2025 AFL Preliminary Finals Betting Predictions
The race to the 2025 AFL Grand Final is down to 4 teams. The action kicks off on Friday night with the rested Cats taking on the high-flying 8th placed Hawks at the MCG. Then, the Pies and Lions rematch of the 2023 GF should be another classic.
Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Hawthorn Hawks (8th)
The Cats had the week off before this do-or-die Preliminary Final after an impressive display against the Lions in Week 1 of the finals. They had a comfortable 112-74 result, fueled by 16 goals. Impressive young star Ollie Dempsey had one of his best games, finishing with the most disposals for the Cats (25) and led the team in goals as well (3). Jezza Cameron was a bit inaccurate but still finished with 2 majors and Max Holmes had 23 disp / 6 tackles. Mark Blicavs was impressive in the ruck, leading the side with 26 hitouts and 20 disposals.
Coming into this final, the Cats are firing at the right time. They've won 7 straight and don't have too many major injury issues. They love to start fast, wining the first half in 14 of their last 15 and that was one of their keys against the Lions, kicking 8.11 at the half. The MCG has been a favourite of the Cats this season, they've won 4 straight at the home of footy and 5-1 overall this season. In finals at the MCG, they are 5-3 in their last 8 since 2019.
In the player props, I like a few of these trends. Holmes has been in fine form this season and loves playing in Vic, getting 26+ touches in 6 of his last 7. He'll also be desperate to play in a GF after missing the 2022 victory. If Cameron can get his accuracy right (7 behinds and 6 goals in the finals), he's a good bet in the 3 to 5 goal markets. For some value, Miers has 2 or more goals in his last 3 prelims at the MCG.
The Hawks are daring to dream after back to back finals upsets over the Giants in Sydney (107-88) and the Crows in Adelaide (101-67). Last week against Adelaide, they kicked the first 3 goals of the game and never looked back, winning 101-67 in the end. Jack Gunston continued his great season in front of goals with 5 majors. Josh Ward put on an impressive display in the mids, finishing with 31 touches and 5 clearances. Sam Butler and Nick Watson also got 2 goals a piece.
One of the keys will be getting off to another quick start against the Cats and the Hawks have form in that area. They've won the 1st quarter in 7 straight games. Their record at the MCG this year is very good too, winning 7 of 10 and they beat the Dogs at the 'G in last year's finals series. However, they would love to have Will Day in the side.
Some players to watch in the player props starts with Gunston, who is arguably in career best form. He's averaging 4.2 goals in his last 5 and a total of 21 goals. He also kicked 3 goals against the Cats in the last meeting. Newcombe has hit 28+ disposals in his last 2 finals. Watch out for Josh Weddle to kick a goal, he did it last week and has kicked a goal in 6 straight games in Victoria.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 at the MCG. Hawthorn have won 7 of 10 at this venue this season.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Cats are 7-3 against the Hawks.
Best Bet
I've loved what the Hawks have done so far as the 8th team on the ladder but I think the travel factor and 2 tough finals may come back to hurt them in the 2nd half of this clash. The Cats are well rested and really don't have much injury problems. So I find it hard to back against them at the line of just 9.5 pts.
AFL Same Game Multi - Cats v Hawks
Leg #1 - Ollie Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer
Dempsey should be hard to contain for the Hawks backline. He's kicked a goal in 5 straight games since the start of August and finished with 3 last game.
Leg #2 - Max Holmes 25+ Disposals
Holmes comes off hitting 25+ disposals in 3 of his last 5 games and has a 6-1 record of getting past this mark in his last 7 Victorian games.
Leg #3 - Shannon Neale 2+ Goals
Neale is underrated in the Cats forward line. He's kicked 15 goals in his last 5 games and with all the attention on Cameron, he should get plenty of looks.
Same Game Multi
Ollie Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer / Max Holmes 25+ Disposals / Shannon Neale 2+ Goals = $5.10
Value Leg - Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals
Jai is the rock in the Hawks mids and the Cats likely won't tag him. He comes off 28 disposals against the Crows and dominated the Giants with 32.
Collingwood Magpies (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
The Pies held off the Crows in the 1st week of the AFL finals to lock in a Preliminary final at the MCG. They face off against the Lions, a team they beat in the 2023 decider, to make another GF. In the win over the Crows, there was plenty to like about the Pies performance, especially after struggling in the last month of the regular season.
Jordan De Goey led the disposals with 26 (6 clearances too) and the Daicos bros finished with 24 each. The midfield battle with the Lions will be one of the keys to this game so the form of De Goey is a big plus. Jamie Elliott was lethal in front of goals, nailed 4 majors in what has been an impressive season from him. The old vet Steele Sidebottom was also a major factor, kicking 3 straight goals.
The Pies form at the MCG recently hasn't been great, losing 3 of their last 5. But I think a home final will be a different story. They have won 4 straight finals here since 2022. Also, they are 9-0 at the MCG after winning as an underdog. The injury list doesn't look too bad as well for the Pies. They would love to get Jeremy Howe back from a groin injury and they could bring back Bobby Hill.
Some players to watch in the anytime goal scorer markets includes a few vets. Crisp loves playing finals at the MCG, having kicked a goal in 5 straight. The same can be said for Sidebottom, he's kicked a goal in his last 5 home games at the MCG (non-finals) and bagged 3 last week.
For the Lions, after losing to the Cats in Week 1 of the finals, they returned home to the Gabba and gave a reminder to the comp that they are still a threat. They smashed cross-town rivals the Suns by 53 pts. Hugh McCluggage was impressive despite a knee injury, finishing with 33 touches and 10 clearances. Will Ashcroft was also at his brilliant best with 28 touches, 2 goals and 8 clearances. Those 2 will have a major say in this matchup too.
The Lions were better in front of the goals too. Bailey and Lohmann both kicked 3 goals. Young star Logan Morris bagged 2 goals and it's hard to forget his last game against the Pies at the 'G when he kicked 7 on Darcy Moore. Let's see if he can have similar success.
While the Lions struggled to beat the Cats at the MCG a few weeks ago, their record here isn't too bad at the moment and they seem to matchup well with Collingwood. They had previously won 5 straight and that includes a win over the Pies. They also have a decent 3-3 record in their last 6 finals here.
In the player props, Cam Rayner is one to watch around the goals. He's kicked 2 or more goals in 3 of his last 4 against the Pies. Lohmann is back in form after struggling to keep his spot in the side. He's now kicked 9 goals in his last 4 and 9 in his last 3 finals. Zorko has been a great play in the 25+ disposals markets when the Lions are in the finals, he's hit that mark in 6 straight finals.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 10-4 at the MCG this season. Brisbane has won 4 of their last 5 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since the 2023 GF, the Magpies have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. But the Lions won the most recent clash at the MCG in Round 21 (92-65).
Best Bet
In a similar story to the other final, I just think the week off is such a massive advantage. The Lions had to play last week and got through against the Suns. But their performance against the Cats at the MCG in the 1st week of the finals was concerning. So I think the Pies get the job done in front of their home faithful as they looked back to their best against the Crows in Adelaide.
AFL Same Game Multi - Magpies v Lions
Leg #1 - Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer
This man will be hard to stop on Saturday night. He's kicked a goal in 3 of his last 5 games and always steps up in the big games.
Leg #2 - Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals
Elliott was unlucky to miss the All-Australian squad as this is probably his best season. He's coming off 4 goals in a final and has also kicked 2+ goals in his last 3 games.
Leg #3 - Harris Andrews 15+ Disposals
If the game goes to plan and the Pies are getting plenty of inside 50 entries, Harris Andrews has been smashing the 15+ disposal market. He's got past this mark in his last 5 games and should get plenty of marks / kicks in this one.
Same Game Multi
Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer / Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals / Harris Andrews 15+ Disposals = $4.60
Value Leg - Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals
De Goey is coming off 26 disposals in 2 straight games, including a final against the Crows. He should be fresh after missing a lot of games this season and I see him dominating in this midfield battle against the Lions.
