2025 AFL Round 1 Betting Predictions
After a shortened Opening Round, all 18 teams are in action this weekend. Here is a preview of all the Round 1 action, starting with the traditional Blues vs. Tigers clash at the G.
Richmond Tigers (14th) vs Carlton Blues (7th)
Richmond’s long stretch of dominance over Carlton is now a thing of the past as they step into a new chapter under second-year coach Adem Yze. With several premiership stars moving on and a fresh crop of young talent coming in, the Tigers are focused on the future. But that doesn’t mean they won’t be fired up to start their season on a high and take down a team with finals ambitions.
Carlton is aiming to bounce back after last year’s disastrous elimination final exit, but their season opener comes with some challenges. The Blues have had a disrupted preseason and will be without key players, including dual-Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow and ruckman Marc Pittonet. Even so, they can’t afford to drop this one against a Richmond side many expect to be battling near the bottom.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 3-2 against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Blues should win this pretty easily but I like the chances of the Under too. Carlton are missing some firepower up forward and the Under is 6-0 in the Blues last 6 games.
Same Game Multi
I don't see the Tigers getting absolutely smashed as the Blues are 0-6 ATS and missing Curnow. So the 48.5 line looks decent value. Crippa has recorded 30+ disposals in eight of Carlton's last 10 matches against the Tigers.
Richmond +48.5 / Under 178.5 / Cripps 30+ disposals = $5.35
Hawthorn Hawks (2nd) vs Essendon Bombers (8th)
Hawthorn showed they were no one-season wonder with a blistering second-half run last year, and they backed it up by taking down Sydney in the season opener at the SCG. Now, the Hawks have a chance to make another big statement and get one over their rivals, who they haven’t beaten in this fixture since 2020.
Essendon has been playing down expectations over the summer after a couple of underwhelming seasons under Brad Scott, but a strong performance against the in-form Hawks could quickly change the narrative. The Bombers dominated this matchup last year and have only lost once—by a single point—against Hawthorn since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bombers are 5-3 against the Hawks.
Best Bet
I like this will be a high-scoring affair as the Over is 7-1 in this matchup.
Geelong Cats (10th) vs Fremantle Dockers (9th)
Geelong is no stranger to bouncing back from a preliminary final heartbreak, but last year’s last-minute loss to Brisbane would have stung more than most. The Cats have the talent to push for another deep run, but a big focus will be making their home ground a fortress again after six losses there over the past two seasons.
Fremantle has no excuses this year after just missing the finals in 2023, with a talented squad that should be just as exciting to watch as it is competitive. The Dockers can also take confidence from their recent success at Geelong’s home ground, having won their last two games there.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Dockers have won 3 games against the Cats.
Best Bet
Freo have a good record in Geelong and I think they can have success this time too.
Sydney Swans (3rd) vs Brisbane Lions (6th)
Sydney would’ve liked to be in better shape heading into a rematch with the team that tore them apart in last year’s Grand Final. Their forward line struggled, and they lacked their usual spark in transition against Hawthorn, with the absence of Gulden and Mills already being felt. History hasn’t been kind to teams coming off a big Grand Final loss, and the Swans will need to turn things around quickly to avoid slipping to 0-2.
Brisbane has had an extra week to prepare after their Opening Round clash was postponed, so they should be fresh for their premiership defence—despite some off-field distractions. The Lions will have to adjust without Joe Daniher following his shock retirement, but they’ve got plenty of talent coming through, including highly rated father-son recruit Levi Ashcroft.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 4-1 against the Swans in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
There is an interesting trend in Grand Final rematches - the Under is 4-0. The Swans forward line issues were still around last week and the Lions are missing Daniher this year. So I like the chances of a pretty low-scoring game.
Western Bulldogs (17th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (11th)
The injury-hit Western Bulldogs are looking vulnerable heading into the season, with key players like Bontempelli and Treloar missing from their best 22. But don’t expect coach Luke Beveridge to accept any excuses—he’s under serious pressure, and the Bulldogs will be desperate to start strong against a team that only managed three wins last year.
North Melbourne is hoping to snap a rough seven-game losing streak against the Bulldogs, having been smashed by an average of 58 points in their meetings since 2020. With the Dogs weakened by injuries, the Kangaroos have a golden opportunity to break the trend and show they’re ready to take a step forward this season.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs hold an 8-2 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
I think the Roos could cause an upset considering the Dogs injury woes, but betting on the points should be a safe bet. The Over has saluted in 6 of the last 8 meetings and good conditions under the roof helps.
Collingwood Magpies (4th) vs Port Adelaide Power (13th)
Collingwood went into their clash with GWS fielding the oldest side in a season opener and looked a step off the pace as the game wore on. But the Magpies are a different beast at the MCG, and last year proved they can shake off a slow start and find form quickly when it matters.
Port Adelaide is going all in for a flag in Ken Hinkley’s final season before he hands over to Josh Carr. After being outclassed by Sydney in the prelim, the Power are still chasing that elusive Grand Final appearance after 12 seasons under Hinkley. They’ll have to overcome some early setbacks, too, with Dan Houston’s departure and a pre-season injury to Zak Butters adding to the challenge.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 6-3 against the Power since 2018.
Best Bet
The Pies should bounce back at their fortress - the MCG. They've also won their last 4 against the Power and Butters is a big out for the away side.
Adelaide Crows (5th) vs St Kilda Saints (15th)
Adelaide has given coach Matthew Nicks his best shot yet at a finals run in his sixth season, bringing in Alex Neal-Bullen, James Peatling, and Isaac Cumming to strengthen the squad. The new recruits add some much-needed depth to the midfield, easing the load on captain Jordan Dawson as the Crows push to break back into the top eight.
St Kilda had a rough pre-season with injuries and poor results, but if there’s one coach who knows how to get a team firing when their backs are against the wall, it’s Ross Lyon. That said, the Saints will need to overcome their struggles at Adelaide Oval, where they’ve only won three times in 18 attempts and haven’t tasted victory since 2022.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Crows are 6-2 against the Saints.
Best Bet
The Crows had a good offseason and love playing the Saints. They're 9-1 ATS and 13-2 head-to-head. I like the value on offer for the 1-39 margin.
Melbourne Demons (12th) vs GWS Giants (1st)
Melbourne players and coaches have been vocal about clearing the air and learning from past mistakes, determined to move on from a rocky period. Now, it’s time for the Demons to let their footy do the talking as they push for a finals return, starting with a tough test against a red-hot but injury-hit Giants side.
GWS couldn’t have been much more impressive in their Opening Round win, outworking and outpacing Collingwood — even without some key players. They’ll be missing another big name with ruckman Kieren Briggs sidelined by concussion, but the Giants have shown before that they thrive on these kinds of challenges, especially in their rare visits to the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head has is tied at 4-4 since 2018.
Best Bet
GWS looked impressive last week and I think they bring that form to the MCG. The Dees have lost their last 4 in Melbourne and the Giants are 4-0 ATS at the MCG.
Greater Western Sydney -3.5 = $1.90
West Coast Eagles (16th) vs Gold Coast Suns (18th)
West Coast heads into its season opener against Gold Coast with a bit of mystery, rolling out several fresh faces — including Liam Baker — and a new coach in Andrew McQualter. While wins are always the goal, the Eagles will be just as focused on seeing progress from their young guns, especially with key players like Elliot Yeo already sidelined.
Gold Coast has been in this position before—on the verge of a breakthrough finals run, only to be derailed by injuries, inconsistency, or just not quite living up to the hype. But this time feels different, with a growing group of exciting young players eager to start strong and put an end to their struggles away from home.
This should be an exciting game to end the round and I think both sides can score plenty of points. The Over is 4-1 in the Eagles last 4 games too.
Four of West Coast's last five matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
Head to Head Record
The Suns are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
