2024 AFL Round 5 Betting Predictions
Get ready for another thrilling round of AFL action as we go through our betting predictions for Round 5 of the 2024 season!
Melbourne Demons (2nd) vs Brisbane Lions (13th)
The Dees (2nd) are on a roll, claiming victories over both South Australian teams in Adelaide recently. Now they're gunning for a fifth straight win before heading into a bye week. Despite their bright start, they'll need to keep an eye out on the Lions, who are still fighting hard despite their current struggles to start the new season after losing the GF.
Brisbane finally got their first win against North Melbourne but faces a daunting task against Melbourne, especially given their shaky record at the MCG. Interestingly, Brisbane has won only three of their last 28 matches at the venue, but two of those wins came against Melbourne, including a semi-final clash in 2022.
7 of Brisbane's last 8 games at the MCG have seen total match points go Over so I'm expecting a high-scoring affair to start the round.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 1-5 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 6-4 against the Lions since 2018.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Essendon Bombers (12th)
The Doggies had a close call against Geelong but just couldn't seal the deal on the scoreboard, leaving them eager to prove themselves against Essendon, who shares the same win-loss record. However, the Bulldogs can take comfort in their recent dominance over Essendon, winning nine of their last ten matchups.
Meanwhile, Essendon has had its ups and downs this season with a 2-2 record. Now, they face the challenge of living up to expectations with a consistent performance. Their midfielders will play a crucial role in this matchups, especially against the formidable duo of Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore.
The Over is 5 of the Bulldogs' last 6 games and good conditions under the roof should see both sides playing an attacking style.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Essendon are 17-7 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 7, the Bulldogs hold a 6-1 record.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (1st) vs St Kilda Saints (9th)
GWS (1st) faced a tough challenge from Gold Coast but managed to pull away for the win, becoming the first team since 2017 to start a season with four scores over 100 points. The Giants, who ended St Kilda's campaign last year, are now looking to make their Canberra home a fortress after just one win in their last 10 matches at the venue.
St Kilda (2-2) had to play catch-up against Richmond after a slow start but rallied in the second half. After kicking just 1 goal in the first half, they stormed home to win their 2nd game of the year. But they'll need to avoid a similar scenario against the red-hot Giants, especially with tough matchups against the Bulldogs and Power up next.
13 of St Kilda's last 15 interstate games have seen total match points staying under.
Stadium Record
GWS are 1-4 in their last 5 games at the Manuka Oval. St Kilda are 1-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 4-1 against the Giants in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (4th) vs Adelaide Crows (15th)
Carlton is off to a flying start at 4-0 for the first time since their last premiership in 1995, but they won't forget the threat Adelaide poses. Last year, the Blues were riding high with three wins and a draw before the Crows handed them a reality check, kicking off a tough run of eight losses in nine matches. Although the Blues seem more solid this time around, they face a challenging month ahead, making this clash even more crucial.
Adelaide sits at 0-4 and will be solely focused on turning their season around. With the top eight slipping out of reach, the Crows are desperate to avoid becoming just the second AFL team since 1975 to start a season with four straight losses and still make the finals. Their hopes are hanging by a thread as they look to bounce back against Carlton.
Adelaide has suffered defeat in each of its last four matches by a margin of 1-39 points and Carlton have won all four this season by 1-39.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 14-9 at the Docklands since 2021. Adelaide are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 8, the Crows are 5-3 against the Blues.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (10th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (16th)
Gold Coast shook things up last week with seven changes to their lineup, a gutsy move that nearly paid off as they kept pace with GWS until the final term. However, this week presents a different challenge for the young Suns as they face off against a Hawthorn side they're expected to handle.
Despite their best efforts, the Hawks remain winless after a narrow loss to Collingwood where they rallied late with seven of the last eight goals. The concern for the Hawks lies in their slow starts, averaging just one goal to five in their opening terms and trailing at halftime in every match so far. They need to switch on from the first bounce instead of relying on a late surge.
Hawthorn has failed to cover the line in each of its last four night matches and I think they'll struggle to compete with the Suns strong midfield.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 4-1 in their last 5 games at Carrara. Hawthorn are 0-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 4-3 against the Suns since 2018.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (6th) vs Fremantle Dockers (7th)
Port Adelaide put on a clinic in their big win against Essendon, but they're feeling the pressure to capitalise on their home turf advantage in three consecutive matches after a close loss to Melbourne. Luckily for them, they've got a perfect record against the Dockers at Adelaide Oval, winning all six previous matchups.
Fremantle are coming off a tough loss to Carlton so they will be eager to bounce back and prove themselves against Port Adelaide. A win here could set them up nicely, especially with a local derby and matches against tough opponents like the Bulldogs and Tigers on the horizon.
The Power have covered the line in each of its last five matches against Fremantle, and they've won all six previous matchups against them at Adelaide Oval.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Fremantle are 2-3 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 5-3 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (5th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th)
Geelong is on a roll with four straight wins, but they've had some close calls despite leading in every quarter this season. They're unlikely to face such tight margins against North Melbourne, a team they've beaten 11 times in a row since 2015.
North Melbourne has had a tough start to the season, facing off against last year's preliminary finalists and now a formidable opponent in Geelong. They'll need to focus on shoring up their defence and minimising the damage against the Cats before they can assess where they stand in the coming weeks.
North Melbourne has lost 24 of its last 25 matches, so I don't think they'll be able to turn things around against Geelong at the Cattery.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 7-3 in their last 10 games at Kardinia Park. North Melbourne are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 11 meetings, the Cats hold an 11-0 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Richmond Tigers (14th)
West Coast is off to a rough start at 0-4 for the first time since 1989, but they showed improvement in their last game, even giving Sydney a scare. Harley Reid stepped up big time, and they've managed to break even in inside 50s for two weeks straight. But it's tough without Oscar Allen up forward.
Richmond are sitting at 1-4 and put up a fight against a finals contender but fell short against St Kilda in Gather Round. They missed chances to seal the game, which has been the story of their season thus far. Now they'll look to bounce back against struggling West Coast before facing tougher opponents. They have a good record in Perth so this should be a comfortable win coming up.
Richmond has covered the line in eight of its last nine matches on a seven-day turnaround, while West Coast has lost 11 of its last 12 matches at Optus Stadium.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 1-9 in their last 10 games at Perth Stadium. Richmond are 4-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Tigers are 6-2 against the Eagles.
Best Bet
