2025 AFL Round 11 Betting Predictions
Round 11 kicks off at the Cattery with a massive top 8 clash between the Cats and the Doggies. Here is a preview of every game this weekend around the AFL.
Geelong Cats (7th) vs Western Bulldogs (5th)
The Cats head into their clash with the Bulldogs sitting 7th on the ladder with a 6–4 record. They snapped a rough patch with a massive 76-point win over Port Adelaide in Round 10, booting 17 goals at Adelaide Oval. Jeremy Cameron was unstoppable, slotting 7 goals on his own. The Cats are now on a one-game winning streak and will be keen to build some momentum. They've been solid at home (3–1) and break-even on the road (3–3). Over the past five games, they're 3–2, showing some patchy but promising form. While they struggle when it comes to overall disposals (ranked 16th in the comp), they're deadly up forward – sitting 4th in the league for goals kicked. They also bring serious heat around the contest, ranked 2nd for tackles. If they can keep that pressure up and give their forwards enough looks, the Cats are every chance of making it two wins on the trot.
The Bulldogs come into this one sitting 5th on the ladder with a 6–4 record and plenty of momentum, having won four of their last five. They absolutely smashed Essendon by 91 points last round at Docklands, piling on 18 goals. Bailey Dale was everywhere with a monster 49 disposals, while West chipped in with four majors. The Dogs are flying in a few key areas — they lead the comp for disposals and goals kicked, sit 2nd for inside 50s, and 3rd for clearances, so they’re getting plenty of ball and using it well. That said, their tackling is a weak spot, ranked dead last in the AFL, which could hurt them against pressure-heavy sides. They've been solid at home (4–2) and are even on the road (2–2), and they’re riding a one-game winning streak. With the firepower they’ve got and the form they’re in, the Bulldogs will back themselves to keep things rolling against the Cats.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. The Bulldogs are 2-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Cats hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
I'm expecting a high scoring affair on Thursday night footy, the Over is 4-1 in the Cats last 5 at home and the Dogs can easily kick 100+ pts on their day.
Same Game Multi
The Cats are 16-2 against the Doggies at home so you have to like the trend, especially after a huge win over the Power. Bailey Smith takes on his former side for the first time and he'll be fired up to play well. He's in great form too, hitting the 30+ disposal mark in his last 3 games. Ed Richards has been impressive this season and has kicked a goal in 5 straight games.
Cats -1.5 / Bailey Smith 30+ disposals / Anytime Goalscorer - Ed Richards = $4.90
Essendon (10th) vs Richmond (16th)
The Bombers sit just outside the top eight in 10th with a 5–4 record, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after a brutal 91-point loss to the Bulldogs at Docklands last round, where they managed just 36 points. That loss snapped a decent run where they’d won three of their previous five. Essendon’s main strength this season has been their ability to find the footy — they rank 2nd in the AFL for disposals — but it hasn’t always translated on the scoreboard. They’re struggling in key attacking areas, sitting 15th for clearances, goals kicked, and inside 50s, which explains their inconsistency. At home they’ve been solid (3–1), but they’re just 2–3 away. Coming off that tough loss, the Bombers will be desperate to respond when they take on the Tigers.
The Tigers head into this clash against the Bombers sitting 16th on the ladder with a 3–7 record and plenty to work on. They’re coming off a tight 4-point loss to North Melbourne at the MCG, where Taranto led the way with 30 disposals, but it wasn’t enough to get the win. Richmond have dropped three of their last five and are stuck in a losing streak, with form issues right across the board. They rank near the bottom of the AFL in most key stats — clearances, disposals, goals kicked, inside 50s, and tackles — and are still chasing their first away win of the season (0–4). They've been a bit more competitive at home (3–3), but they'll need to lift big time if they're going to challenge the Bombers in this one.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 3-6 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at the MCG. Richmond are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 3-2 against the Bombers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Both sides have struggled at the MCG lately and the Under is 6-0 at the MCG. So I think Dreamtime at the G will be a low scoring grind.
Carlton (11th) vs GWS Giants (8th)
The Blues come into this one sitting 11th on the ladder with a 4–6 record, looking to bounce back after a 16-point loss to the Swans at the SCG. Charlie Curnow was a standout with 3 goals, but it wasn’t enough to get the job done. They’ve dropped just one of their last three, but inconsistency has been an issue all season. The Blues are 2–2 at home and 2–4 on the road, showing they can compete but haven’t quite found that winning rhythm. That said, they’ve got some real strengths — ranked 1st in the AFL for tackling, and 4th for both clearances and inside 50s — so they’re more than capable of putting pressure on the Giants if they bring their best.
The Giants head into this game sitting 8th on the ladder with a pretty even 5–5 record this season. They’re coming off a tough 34-point loss to the Dockers at Sydney Showgrounds and are currently on a one-game losing streak. At home, they’ve been solid with a 2–2 record, while their away form is even at 3–3. The Giants are really strong when it comes to disposals, ranked 3rd in the AFL, so they like to keep the ball moving. However, they do struggle with clearances and getting the ball inside 50, ranking near the bottom in both areas. Overall, they’re a mixed bag right now, but still competitive enough to cause trouble for the Blues.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. In their last 5 games at Marvel, GWS holds a 1-4 record.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Blues hold a 3-2 record against the Giants.
Best Bet
The Under is a great bet when the Blues are playing, it's 15-1 in their last 16. The Giants aren't in their greatest form either.
Hawthorn (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (2nd)
The Hawks are sitting pretty high on the ladder in 4th place with a solid 7-3 record this season. They’re coming off a close loss to the Suns at TIO Stadium, going down 104-96, and are currently on a one-game losing streak. At home, they’ve been rock solid with a perfect 4-0 record, but on the road, they’re a bit up and down at 3-3. The Hawks are strong when it comes to kicking goals (ranked 5th in the AFL) and are tough tacklers too (3rd in the AFL), so they bring plenty of pressure. Their main weakness is clearances, where they’re only ranked 14th, so they might struggle a bit getting the ball out of contests. Overall, they’re a strong team that can cause trouble for the Lions.
The Lions have had a strong season so far, sitting 2nd on the ladder with a 7-2 record. They’re especially good on the road, going 4-1 away this year. Their strengths really stand out in clearances—they’re ranked number 1 in the AFL—and they’re also up there in disposals and inside 50 entries, ranking 5th and 3rd respectively. The Lions are coming off a narrow 11-point loss to the Demons at the Gabba and are on a one-game losing streak. Despite that, they’ve been pretty solid overall, with a 3-2 record at home and a decent last five games record of 2 wins, 1 loss, and 2 draws. Gardiner was a standout in the last game with 4 goals, so watch for him to make an impact again against the Hawks.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Hawks hold a 5-0 record against the Lions.
Best Bet
Expecting a tough and defensive clash between these two sides and the Under is 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 at the MCG, so they know how to defend here.
North Melbourne (17th) vs Collingwood (1st)
The Kangaroos have had a tough season so far, sitting near the bottom at 17th on the ladder with just 2 wins and 7 losses. At home, they’re struggling too, with a record of 1-1-3, and on the road, it’s been even harder, winning only once in five away games. But they’re coming off a bit of a high, having just edged out Richmond by 4 points in Round 10 at the MCG, where they kicked 12 goals—Zurhaar stood out with 4 of those. Their big strength is clearances, where they rank 2nd in the AFL, which helps them stay competitive. Still, they have issues getting the ball inside 50, ranking 15th in that area, which is something they’ll need to fix if they want to turn things around.
The Magpies are having a solid season, sitting at the top of the ladder with an 8-2 record. They’ve been strong both at home and away, winning 5 out of 6 at home and 3 of 4 on the road. Their tackling game is a big strength—they’re ranked 5th in the AFL for it, which really helps them control matches. Coming into this one, they’re on a two-game winning streak after a close 10-point win over the Adelaide Crows at the MCG, where they kicked 11 goals. Josh Daicos was a key player last game with 29 disposals, and the Magpies have been consistent lately with 4 wins in their last 5 games.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Marvel. Collingwood are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Magpies are 6-1 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
The Roos are coming off a rare win and the Pies are red-hot so I think both sides will attack the footy. The Over is 4-0 in this matchup too.
Fremantle (9th) vs Port Adelaide (15th)
The Dockers are having a pretty even season so far, sitting 9th on the ladder with a 5-5 record. They’re coming off a solid 34-point win over the Giants at Sydney Showgrounds, where they kicked 13 goals. Serong was a standout with 36 disposals, while Bolton and Frederick both chipped in with three goals each. The Dockers have been a bit up and down lately, winning 2 of their last 5 games, and they’re pretty balanced at home and away with a 2-2 and 3-3 record, respectively. On the downside, they struggle with disposals and tackling, ranking near the bottom of the AFL in both areas, which could be a concern against the Power.
The Power haven’t had the best run lately, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 4-6 record and coming off a tough 76-point loss to the Cats at Adelaide Oval. They’re currently on a three-game losing streak and have struggled to score goals this season, ranking 14th in the AFL for goals kicked. At home, they’re pretty average with a 3-3 record, but their away form hasn’t been great at 1-3. Rozee was solid in their last game with 32 disposals, but overall, the Power will need to lift if they want to bounce back against the Dockers.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Port Adelaide are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Power have won 7 games against the Dockers.
Best Bet
The Under is 7-1 when the Power travel away from Adelaide and Freo are usually tough to beat at home.
Adelaide Crows (6th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Crows are sitting 6th on the ladder with a solid 6-4 record this season. They’ve been strong at home, winning 4 out of 5 games, but their away form is a bit patchy with 2 wins and 3 losses. They’re one of the best goal-scoring teams in the AFL, ranked 3rd for goals kicked, so they know how to put points on the board. They’re coming off a close loss to the Magpies at the MCG, 78 to 68, where Fogarty kicked 4 goals. The Crows have lost their last game, so they’ll be looking to bounce back here against the Eagles.
The Eagles have had a rough season so far, sitting at the bottom of the ladder in 18th place with just one win and nine losses. Their away form hasn’t helped much either—they’re yet to win on the road this year, sitting at 0-5 away from home. They also struggle in key areas like clearances, disposals, goals kicked, and inside 50 entries, ranking near the bottom of the AFL in all those stats. That said, they’re coming off a rare win, beating St Kilda by 28 points at Perth Stadium, where they kicked 16 goals. Still, with a 1-4 record in their last five games, they’ve got a tough challenge ahead against the Crows.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Crows are 5-0 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
A good win for the Eagles last week but this could be a reality check. The Crows are 9-0 ATS coming off a loss and playing at home in day conditions. I think their forward line will be tough to handle over the 4 quarters.
Melbourne (14th) vs Sydney Swans (12th)
The Demons have had a mixed season, sitting 14th on the ladder with a 4-6 record. They’re coming off a solid win over the Brisbane Lions by 11 points at the Gabba, where they kicked 14 goals. Christian Petracca was busy with 31 disposals, and Jake Melksham kicked 4 goals in that game. The Demons are strong when it comes to disposals, ranking 4th in the AFL, but they do struggle with goals kicked and tackling, sitting near the bottom in those areas. Their home form hasn’t been great either at 2-4, but they’re more even away with a 2-2 record. Overall, they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games and are looking to build some momentum.
The Swans have had a bit of an up-and-down season so far, sitting 12th on the ladder with a 4-6 record. They just grabbed a solid win against Carlton at the SCG, winning by 16 points and kicking 11 goals. Dylan Heeney stood out with 38 disposals in that game. The Swans are really strong when it comes to getting the ball inside 50, ranked 5th in the AFL, but tackling has been a weakness for them, sitting 16th in the league. Their form’s pretty even both at home and away, with a 2-3 record in each. They’ve won 2 of their last 5 games and are looking to keep that momentum going.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne hold a 4-6 record. Sydney are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 3-2 against the Demons in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Both sides come off a win so this is a crucial matchup and I think betting on the points is the way to go. Sydney don't have a good record at the MCG and Melbourne have struggled here lately too. The Under has a 11-3 record in this matchup as well.
St Kilda (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (3rd)
The Saints are having a tough run this season, sitting 13th on the ladder with a 4-6 record and currently on a two-game losing streak. Their recent game didn’t go well either, losing to the Eagles 108 to 80 at Perth Stadium. Sinclair put in a solid effort with 38 disposals, while Higgins kicked 5 goals, but it wasn’t enough to get the win. They’ve been strong in tackling, ranked 4th in the AFL, but their form away from home has been pretty poor at 1-3. At home, they’re more balanced with a 3-3 record, but overall they’ve only won one of their last five games, so they’ll be looking to turn things around soon.
The Suns are flying high this season, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a solid 7-2 record and currently riding a two-game winning streak. They’re unstoppable at home, unbeaten with a perfect 4-0 record. In their last game at TIO Stadium, they edged out Hawthorn by 8 points, kicking 16 goals, with Ben Long kicking 4 and Noble piling on 36 disposals. The Suns are strong where it counts—they’re ranked 5th in the AFL for clearances, 2nd for goals kicked, and top of the league for inside 50 entries. Their only real weakness is around disposals, sitting 14th overall. Away from home, they’re decent too with a 3-2 record, making them tough to beat wherever they play.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at Marvel, St Kilda holds a 3-2 record. Gold Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Saints hold a 4-1 record against the Suns.
Best Bet
I think the Saints can bounce back because they love playing at Marvel and have an excellent defensive record here. So I think that keeps this game under the total. Gold Coast also lost their last trip here against the Tigers, scoring under 70 pts.
