2024 AFL Round 23 Betting Predictions
There's only 2 rounds left in the regular season so Round 23 is crucial for some sides that are looking to make the top 8. It starts on Friday night footy with the desperate Bombers against the top of the table Swans.
Essendon Bombers (10th) vs Sydney Swans (1st)
Essendon blew a chance to get back into the top eight when some poor kicking late in the game let Gold Coast sneak a rare road win. The Bombers have now lost the last three games that were decided by a goal after the siren, and with seven losses in their last ten matches, their finals hopes are barely hanging on.
Sydney finally broke a three-game losing streak by pulling off a thrilling comeback with five straight goals to beat Collingwood. Despite that, there were still some concerning moments before they turned things around. At least the win gives the Swans some breathing room from the teams chasing them, and if they can beat the Bombers, they should lock in a top-two finish and a couple of home finals.
The Over is 9-1 with the Bombers involved and good conditions under the roof should see a high scoring clash.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Swans are 6-4 against the Bombers.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (12th) vs Melbourne Demons (13th)
Gold Coast finally broke their terrible streak on the road with a thrilling, after-the-siren win over Essendon. Now, they’re heading back to their home turf with a chance to achieve a club first. The Suns have only lost once at home this year, to their close rivals the Lions, and another home win against the Demons would put them on the edge of finishing with a winning record for the first time.
Melbourne has lost four in a row, watching their finals hopes slip away as rumours of off-field issues keep swirling. Even so, the Demons can still end their season on a high note against a Suns team they’ve beaten in their last 11 meetings since 2015, with a big game against the Magpies still on the horizon.
The Dees are struggling and the Suns are 13-0 at home as a favourite.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Melbourne are 2-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Demons are 7-0 against the Suns.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (3rd) vs Fremantle Dockers (6th)
GWS is probably the hottest team in the competition right now after their comeback win over Brisbane, but they need to be careful not to slip like some of the other top-four teams have recently. The Giants have won six straight, closing in on a double chance and a couple of home finals, and they’re getting back to full strength with key players returning from injury just in time for the final stretch.
Fremantle was in a great spot for a double chance just two weeks ago, but now they're in danger of missing the finals entirely after two close, costly losses. The Dockers need at least one more win to feel safe about a top-eight finish, but with the red-hot Giants and Power up next, they have to treat their remaining games like elimination finals.
GWS are 6-0 ATS and should be tough to beat at home.
Stadium Record
GWS are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Fremantle are 0-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 3-2 against the Giants in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney -11.5 = $1.90
Collingwood Magpies (11th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th)
Collingwood had sparked some hope in their shaky title defence with a couple of wins, including a close one against Carlton, but then they got edged out by Sydney in a similar nail-biter. The Magpies might have beaten the Lions in a Grand Final the last time they faced off at this venue, but with only two rounds left, their title defence is hanging by a thread.
Brisbane was within reach of the top spot and a couple of home finals after winning nine in a row, and it looked like they’d make it 10 before they came to a halt against GWS last week. That loss dropped the Lions from second to fifth, and now they need to win both of their remaining games and hope other results go their way to secure a double chance.
The Pies last 2 games have been 3 pt margins so I think they keep it close with the Lions too.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 6-3 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Brisbane are 2-3 in their last 5 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Lions are 6-4 against the Magpies.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (14th) vs Geelong Cats (4th)
St Kilda is looking to finish a rollercoaster season on a high note after winning four of their last six games, although their results have been all over the place, swinging between big wins and heavy losses. While the Saints are already out of finals contention, they have a chance to make a statement for next season by shaking up their rough stretch against the Cats, where they’ve only managed three wins in the last 17 meetings.
Geelong has bounced back from a mid-season slump with six wins in their last seven games, putting the double chance back in their control. The Cats are heading into unfamiliar territory with this being their first visit to the venue this season, but they’re in a good spot to aim for a top-four finish with games against the Saints and Eagles left in their run home.
Should be a low-scoring affair between these two sides.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Geelong are 3-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 7-2 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (2nd) vs Adelaide Crows (15th)
Port Adelaide has climbed up to second place with four straight wins, making it six victories in their last seven games. The Power are proving they can perform in all kinds of situations, whether it’s dominating the ladder leaders or grinding out a tough win against the Demons last week. Now, they’re gearing up for a finals-like atmosphere in the Showdown, a game that hasn’t gone their way recently.
Adelaide might miss the finals again, but they’ve still got bragging rights with wins in the last three Showdowns, each by an average of 36 points. The Crows have found some late-season form, winning four of their last seven games, and they’ll head into the off-season on a high if they can upset their arch-rivals' top-four hopes.
Adelaide has won the last 3 showdowns as an underdog and they come off a great win over the Dogs.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Adelaide are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (7th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th)
The Western Bulldogs were charging towards a top-four spot until they stumbled against Adelaide in a potentially costly loss last week. Now, their finals spot isn’t even guaranteed. They’ll be looking to get back on track against a Kangaroos team they’ve beaten in their last six meetings by an average of 52 points, especially with the in-form Giants up next.
North Melbourne gave the Bulldogs a real scare just seven weeks ago, losing by only three goals as they started to turn their form around. The Kangaroos have continued to show improvement in most games since then, though they still struggle in tight finishes, as shown by their late collapse against the Eagles last week when they gave up a 13-point lead in the dying moments.
The Over is 8-1 when the Dogs are at Marvel.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 2-8 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs hold a 5-0 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (8th) vs Richmond Tigers (18th)
Hawthorn has jumped into the top eight for the first time this season and looks like a serious contender after a big win over Carlton, making it 11 victories in their last 14 games. The Hawks are playing with a lot of energy and enthusiasm, which could make them tough to beat come finals time. They’ve also got a strong record at this venue, with four straight wins by an average of 53.8 points.
Richmond couldn’t stop St Kilda from pulling away last week and has now lost eight in a row, with an average margin of 39 points. The Tigers can’t even rely on their former fortress to lift their spirits, having lost 10 of 11 games there this season. However, they could still find some positives by shaking up the finals race if they can manage to take down the high-flying Hawks.
The Tigers are 3-0 against the Under and they'll likely struggle to score against the Hawks too.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 4-1 in their last 5 games at the MCG. Richmond are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Hawks in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (16th) vs Carlton Blues (9th)
West Coast has found a spark late in the season, pulling off a thrilling last-minute win over North Melbourne to make it two victories in a row under their interim coach. The Eagles might even fancy their chances of making it three straight wins for the first time in over three years as they face the struggling Blues at home.
Carlton looked like they were headed for a top-two finish as recently as round 19, but a rough patch with five losses in their last six games has seen them drop out of the top eight for just the second time this season. With injuries piling up, the Blues will have a tough time against the 16th-placed Eagles.
A lot of key injuries for the Blues so this will likely be a tough trip. Eagles to get a 3rd win in a row.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Carlton are 3-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Blues have won 3 games against the Eagles.
Best Bet
