The AFL returns this weekend with two cracking matchups in NSW after the Tropical Cyclone saw both games in QLD postponed. The Swans will look to bounce back after last year's Grand Final loss. The Pies missed the top 8 last year and will be seeking a good start against the Giants. Here is a preview of Round 0.
Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks
Dean Cox is the new coach of the Swans, coming off a solid preseason win over the Suns despite missing a few key players. Last season, they suffered a heavy 60-point loss in the Grand Final against the Lions. While the Swans were the dominant team for much of the home-and-away season, they struggled late in the year and were ultimately dismantled by the Lions in the decider. Now, under Cox's leadership, they’ll be looking to quickly find their best form again. There are a couple of injuries to note, with Gulden and Mills both considered 50/50 to play. The Swans have a strong recent record, with three straight wins over the Hawks by an average of 66 points, and they’re 5-0 in round one of the AFL over the past five seasons.
Hawthorn made huge strides last year, finishing 7th with 14 wins and even managed to snag a final win against the Bulldogs. They came from behind to fall just short of an unexpected preliminary final spot. To strengthen their backline, they've added Josh Battle and Tom Barrass this season. However, with their improvement, the Hawks will now have to deal with the pressure of being the team everyone is after, rather than the underdogs. With rising expectations, opponents will have a better idea of how to handle their exciting style of play.
Stadium Record
Sydney has won 4 in a row at the SCG and went 11-2 last year. Hawthorn has lost 4 of their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 6-2 against the Hawks since 2018.
Best Bet
Should be a tough game but I like the Swans home record and they're usually strong in Round 1. They've won their last 5 Round 1 matches. They're 13-2 ATS in night games and have an impressive record at the SCG. Whereas the Hawks have struggled to win here recently and they have lost the last 3 meetings by an average of 66 pts.
Same Game Multi
The Swans have won their last 4 at the Sydney Cricket Ground by a 1-39 margin and I think they'll get the win by this margin again. Due to their good record in Round 1, I think they'll be able to lead at halftime.
Sydney -2.5 / Sydney 1-39 / Sydney HT/FT = $3.60
GWS Giants vs Collingwood Magpies
Greater Western Sydney put itself in a good position for a breakthrough premiership with a top-four finish last year and has since boosted its firepower by adding Jake Stringer, although he's sidelined to start the season. However, the Giants will need to bounce back from a tough finals series where they blew convincing leads in both matches, getting knocked out in straight sets. With a quick turnaround, they'll be aiming to get back into contention again. Jesse Hogan is also out with a thumb injury.
Collingwood had a tough time defending its premiership last year, struggling with a slow start and just missing out on a finals spot. Despite an ageing list, the Magpies are expected to bounce back and challenge for the top four again, especially with the addition of Dan Houston. But he is suspended for the opening round. New additions Harry Perryman and Tim Membrey looked good in the preseason.
Stadium Record
GWS are 7-3 in their last 10 at this venue. Collingwood has a 4-4 record in their history.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Giants hold a 6-4 record against the Magpies.
Best Bet
Despite injuries, I think the Giants can get the win. They have an impressive handicap record against the Pies, covering in 8 of the last 9 clashes. That includes a 32-point win in Round 1 last year. GWS are 4-0 against the Pies at this venue too.
