2024 AFL Round 4 Betting Predictions
The excitement is set to reach fever pitch as Gather Round descends upon Adelaide this weekend! Here are Bluey's AFL Round 4 Betting Predictions for the 2024 season.
Adelaide Crows (15th) vs Melbourne Demons (3rd)
For Adelaide, sitting at 15th place with no wins in their bag yet, it's do or die as they enter the Gather Round following three consecutive defeats that have put their dreams of making it back to the finals on thin ice. Playing at home might give the Crows a much-needed morale boost, but the Demons showed last week against the Power that they're not afraid to take on any challenge at Adelaide Oval.
On the flip side, Melbourne, with a solid 3-1 record, managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in their round three clash against Port Adelaide, even though Port was dominating for most of the game. The Demons are riding high with their forward line firing on all cylinders, especially with Ben Brown kicking three crucial goals. They'll be facing an Adelaide Crows team with issues at both ends of the field, which might give Melbourne an advantage.
Melbourne has secured victory in seven of its last eight night matches at the Adelaide Oval, while Adelaide has narrowly lost four of its last five matches against top-four opponents by a margin of 1-9 points.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Melbourne are 5-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 8, the Demons are 6-2 against the Crows.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (14th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (16th)
Brisbane, currently sitting in 14th place with a winless record of 0-3, is hoping for a much-needed boost as they face off against North Melbourne. With two losses already at the Gabba, the Lions are eager to turn things around and playing against the Kangaroos might just be the opportunity they need. They've got a solid track record against North Melbourne, winning all six of their clashes since 2018. So they'll need to capitalise on this game before facing tougher opponents and a QClash in the following weeks.
North Melbourne, also struggling with a 0-3 record, knew they were in for a tough start with matches against last year's preliminary finalists. Despite the challenging schedule, the Roos are aiming to improve their ball control, especially to support their defence, which is struggling to contain opposition forwards due to being undersized.
Each of North Melbourne's last four matches has exceeded the total match points line.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 6-2 against the Kangaroos since 2018.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (8th) vs Essendon Bombers (9th)
Port Adelaide holds a 2-1 record and put up a good fight against Melbourne, managing more shots on goal and 21 extra inside 50s, but they couldn't seal the deal with a big win against a top-four team. Now, they've got to take advantage of their second home game in a row as they face Essendon, a team they've beaten in all seven of their meetings since 2018. Plus, it's worth noting that Dan Houston is celebrating his 150th game this Friday.
As for Essendon, also with a 2-1 record, they showed a lot of heart in their impressive comeback win against St Kilda, with their midfield dominating the crucial battles on the field. While they're still a team in development, they can really boost their position early in the season by securing another win, this time against a team eyeing the finals.
Port Adelaide has failed to over the line in each of its last four matches at the Adelaide Oval and the Bombers are coming off an underdog win.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval.
Essendon are 1-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 9, the Power hold a 7-2 record.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (18th) vs Sydney Swans (5th)
West Coast are currently at the bottom of the ladder in 18th place and they are facing some tough times. It's not going to get any easier as they go up against a wounded Sydney team. Last year, Sydney absolutely demolished them by 171 points in this very matchup. The Eagles are having a rough go, becoming just the sixth team in AFL history to not win a single quarter in their first three matches. They've got to hope they can at least break that streak to give their young players a bit of a confidence boost.
Sydney, with a 3-1 record, had made a strong statement at the start of the season, positioning themselves among the top teams, until they stumbled with a surprise loss to Richmond. Even though they fielded a younger team than the Tigers, they've learned the hard way that in this competitive league, you can't afford to let your guard down. They need to be wary of underestimating their opponents, especially knowing that teams facing adversity often step up their game.
Sydney has the wood over the struggling Eagles, covering the line in six of its last seven matches against them.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play here.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Swans are 6-1 against the Eagles.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (2nd) vs Carlton Blues (6th)
Fremantle are sitting in 2nd place and have been on fire with their unbeaten streak this season, but now they're facing a tough challenge against the red-hot Carlton. Despite some injuries in their defence, the Dockers have been dominating with their midfield, which is now seamlessly transitioning into the forward line.
As for Carlton, boasting a 3-0 record, they're eager to keep their impressive start going and finally break their winless streak of 0-7 at Adelaide Oval. With Jacob Weitering back in the lineup, their defence looks more solid, but it's their forward line that's really striking fear into opponents, especially with Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow already tallying up 21 goals between them.
Carlton loves a close game at the moment and the Dockers have covered in 6 of their last 7. So I'm looking for a close finish here.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 2-2 at this venue since 2021. Carlton are 0-7 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Blues are 6-3 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (7th) vs Geelong Cats (4th)
The Western Bulldogs are in 7th place with a 2-1 record and they took care of business with a solid win against West Coast. Now, they've got to step up and show their mettle against a top-four team like Geelong. Despite their victory, the Bulldogs still need to tighten up their game, especially in the inside 50s department, where they let the Eagles keep pace — a weakness they'll want to address against the stronger Cats.
On the other hand, Geelong, currently sitting in 4th place, is gearing up for another shot at the top four with a flawless start to the season, though they know tougher challenges are on the horizon. The experienced Cats understand the importance of capitalising on a winning streak and securing early-season wins. Plus, young talents like Tanner Bruhn are coming into their own, adding a fresh spark to the team. It's also worth noting that Mark Blicavs is celebrating his 250th game this weekend and they celebrated Tom Hawkins' 350th in style last week.
Geelong has dominated, winning 17 of its last 20 matches against the Western Bulldogs, who have struggled to meet the line in six of their last eight away night matches.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 2-2 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021. Geelong are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 4-1 against the Bulldogs in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (10th) vs GWS Giants (1st)
The Suns are currently holding the 10th spot with a 2-1 record, and had a breather last week to recover from a bit of a letdown against the Western Bulldogs, which dimmed the bright start they've had under Damien Hardwick. Expect some ups and downs as they adjust to their new coach's style, but this young team seems ready to step up and challenge themselves against the high-flying Giants.
As for GWS, they are sitting pretty at the top of the ladder. They've had the upper hand against Gold Coast lately, winning 11 out of their last 12 encounters dating back to 2014. However, they can't afford to take it easy, especially considering that the Suns managed to snag a win the last time they met on neutral ground at Mars Stadium back in 2021.
GWS has comfortably secured victory in seven of its last eight matches against Gold Coast by a margin of 25 points or more.
Stadium Record
Both teams haven't played at this stadium.
Head to Head Record
In the last 7, the Giants are 6-1 against the Suns.
Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney -16.5 = $1.90
Richmond Tigers (13th) vs St Kilda Saints (11th)
The Tigers are 13th with a 1-3 record and come off an impressive win over Sydney at the MCG. But they got a harsh reality check after their uplifting win as it turned sour due to injuries sidelining Tom Lynch and Noah Balta. Their victory was built on intense pressure, but now, with two key players out, they'll need to dig deep and find strength around stoppages to stand a chance against a shaky St Kilda.
The Saints would be kicking themselves for not capitalising on their early dominance against Essendon last week, which resulted in another disappointing loss, casting shadows over their promising start to the season. With a clash against a wounded Richmond up next and a tough game against GWS on the horizon, the Saints can't afford to let another opportunity slip away.
St Kilda has consistently exceeded expectations in each of its last three matches as the favoured team against Richmond.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play at Norwood Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 6-4 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (12th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (17th)
The Magpies finally got their season started with a win against Brisbane at the Gabba. Now, they've got to keep the momentum going by snatching another victory away from home. Despite a rough start against the Lions, the Magpies rallied with their own intense play, showing promising signs for the competition ahead.
Hawthorn (0-3) put up a fight against the formidable Geelong, even with stormy weather throwing a spanner in the works. However, just keeping it close isn't going to cut it for the Hawks. They need to figure out how to secure wins, perhaps even pulling off another upset like they did against the Pies last year.
Hawthorn has outperformed expectations in six of its last seven matches against Collingwood, while the Pies have secured victory in each of its last six matches at the Adelaide Oval by a margin of 1-39 points.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 5-0 in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval. Since 2021, Hawthorn have a 1-1 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-2 against the Magpies in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
