2024 AFL Semi Finals Betting Predictions
The AFL semi finals are the focus this week. On Friday night footy, the Power are underdogs against the surging Hawks. Meanwhile, the Giants will look to bounce back against the Lions.
Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks
Port Adelaide finds itself with an opportunity for redemption after suffering a crushing defeat at the hands of Geelong in the qualifying final. The Power were completely outplayed in the 138-54 loss, marking the largest margin of defeat by a home team in a final since 2005. This staggering result left the team and its supporters reeling, as the Cats dismantled them in almost every facet of the game. While Port struggled across the board, it was their defensive unit that bore the brunt of the damage. Geelong’s small forwards ran riot, seemingly operating without restriction and finding space with ease. Despite this heavy loss, there is a silver lining for Port Adelaide. They have proven in the past that they can rise to the occasion. Port overturned a massive 41-point third-quarter deficit to edge out the Hawks 80-79 at Adelaide Oval. This upcoming match offers Port Adelaide the chance to bounce back from the Geelong thrashing and prove they are capable of competing at the highest level. To do so, the Power will need to address the weaknesses exposed in their defence and find ways to contain the opposition’s forwards more effectively. Their midfield will also need to lift its performance to provide the forwards with better opportunities and limit the supply to the opposing team’s attack.
The Hawks continued their strong form with a commanding 37-point victory over the Western Bulldogs in the elimination final. The win showcased their growing confidence and form as they progress further into the finals. Jai Newcombe was the standout performer, dominating the midfield with 35 disposals and 9 marks. In his first-ever final, Nick Watson delivered an impressive performance, kicking 4 goals, while Calsher Dear contributed with 2 goals of his own to solidify the Hawks' dominance on the scoreboard. Earlier in the season, the Hawks and Port Adelaide faced off just once, with Port narrowly escaping with a one-point victory in round 10 after a thrilling comeback. However, the Hawks have transformed since then, emerging as a formidable force. They’ve won 12 of their last 14 games, and head into the next encounter full of confidence and belief as they prepare to travel to Adelaide. Despite their momentum, the Hawks will be without key midfielder Will Day, who has already been ruled out, and defender Sam Frost, who underwent season-ending foot surgery. These injuries pose a challenge, but the team’s depth and current form suggest they are still a serious contender.
The Hawks are favourite despite playing in Adelaide, which says a lot about the Power's performance last week. I think they'll stand up this week but their defence is a worry. As such, I like the Over, which is 5-1 in the last 6 games at the Adelaide Oval.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 2-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 4-3 against the Hawks since 2018.
Best Bet
GWS Giants vs Brisbane Lions
How the Giants recover — both physically and mentally — from their bruising loss to Sydney will be crucial as they prepare for their next challenge. Despite a strong performance from Jesse Hogan and Aaron Cadman, who each kicked 3 goals, the Giants allowed a massive lead to slip away in the final quarter against the Swans, raising concerns about their ability to close out games under pressure. However, there’s reason for optimism. The Giants have already beaten the Brisbane Lions twice this season and will enjoy the advantage of playing on their home ground. Their most emphatic victory over the Lions came on Anzac Day, where they dismantled them by 54 points in Canberra. The Giants’ tackling pressure will be key to their success. Last week, they won the tackle count, a crucial statistic considering Brisbane is the worst tackling team in the AFL. At the forefront of this effort was Tom Green, who led by example at the contest, winning a career-high 14 first possessions against the Swans. If the Giants can maintain this pressure and intensity, they have a strong chance of extending their dominance over Brisbane.
It's difficult to draw too many conclusions from the Lions' dominant win over an underprepared Carlton side last week. One major concern remains their inconsistency in front of goal, which has been a recurring issue throughout the season and could be a key factor in their upcoming match. Despite kicking 14 goals, Brisbane also recorded 15 behinds against the Blues. Cam Rayner led the way with 3 goals, while five other players chipped in with 2 goals each. However, their overall shot accuracy remains a problem. Over their last four games, the Lions have managed a goal accuracy of just 37.3 percent — the worst in the competition. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Brisbane hasn't played the Giants at the Sydney Showgrounds for more than four years. They will be looking for redemption after suffering a 54-point defeat to GWS on Anzac Day and their ability to improve their finishing in front of goal could be pivotal in seeking revenge.
I think this will be a tough final and could be decided in the last quarter. But, I like the Unders trend with the Lions as it's 7-0 in their last 7 games.
Stadium Record
GWS are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 0-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the head to head is tied at 5-5.
Best Bet
