2025 AFL Grand Final Betting Predictions
The AFL Grand Final should be an absolute classic on Saturday at the MCG. The Geelong Cats will be looking to make it 2 GF wins in the last 3 years and their 11th in the history of the AFL. The Brisbane Lions are looking to go back to back and win their 5th Grand Final in Lions history. Here's my tips for this huge Grand Final matchup.
Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
The Cats head into the 2025 AFL Grand Final as warm favourites to lift their 2nd trophy in just 3 years. They thrashed the Swans back in 2022 and while this shouldn't be a repeat, Geelong should be very confident. In the finals so far, they've already taken down the Lions 115-85 in the qualifying finals and the week off before beating Hawthorn should help them in the GF.
Last week, the Cats were slow starters against the Hawks, falling behind at quarter time 22-9. But the 2nd half was all about the Cats and Patty Dangerfield as they piled on 11 goals to 6. Dangerfield had one of the great finals, finishing with 31 touches, 3 goals and 8 clearances. Bailey Smith was also impressive with 36 touches. Cameron had 5 shots on goal, kicking 3 and Stengle also added 3 goals.
The only trouble for the Cats is the concussion to Tom Stewart, who will miss the GF as a result. But Chris Scott will have a replacement as the Cats have a lot of depth. Jack Henry also picked up an ankle injury in the win over Hawthorn but should be fine.
In the player props, there is some good value to look out for. Bailey Smith had an impressive game against the Hawks and has now got 30+ touches in 6 of his last 7. Gryan Miers also had an excellent game against the Hawks, finishing with 27 disposals. He's nice value in the 20+ disposals markets. Another decent value bet should be Brad Close. He got 18 disposals against the Lions in Week 1 of the finals and 15 last week. Danger to get 25+ disposals is worth a shot. He got 32 last week and I can see him having another big game if Geelong get on top.
In the goal scoring markets, look out for Shaun Mannagh. He's coming off 2 goals last week and has a total of 10 goals in his last 5. As a mature player, I think he'll enjoy the Grand Final experience and it offers nice value. Mark Blicavs has kicked a goal in back to back finals, making him a nice choice in the anytime goal scorer markets. Also, Bailey Smith offers a nice price to kick a goal. He's also kicked one in both finals too.
The Lions are into their 3rd Grand Final in a row and will be looking to go back to back, a bit like the mighty Lions in the early 2000s. They've had go the hard way after losing to the Cats in the 1st week of the finals. After that performance, they bounced back nicely at home with a crushing win over the Suns at the Gabba.
Last week, they overcame the Pies and the crowd at the MCG with a massive 100-71 result. Hugh McCluggage shook off any injury concerns with a great performance - 37 disposals, 1 goal, 8 marks and 10 clearances. Zorko also picked up 28 disposals and had 9 inside 50s. Ty Gallop stood tall with 3 straight goals in the best game of his career. Bailey, Ashcroft and Rayner also added 2 goals each.
In the disposals markets for the Lions, there is some Brissy players to back. Harris Andrews picked up the Jim Stynes medal on Monday for his community work and he's been smashing it on the field too. He's coming off 15 or more disposals in his last 3 finals. Josh Dunkley loves playing the Cats having 25+ touches in his last 7 against them. Also, look out for McCluggage in the 30+ disposals market. He's got there in his last 2 games and if Brisbane win, he'll be right up there again.
Zorko should be a safe play in the 25+ disposals markets, he's hit that mark in 4 of his last 5 and has 32+ touches in his last 3 against Geelong. In the goal scorer markets, Kai Lohmann is someone who can go under the radar to kick multiple goals. He's kicked 10 goals in his last 5 games and had an impressive performance in last year's GF. Will Ashcroft gets plenty of chances to kick one, he's got 2+ goals in 2 straight finals. McCluggage can also hit the scoreboard and should offer nice value in the anytime goal scorer markets.
Stadium Record
Geelong have won 5 of their last 6 finals at the MCG. They are also looking for a 6th straight win at the G. Brisbane are 3-1 in their last 4 finals at the MCG. They are 6-1 in their last 7 at the venue since 2024.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is square at 5-5. Geelong won the last matchup 112-74 but the Lions won 2 of 3 against them this season. In finals since 2020, the Cats are 3-1.
Best Bet
I think this is a close Grand Final, similar to the 2023 clash between the Pies and Lions. So I think the head to head is a tough one if it's close and the total points looks a bit safer as the best bet. In the Cats last 6 finals, the Over has saluted in all 6. Brisbane have kicked 100 pts exactly in their last 2 wins and still managed 74 in the 1st final. Geelong haven't scored under pts since Round 18 - 8 straight games of 100+ pts.
AFL Grand Final Same Game Multi - Cats v Lions
Leg #1 - Brisbane Lions +18.5
I think the Lions can keep the margin under 3 goals this time. They have the experience of playing 3 straight Grand Finals and that should help them in the key moments. They've also performed well at the MCG lately and will be eager to overturn the 30 pt loss against the Cats a few weeks ago. The losing QF team actually has a good record in this situation, which work into the Lions favour.
Leg #2 - Jack Martin Anytime Goalscorer
Martin is someone that can go a bit unnoticed with all the attention on Cameron and Danger. He's coming off 5 straight games of 1 or more goals and should be able to sneak one in there again.
Leg #3 - Will Ashcroft Anytime Goalscorer
Will Ashcroft is the reigning Norm Smith medalist and shows up in the big games. So I think he'll hit the scoreboard in the GF. He's kicked 4 goals in his last 2 games and has hit the anytime goalscorer in both.
Same Game Multi
Brisbane Lions +18.5 / Jack Martin Anytime Goalscorer / Will Ashcroft Anytime Goalscorer = $6.00
Value Leg - Hugh McGluggage 25+ Disposals
After just 14 disposals in the loss against the Cats a few weeks ago, Hugh has bounced back nicely with 33 and 37 touches against the Suns and Pies. So I think the price for 25+ disposals is a good one.
Norm Smith Medal Contenders
Bailey Smith - A big game last week with 36 touches, and followed that with a 3rd place in the Brownlow Medal. He has played in a GF before with the Dogs, so he has the experience. But I think his price is a bit short.
Max Holmes - Missed the 22 GF and will be desperate to play well. His best season overall and has averaged 24 disposals in his last 5 games. Also kicked a goal in 2 straight finals, which is a good sign.
Patrick Dangerfield - Against the Hawks last week, Danger hit season highs in disposals (31), kicks (14) and inside 50s (9). I think Dunkley will try and stop him around clearances but Danger is going to be hard to stop. He's also never won the Norm Smith, which will be on his to-do list before retirement. A huge chance if the Cats win.
Will Ashcroft - With 2 goals against the Pies and Suns, Will is in great form heading into the GF. He won the medal last year, so the voters will be watching.
Hugh McCluggage - He's been awesome in the Lions last 2 wins with 37 and 33 touches, along with 10 clearances in both games. Tommy Atkins will likely go to him after he had only 14 touches in the 1st final. But if Hugh plays better this time and the Lions win, Hugh offers a good value bet.
Jeremy Cameron - Jezza is a smoky if he comes to play. He's coming off 3 and 2 goals in the 2 finals thus far. If he kicks 4 or 5 goals and gets 20+ disposals, I think he could get the medal.
