2025 AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Predictions
The AFL Finals are here! We have four cracking matchups to kick off the finals and it all starts at the Adelaide Oval with the Crows hosting the Pies. Let's get into it.
Adelaide Crows (1st) vs Collingwood (4th)
The Crows come into this finals clash with the Magpies in red-hot form. They’re sitting on top of the ladder with an impressive 18-5 record, including a dominant 11-1 run at home and 7-4 on the road. Even more impressive, they’re riding a nine-game winning streak and are unbeaten in their last five. Last round they got past North Melbourne by 13 points at Docklands, slotting 17 goals in the process. Ben Keays, Riley Thilthorpe, and James Peatling all chipped in with three goals each, with Thilthorpe leading the season tally at 55 majors. Statistically, the Crows are one of the most dangerous sides in the comp — ranked third for goals, fifth for inside 50s, and second for tackles. With 18 wins already on the board and their forward line firing, they’ll be tough to stop against the Pies.
The Magpies line up against the Crows sitting fourth on the ladder with a solid 16-7 record and can earn a home preliminary final with an upset over the top of the table Crows. They’ve been strong both home (9-3) and away (7-4), and come into this one off a gritty 6-point win over Melbourne at the MCG where they slotted 11 goals. Nick Daicos was busy with 27 disposals and 5 tackles, while Jamie Elliott added a couple of majors to his season tally of 52. Daicos continues to shine all year, averaging over 30 touches a game. The Pies’ biggest weapon is their pressure — they’re ranked number one in the AFL for tackles — but they do have issues around clearances and ball use, sitting 14th in both areas. Their recent form has been patchy at 2-3 across the last five, but they’ll take confidence from last week’s win as they look to build momentum heading into this clash with the ladder-leading Crows.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 10-0 in their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval. Collingwood are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Magpies are 9-1 against the Crows.
Best Bet
After a form slump at the end of the regular season, the Pies come to Adelaide as underdogs but I like their chances. The bye week would have helped their older players recover and potentially fix up their backline issues. They also love playing in Adelaide having won 9 of their last 10. I think the Crows are still a bit young and don't have a lot of finals experience, which may cost them in the big moments. Take the Pies to cover.
SGM
Collingwood’s recent run of unders points should lead to another tighter total. Ben Keays’ 15+ disposals at night at Adelaide Oval is a consistent banker and it helps that Rankine is out of the side. James Peatling kicked 3 goals in his last game and has kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games - offers great value.
Under 160.5 pts / Ben Keays 15+ disposals / James Peatling Anytime Goalscorer = $6.50
Geelong Cats (2nd) vs Brisbane Lions (3rd)
The Cats are in sizzling form for this final against the Lions, riding a six-game winning streak and sitting second on the ladder with a 17-6 record. Fresh off a 39-point win over Richmond at the MCG where they piled on 14 goals, they’ve locked in a home final and look every bit a contender. Jeremy Cameron was the standout up forward with four goals, taking his season tally to a massive 83, while Bailey Smith dominated through the middle with 34 touches — he’s averaging a league-best 31.7 disposals per game. The Cats have been strong everywhere this season, going 9-2 at home and 8-4 away, and their stats back it up — ranked second in goals, third in inside 50s, and third in tackles across the AFL. With form, firepower, and momentum on their side, they’ll be tough to stop against the Lions.
The Lions head into their finals showdown with the Cats sitting third on the ladder with a 16-6 record as they look to defend last year’s title. They’re coming off a tight 10-point win over Hawthorn at the Gabba where they kicked 11 goals, with Josh Dunkley (33 disposals) and Hugh McCluggage (32 disposals) leading the charge through the midfield. The Lions’ biggest strengths are around the contest — they’re ranked first in both clearances and disposals, and second for inside 50s — which makes them tough to beat when they’re on top around the ball. Logan Morris continues to be their main target up forward with 48 goals for the season. While their tackling pressure has been a weakness (ranking 17th in the AFL), they’ve still put together a strong campaign with a 9-1-2 record on the road and 7-4 at home. With back-to-back wins and a bit of momentum building, they’ll be fired up to take on the in-form Cats.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
This is another final where I think it's a 50/50 and the Lions present good value as an underdog. They don't mind travelling to Melbourne as they're now 8-0 in the state of Victoria. They've also won some big finals at the MCG over the last few years, including a 10 pt win over the Cats in last year's final series. The underdog tag suits them too, they're 15-0 as a betting underdog. I think Geelong have had a soft schedule coming into the finals after playing the Tigers and Bombers, which may not be the best form guide.
SGM
Brisbane’s eight-game winning streak in Victoria sets a strong platform to take the start, while Hugh McCluggage’s anytime scoring form and Oliver Dempsey’s reliable goal output at the ‘G add attacking legs with upside. A live underdog plus two proven anytime goal scorers builds a juicy multi.
Brisbane Lions +6.5 / Hugh McCluggage Anytime Goalscorer / Oliver Dempsey Anytime Goalscorer = $8.50
GWS Giants (5th) vs Hawthorn (8th)
The Giants earned a home final with a strong 16-7 record, including 8 wins at home and 8 on the road. They’ve hit some good form lately with three straight victories and four wins from their last five. Last round they got past St Kilda at Sydney Showgrounds by 11 points, piling on 15 goals with Toby Greene leading the charge up forward with four majors. Aaron Cadman (44 goals) and Jesse Hogan (43 goals) have also been key targets all season. Through the midfield, Tom Green (averaging 29.5 disposals), Lachie Whitfield (28.3), and Finn Callaghan (28.1) continue to rack up the ball, with Whitfield and Ash both cracking 30+ touches last week. The Giants are ranked 4th in the comp for disposals and 5th for goals, so they’re a dangerous side when they get their game going, though clearances remain their weak spot at 15th. With their stars in form and plenty of momentum, they’ll fancy their chances against the Hawks.
The Hawks take on the Giants this week sitting 8th on the ladder with a 15-8 record. They’ve been almost unbeatable at home with a 10-1 record, though their away form has been patchier at 5-7. Last round they went down to the Lions at the Gabba by 10 points in a tight contest, with Karl Amon racking up 34 disposals and Mabior Chol chipping in with three goals. Jack Gunston has been their main target all year, leading the goalkicking with 62 majors. Stat-wise, the Hawks are tough around the ball, ranked 5th in both disposals and tackles, and they’ve won three of their last five to stay in the hunt. With strong midfield numbers and plenty of firepower up forward, they’ll be looking to bounce back hard against the Giants.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the Sydney Showgrounds, GWS hold a 8-2 record. Hawthorn are 0-8 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Giants hold a 3-2 record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
The Giants should be tough to beat on their home turf as the trends are against the Hawks. They've never won at this venue in 8 attempts and it will be even tougher in a final. Whereas, the Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games at the Sydney Showgrounds and that home ground advantage should be tough to back against.
Greater Western Sydney Giants = $1.77
SGM
Six straight head-to-head unders suggest another grind, and GWS’ strong first-half profile in Week 1 Finals day games lines up with the market trend of home teams covering against Hawthorn. Back a slower total, Giants to edge the line, and to be in front at the main break.
Under 169.5 pts / GWS -3.5 / GWS HT Lead = $4.50
Fremantle (6th) vs Gold Coast Suns (7th)
The Dockers head into their elimination final clash with the Suns sitting 6th on the ladder and locked in for a home final after a strong 16-7 season. They’ve been solid both at home (8-3) and away (8-4), and their recent form has been impressive with four wins from their last five. Last round they took down the Bulldogs by 15 points at Docklands, piling on 17 goals with Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss, and Patrick Voss all booting three each. Treacy has been their main man up forward this year with 42 goals. While the Dockers do struggle in the disposal count, ranking 16th in the comp, their scoring power has been on full display. With momentum on their side and a finals spot secured, they’ll be tough to beat against the Suns.
The Suns are gearing up for their first ever finals campaign, finishing the season in 7th spot with a 15-8 record. They’ve been strong at home with a 9-2 record, while splitting their away games 6-6. Last week they absolutely smashed Essendon at Carrara, winning by 95 points and piling on 23 goals. Ben King was unstoppable with seven majors to take his season tally to 69, while Noah Anderson (34 disposals and 3 goals) and Matt Rowell (31 disposals and 2 goals) dominated through the middle. Anderson’s been one of the league’s top ball winners all year, averaging 30.2 touches per game. Stat-wise, the Suns are elite in attack and around the contest — ranked 1st for inside 50s, 4th for goals, and 4th for clearances. With their midfield firing and King in hot form, they’re heading into their showdown with the Dockers full of confidence and plenty of momentum.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Gold Coast are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 3-2 against the Suns in the last 5.
Best Bet
The Suns make the finals for the first time and have to travel, which is not something they are good at. They're 1-16 ATS an away underdog and have lost their last 8 games in WA as an underdog too. The Dockers have a good record in finals week 1, winnning 5 of their last 6 by the 1-39 margin. I don't see them blowing out the Suns so a comfortable 1-39 margin presents good value.
SGM
With eight of the last nine Dockers v Suns clashes landing under and Gold Coast struggling to cover as an away underdog (16 of its last 17), this build leans into a low-tempo game with Fremantle controlling early. Under 163.5 pairs neatly with Freo -10.5 and a HT lead for a tightly correlated same-game multi at a value price.
Under 163.5 pts / Fremantle -10.5 / Fremantle HT Lead = $4.20
