losing streak. It's been a pretty mixed bag both home and away - 2-3 at home and 2-4 on the road. Stat-wise, the Swans have struggled to get their hands on the footy, ranking 14th in disposals and 15th in tackles, which has hurt them in key moments. They'll need a sharper effort across the board if they want to bounce back against the Crows.
The Crows are sitting nicely in fourth spot on the ladder with a 7-4 record and come into this clash full of confidence after smashing the Eagles by 66 points at Adelaide Oval. Rachele was on fire with five goals, while Laird and Dawson both racked up 27 touches. They’ve won three of their last five and are on a one-game winning streak. At home, they’ve been rock solid with a 5-1 record, though they’ve been a bit more hit-and-miss on the road (2-3). Offensively, they’re one of the most dangerous teams in the comp - ranked second for goals kicked and fifth for inside 50s - so they’ll be backing themselves to cause plenty of damage against the Swans.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at SCG, Sydney holds a 2-3 record. Adelaide are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Swans are 6-2 against the Crows.
Best Bet
The Swans have the wood over the Crows with 6 straight wins and they're 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Melbourne (11th) vs St Kilda (14th)
The Demons are sitting 11th on the ladder with a 5-6 record but are starting to hit some form, winning their last two games and four of their past five. They’re coming off a big 53-point win over the Swans at the MCG, where Pickett was a standout with five goals and 31 disposals, supported by strong performances from Salem, Langdon, and Oliver. They’ve been a bit patchy at home with a 3-4 record but have been solid away, sitting at 2-2 on the road. The Demons are one of the best teams when it comes to getting the ball, ranked third in the AFL for disposals, so if they keep controlling the footy like that, they’ll be tough to beat against the Saints.
The Saints have had a tough season so far, sitting 14th on the ladder with a 4-7 record and currently on a three-game losing streak. They’re coming off a 19-point loss to the Suns at Docklands, with Sharman kicking three goals and Wanganeen-Milera racking up 36 disposals in the last game. Their tackling has been a real positive - they’re ranked fourth in the AFL for it - but overall, they’ve struggled both at home (3-4) and on the road (1-3). They’ll need to find some form fast if they want to turn things around against the Demons.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. St Kilda are 0-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 6-3 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
The Dees are back in form and have the top 8 in their sights. They love playing the Saints with a 5-0 ATS record and I think they get the job done up north.
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Geelong Cats (5th)
The Eagles are having a really tough season, sitting at the bottom of the ladder with just one win and ten losses. They’re coming off a heavy 128-62 loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval and still searching for their first away win after going 0-6 on the road this year. Their last five games haven’t been great either, with just one win in that stretch. Stat-wise, they’re struggling across the board - ranking last or near-last in clearances, disposals, goals kicked, and inside 50s. With those numbers, it’s been a rough year, and they’ll need a big turnaround to challenge the Cats this week.
The Cats are sitting pretty in 5th spot on the ladder with a 7-4 record and are coming off back-to-back wins. They just beat the Bulldogs by 14 points at Kardinia Park, kicking 20 goals in the process. Cameron has been in great form lately, scoring six goals in the last game and 13 across the past two. Bailey Smith and Holmes also had strong games with 33 disposals each. While the Cats struggle a bit with disposals, ranking 16th in the AFL, they’re solid when it comes to scoring and pressure - ranked third for goals kicked and first for tackling. At home, they’re impressive with a 4-1 record and are even on the road at 3-3, so they’ll be confident heading into this one.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Geelong are 5-6 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 5-0 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Cats are playing impressive footy at the moment and Cameron is on fire in the forward line. They should handle the struggling Eagles and the Cats are 6-0 ATS in interstate games.
