AFL 2024 Premiership Winner Prediction
As the anticipation builds and the countdown to the AFL 2024 season begins, fans and punters alike eagerly speculate on which team will emerge victorious and claim the ultimate prize: the Premiership. Here's my view on how the season is shaping up.
Collingwood Magpies ($5.5) - After securing an impressive 18 consecutive wins and clinching victory against the Lions in the Grand Final with a last-minute kick, the Pies are aiming for a rare back-to-back premiership. They boast a strong combination of young talent and seasoned veterans in my view, which has contributed to their recent success. With Diacos emerging as a frontrunner for the Brownlow Medal, I anticipate him playing a more prominent role in the midfield, further strengthening their lineup and enhancing the Pies chances of continued success in 2024. Not to mention, Craig Mcrae just seems like a really good coach to play under and I think his playing group is all on board.
Brisbane Lions ($6) - After last year's disappointment in the Grand Final, the Lions should be determined to bounce back and redeem themselves. With Lachie Neale's exceptional performance resulting in a Brownlow Medal win, they have a formidable asset in the midfield along with Dunkley in his 2nd season at the Lions. The return of young star Ashcroft from injury promises to bolster the midfield even further. However, they anticipate a challenging season ahead due to a tough draw, which includes two matchups each against opponents like the Pies, Saints and Dees. Despite these challenges, I don't see them falling out of the top 4, especially with such a strong home ground advantage at the Gabba.
GWS Giants ($8) - The Giants displayed a remarkable performance under a new coach in 2023, securing a commendable 7th place finish. Their journey ended in a valiant effort in the Preliminary Final, where they narrowly succumbed to a 71-70 defeat against the Pies. However, as they enter the new season, the challenge lies in their transition from being the hunters to the hunted. There is uncertainty surrounding their ability to withstand the heightened pressure that comes with being a targeted team. So I just don't see them winning the flag just yet.
Carlton Blues ($9) - After enduring a challenging period with six consecutive losses in the middle of last year, the Blues experienced a remarkable turnaround by embarking on a nine-game winning streak. This impressive feat not only propelled them into the finals but also marked the end of their long finals drought. Although they faced a defeat against the Lions in the finals, falling short by 16 points, I think the Blues' spirits should be buoyed by the significant achievement of breaking their finals drought. With this weight lifted off their shoulders, their confidence is expected to soar as they look ahead to future challenges and opportunities in the upcoming season.
Sydney Swans ($10) - Having finished 8th last year, the Swannies faced an early exit from the finals, falling to the Blues in the opening week. Despite this setback, they have consistently been contenders in the finals race, having secured a spot in the finals over the last three consecutive seasons. The offseason acquisitions of Grundy and Adams aim to strengthen the roster and should help them with experience in those positions. However, they are faced with the challenge of navigating through the absence of Callum Mills, who will be sidelined due to a shoulder injury. Also, this will be their first season with no Buddy in the forward line and he was still a key goal-kicker for them in the last few years.
Melbourne Demons ($10) - Following their triumph in the 2021 Grand Final, the Dees have encountered difficulties, losing their last four finals matches at the MCG. The upcoming season brings added scrutiny, particularly on Oliver, who faced challenges during the offseason. Attention will be on him as the team strives for improvement. Additionally, the Grundy experiment from last year did not get the desired results, prompting a need to address issues in the forward line. While Petracca shows promise as a solution, his versatility is crucial in both the midfield and forward positions. I also think the Dees face a fairly daunting fixture, with tough matchups against opponents like the Lions, Pies and Power, each to be played twice throughout the season.
Port Adelaide Power ($13) - The Power had an impressive 2023 season, securing 17 wins and demonstrating their strength on the field. With rising stars like Butters and Rozee hitting their prime, expectations are high for the team to maintain their momentum. The Power also benefit from a strong home advantage at the Adelaide Oval, which further bolsters their confidence and performance. Additionally, their fixture for the upcoming season appears favourable, as they are spared from facing tough opponents like the Lions or Pies twice, providing an opportunity to capitalise on their strengths and secure more victories. With these factors in their favour, I think they can finish in the top 4 again. I just worry about their performances in the big finals as they've proven to struggle when it comes to the big games.
Best Bet
AFL 2024 Top 4
Adelaide Crows - The Crows emerge as strong contenders for the top 4 in my view. Despite missing the finals due to a controversial goal umpire decision last year, I think they will be fueled by a sense of determination and unluckiness. The leadership of captain Dawson continues to evolve, supported by Laird, while Taylor Walker's impressive goal-scoring performance adds depth to their forward-line strategy. With a well-structured and youthful defence, the Crows showcase resilience and potential. Their dominance at the Adelaide Oval, securing 9 wins out of 11 home victories last year, underscores their strength on home turf. To make the top 4, improving their performance in interstate matches will be pivotal for the Crows in 2024.
Best Bet
AFL 2024 Top 8
St Kilda Saints - I think the Saints are well-positioned to secure a spot in the top 8. Under the guidance of coach Ross Lyon, they managed to overcome numerous injuries last year, showcasing their resilience and potential for improvement in the upcoming season. With a favourable fixture that includes matchups against the Eagles twice and only facing a top 4 side twice (the Lions), the Saints have an opportunity to capitalise on their strengths. However, their focus should be on enhancing their performance in away games outside of Melbourne to solidify their standing in the top 8.
Best Bet
AFL 2024 Season Wins
GWS Giants
The Giants surprised everyone last year with an impressive tally of 13 wins and came agonisingly close to reaching the Grand Final. However, there are doubts about their ability to replicate this success and secure over 14.5 wins in the upcoming season. Despite their remarkable performance, they may struggle to maintain their momentum. As a result of last year, they face a challenging fixture, including 2 games against top 8 sides from last year such as the Lions, Blues and Swans. This demanding schedule presents a significant test for their capabilities as a team in my opinion.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers
I think the Tigers face significant challenges in the next few seasons as they contend with the loss of key experienced players such as Riewoldt, Cotchin and coach Damien Hardwick. Additionally, the veteran presence of Dusty Martin, nearing the twilight of his career, poses uncertainties about their midfield strength. Amidst these transitions, they have a formidable fixture too, with double matchups against formidable opponents like the Blues, Power and Saints. So I don't see them getting over 10 wins.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks demonstrated their potential in 2023 with notable victories over both Grand Final teams, the Pies and Lions, at the MCG. Despite being a young team, they secured seven wins, showcasing their progress under the guidance of coach Sam Mitchell. With a promising forward line led by Mitch Lewis and a talented midfielder in Jai Newcombe, I think the Hawks have solid depth and skill across the field. However, the reliability of James Sicily in defence is crucial, although concerns remain about potential suspensions. Overall, I'd say the Hawks are poised to continue their upward trajectory in 2024.
Best Bet
