2024 AFL Round 22 Betting Predictions
Round 22 kicks off with the struggling Swans looking to turn things around against the Pies at the SCG on Friday night footy. Here's a look at all the Round 22 action.
Sydney Swans (1st) vs Collingwood Magpies (11th)
Sydney was cruising toward a grand final spot with a 13-1 start to the season, but then things went south. They lost five of their next six games, including a brutal 112-point thrashing by Port Adelaide. Now, their grip on a top-four finish is shaky as their stoppage strength crumbles. They’ve got a tough match ahead against the rejuvenated Magpies.
Collingwood celebrated Scott Pendlebury’s 400th match in style with a win over arch-rivals Carlton, making it two wins in a row and boosting their top-eight hopes. But they can’t afford to slip up after losing four straight games before that, which left them with a mediocre percentage. They face the struggling Swans next, followed by the in-form Lions.
The Swans are woefully out of form and I think the Pies will be highly motivated to get into the top 8.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the SCG. Collingwood are 1-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-1 against the Magpies in the last 5.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs GWS Giants (4th)
Brisbane is amazingly closing in on the top spot after starting the season with a 2-5 record. They’ve only lost once more since then and are now on a hot streak with nine wins in a row. The Lions are looking dangerous, showing balance across all lines as they head towards another finals campaign with two matches left at home.
GWS has become the new masters of close games, with back-to-back wins by just two points and a 4-1 record in matches decided by under a goal this year. The Giants have won five in a row, surging back into top-four contention. They’ll deserve the double chance if they secure it, with tough games against the in-form Lions, Dockers, and Bulldogs ahead.
The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. GWS are 0-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-1 against the Magpies in the last 5.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th) vs West Coast Eagles (16th)
North Melbourne has turned things around since their mid-season bye, winning three of their last nine matches and losing two by less than a goal. The Kangaroos impressed by withstanding an early onslaught and then overrunning the Tigers last week to move away from the wooden spoon. They can now aim to avoid a bottom-two finish for the first time since 2019 with a win over the Eagles.
West Coast snapped a 10-game losing streak with a win over Gold Coast last week, giving interim coach Jarrad Schofield his first victory in charge. The Eagles could secure back-to-back wins for just the second time since 2021 if they can overcome the gradually improving Roos on a rare visit to Hobart.
In the last 6 matchups, the Under is 6-0.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Kangaroos hold a 3-2 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (6th) vs Geelong Cats (5th)
Fremantle seemed to have a top-four spot in the bag with a 25-point lead over Essendon in the final term, but they stalled and ended up losing by the narrowest margin. Now, the Dockers have to watch their backs with the chasing pack close behind, holding just a one-win advantage over the Bombers in ninth, and tough matches against the Cats, Giants, and Power coming up.
Geelong had to fight off a determined Adelaide in the final moments last week but managed to clinch their fifth win from the last six matches, staying in the hunt for the top four. A win against Fremantle could push the Cats closer to securing a double chance, especially with upcoming games against the Saints and Eagles. This would also give retiring great Tom Hawkins more time to recover from injury and potentially return to play again.
Freo has gone 6-0 against the Over and I think this will be high scoring too.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 7-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Geelong are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Dockers hold a 3-2 record against the Cats.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (9th) vs Gold Coast Suns (13th)
Essendon has injected new life into their season with a thrilling comeback win over the in-form Fremantle last week. While it was only their third victory in nine matches, it keeps them within reach of the top eight. This upcoming match is a must-win for the Bombers, with tough games against the Swans and Lions looming.
Gold Coast has dropped out of finals contention, enduring a rough streak of playing away from home for all 10 matches this season and their final seven last year. However, the Suns are a different team when playing at home and managed to stun the Bombers just nine weeks ago, kicking off Essendon's alarming run.
The Suns are terrible away from the GC and the Bombers will be desperate to make finals.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Docklands. Gold Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at the Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Suns in the last 5.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (12th) vs Port Adelaide Power (3rd)
Melbourne's finals hopes are hanging by a thread after dropping three matches in a row due to a mounting injury toll. The Demons need three wins, a healthy percentage boost, and some favourable results from other games. They can start improving their chances with an upset over the Power, with matches against the Suns and Pies still to come.
Port Adelaide has stormed into the top four for the first time since round 13, following a massive 112-point win over ladder leaders Sydney. The Power now control their own destiny for a double chance in the finals and could even aim for a top-two finish, which would ensure two home finals. Their upcoming games include the wounded Demons and the Crows before a potentially pivotal clash with the Dockers.
I think this will be pretty low scoring and the Under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Port Adelaide are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head has is tied at 4-4 since 2018.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (8th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (10th)
Carlton might be feeling the heat after four losses in their last five matches, though Sydney’s horror run has shifted some focus away. The Blues have dropped from second place, where they had been for seven weeks, down to eighth. They now face a crucial clash with the Hawks, but with games against the struggling Eagles and Saints still to come, there’s a chance to bounce back.
Hawthorn had surged close to the top eight with 10 wins in 12 matches but could lose momentum after a painful defeat to GWS, where they gave up a decent lead. The Hawks need a win over the Blues to catch up on points, although they probably won’t overtake their percentage until they face the bottom-two sides, the Tigers and Roos, in the coming weeks.
Based on form, you have to like the Hawks. Carlton is 0-5 ATS.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 4-1 in their last 5 games at the MCG. Hawthorn are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 3-2 against the Hawks in the last 5.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (18th) vs St Kilda Saints (14th)
Richmond missed a chance to climb off the bottom of the ladder, despite a promising start in their clash with the bottom-two sides. The Tigers have another shot to break their seven-match losing streak against the unpredictable Saints, all while paying tribute to retiring star Dustin Martin.
St Kilda seemed to be gaining momentum with a couple of big wins, but they undid much of their progress with a heavy loss to Brisbane. It was no surprise they were outclassed, but their forward issues resurfaced as they scored less than 70 points again, which is likely to be a bigger concern.
I think the Saints rebound after last week as Richmond holds an 0-10 ATS record here.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 2-8 at this venue since 2021. St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Saints have won 4 games against the Tigers.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (15th) vs Western Bulldogs (7th)
Adelaide has had a wild season, missing out on finals contention well before the end. However, their breakthrough win at Geelong’s home ground last week was a highlight. The Crows still have more than just pride at stake, as they could play the role of finals disruptor with games against the Bulldogs, Power, and Swans coming up.
Western Bulldogs are pushing hard for a top-four spot with a strong percentage, having won four straight matches and six of their last seven. However, their only loss in that stretch was to the Power at this same venue, which hasn’t been kind to them since their preliminary final victory in 2021.
The Doggies are in great form and I think they win this easily.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 1-4 in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Bulldogs have won 4 games against the Crows.
Best Bet
