2024 AFL Round 3 Betting Predictions
It's time for another thrilling round of AFL action as the Easter break sees footy from Thursday to Monday. It all starts with a grand final rematch with both the Lions and Pies desperate for their first win of the season.
Brisbane Lions (12th) vs Collingwood Magpies (15th)
The Brisbane Lions, currently sitting in 12th place, have had a rollercoaster start to the season with two losses under their belt. They've had some blazing beginnings, but then things cooled off before heating up again, only to falter in the middle. But a return to the Gabba on Easter Thursday could get them back on track.
Meanwhile, Collingwood finds themselves in a tough spot at 15th place with three consecutive losses. It's not looking good for the reigning premiers, who are now part of the unlucky club of teams to lose their first three matches after winning the premiership. Making matters worse, stats aren't on their side either; no team since 2007 has made it to the top four after starting 0-3. Tom Mitchell celebrates his 200th game this week so hopefully that gives the Pies a bit of extra motivation to get a win.
Collingwood's recent games have consistently exceeded the predicted total match points, with the Pies allowing an average of 15 goals per game, while their opponents, the Lions, have conceded around 13 goals per game.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 9-1 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Collingwood are 0-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 6-3 against the Magpies since 2018.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (16th) vs Carlton Blues (7th)
North Melbourne currently sit in 16th place after an 0-2 start. They had a promising start against Fremantle despite some missed shots at goal. However, they quickly fell into old habits, getting overrun in the second half. Their upcoming match against Carlton is crucial for them to show progress, especially since it's a significant occasion, being their seventh Good Friday Clash.
On the other hand, Carlton is off to a decent start with two narrow wins under their belt. They know they could have easily been on the other side of the scoreboard in those matches. Now, facing the young Kangaroos presents them with an opportunity to solidify their position near the top of the ladder.
North Melbourne has suffered defeats in nine of their last ten matches at Marvel Stadium, each loss coming by a margin of 1-39 points.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-26 at the Docklands since 2021. Carlton are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 3-2 against the Kangaroos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (5th) vs Adelaide Crows (13th)
Fremantle has been quite a surprise package this season, snagging two wins despite slow starts. They managed to snatch eight points in an upset against Brisbane and secured an expected win against North Melbourne. Now, they have a chance to really make a statement as they face off against fellow finals hopefuls on their home turf.
Adelaide hasn't had the start they hoped for, sitting in 13th place with no wins yet. Despite expectations for steady progress this season, they're already facing some tough challenges. With a poor away record of 2-9 since last year, they urgently need to turn things around, especially on the road, if they want to keep their hopes alive for a shot at the top eight.
Adelaide's struggles away from home continue, as they have lost eight of their last nine matches on the road.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Since 2021, Adelaide have a 2-1 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Dockers are 4-2 against the Crows.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (11th) vs St Kilda Saints (9th)
Essendon, currently positioned 11th with a 1-1 record, has made it clear they're adopting a physically robust style of play. However, they now need to translate that aggression into tangible results on the scoreboard, even when faced with adversity. In their recent clash against Sydney, they struggled to contain their opponent's transitions, conceding a concerning 36 shots. Tightening up their defence will be crucial as they prepare to take on a St Kilda side known for its similar fast-paced approach.
St Kilda has caught attention with their rapid and dynamic gameplay in the season's opening matches. Their win against Collingwood was largely due to their relentless pressure all over the field, particularly highlighted by their dominance in tackles within the 50-metre arc. They also effectively disrupted the reigning premiers' ball movement while showcasing their own attacking flair. With their talented ball carriers, they present a formidable challenge for Essendon, particularly considering the Bombers' defensive injury woes.
In their matchups at Marvel Stadium, Essendon has outperformed expectations in five of their last six games against St Kilda, with the underdog prevailing in the last three encounters.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. St Kilda are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the head to head is tied at 3-3.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (3rd) vs Melbourne Demons (4th)
Port Adelaide is about to face its first real challenge of the season. Despite some shaky accuracy in front of goal, they've managed to convincingly defeat West Coast and Richmond. The Power's midfield is in top form, with players like Zac Butters and Connor Rozee shining, while their key forwards, including Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall and Jeremy Finlayson, have already racked up an impressive tally of 12 goals.
Meanwhile, Melbourne has started the season strong with comfortable wins against Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs. However, they now face another top-four contender, with concerns at both ends of the field. While injuries to Steven May and Jack Lever might not be as severe as initially feared, they still pose a challenge for the Demons, potentially disrupting their defensive strength and limiting their attacking options. Congrats to Jack Viney as he brings up 200 AFL games.
Melbourne has shown strength against higher ranked opponents, covering the line in each of their last nine matches and securing victory in 11 of their last 13 games as the underdog.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Melbourne are 4-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 4-3 against the Demons.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (10th) vs West Coast Eagles (18th)
The Bulldogs won't be forgetting the danger that an under-pressure West Coast can present, especially after suffering a surprising loss when they clashed in round 23 last season. After missing out on the finals and starting this season with doubts looming over them following a lacklustre defeat to Melbourne, the Bulldogs finally found their rhythm with an impressive victory over Gold Coast.
There are some concerning signs for West Coast (0-2 record), as they struggled to score until the final quarter against GWS. However, they showed some fight towards the end, which at least stemmed the tide of losses. At this point, the Eagles will be aiming for small victories and simply outscoring their opponents in a quarter seems like a reasonable goal to strive for as they work to turn their season around.
Following heavy losses, West Coast has bounced back to cover the line in their last four matches. They also beat the Dogs at this venue recently last season so hopefully, they show a similar spirit.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. West Coast are 2-5 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (14th) vs Sydney Swans (2nd)
Richmond is probably getting fed up with putting up valiant efforts only to come out on the losing end. Breaking this pattern won't be easy, especially against a red-hot Sydney team. While the Tigers are trying to adapt their playing style under new coach Adem Yze, they urgently need to figure out new strategies for advancing the ball, particularly considering their inside 50 differential is among the worst in the league.
Sydney is absolutely thriving with a flawless 3-0 record, making the most of their attacking style across the entire field. The Swans look incredibly sharp, scoring goals not just from their forwards but also from their dynamic midfield. Especially Isaac Heeney who's stepped up with Parker and Mills sidelined. With such a balanced and potent squad, the only thing that might slow them down is if they get too comfortable with their early success.
Sydney has demonstrated consistent performance, covering the line in seven of their last eight matches, while Richmond has faced difficulty, losing seven of their last eight games.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Sydney are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 4-3 against the Swans since 2018.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (17th) vs Geelong Cats (6th)
Hawthorn attempted to play it safe and controlled in their match against Melbourne, but it didn't quite pan out. They'd be better off ramping up their intensity, especially around the ball. So far this season, the Hawks have struggled with their clearance game, sitting at the bottom with an average clearance differential of just -10.5. They're also lacking in tackles, sitting dead last with a differential of -20. However, facing their longtime rivals presents an opportunity to address these issues and tighten up their game.
Geelong (2-0) has made a strong start to the season, securing wins against other top-eight contenders despite facing injuries and late withdrawals from key players. The Cats may have to navigate more injury concerns with their captain, Patrick Dangerfield, sidelined. But they should be fired up in Tom Hawkins' 350th game (all for Geelong) and I think he'll have a good matchup against a struggling Hawks backline.
Hawthorn's recent form has been poor, as they have suffered defeats in each of their last four matches. So I think Geelong will be dangerous in Hawkins' milestone game.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 1-4 in their last 5 games at the MCG. Geelong are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 3-2 against the Hawks in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
