2024 AFL Round 18 Betting Predictions
Round 18 of the AFL season starts with a huge clash between the Pies and Cats at the MCG on Friday night footy.
Collingwood Magpies (9th) vs Geelong Cats (5th)
Collingwood has been struggling with back-to-back losses as injuries pile up, and their luck in close games seems to be running out. The Magpies hadn't lost a game decided by two goals or less for over a year, winning 11 of those matches, but now they’re running out of time to find their form and fitness with some tough games ahead.
Geelong are showing signs of a comeback with solid wins over Hawthorn and Essendon. They could make a statement with a third win in a row against the reigning champs. With a refreshed midfield driving their success, the Cats are back in the hunt for a top-four spot, and the Pies are one of only three finals contenders they’ll face in the remaining games.
The Over is trending with the Cats at the G, it's 12-1 in their last 13 games.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 6-3 in their last 10 games at the MCG. In their previous 10 games at the MCG, Geelong hold a 5-5 record.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Magpies in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (13th) vs Fremantle Dockers (3rd)
Hawthorn's five-match winning streak came to an abrupt end when they were blown away by Geelong at GMHBA Stadium last week. However, the Hawks are back at their own stronghold this week to face the Dockers, where they've won their past four matches and 12 of their last 15. A victory is crucial to keep up with the finals contenders.
Fremantle has kept ahead of most top-four contenders with three straight wins and starts the round just half a win behind second place. The Dockers have been excelling with their balance of power and skill around the stoppages, while their backline frequently turns defence into attack with intercept possessions.
The Hawks play this ground very well and the Under is 8-0.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 5-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Dockers are 6-2 against the Hawks.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (1st) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (17th)
Sydney looked unstoppable with 13 wins out of their first 14 matches, including a streak of 10 in a row. But their weaknesses have been exposed in two recent close losses. The Swans have struggled when letting the opposition control the ball and pace, so they'll need to be cautious of an improving Kangaroos team trying to do the same this week.
North Melbourne finally got the win they deserved after some much-improved performances, beating Gold Coast after three close losses with an average margin of just seven points. Now, they face a big challenge against the Swans, but they can take confidence from nearly beating the ladder leaders in a close game last year.
The Over is now 4-0 when the Swans are at the SCG.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the SCG. North Melbourne are 0-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Swans hold a 5-0 record against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (11th) vs Carlton Blues (2nd)
The Western Bulldogs are still one of the most unpredictable teams this season, falling short of winning three games in a row when they were outplayed by Port Adelaide. They're now dealing with an injury crisis, but they’ve shown they can still challenge the top teams, like when they took apart Fremantle just three weeks ago.
Carlton might have been due for a loss after five big wins, but the way they lost to GWS, blowing a 39-point lead, was pretty worrying. The Blues are now just one win ahead of the Power in sixth place, but they can refocus on finishing in the top two with a game against the injury-hit Bulldogs and the Kangaroos next week. Plus, Patty Cripps is celebrating his 200th game.
The Blues are 7-0 against the Over so I like the chances of a high-scoring clash.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the Docklands. Carlton are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 5-3 against the Blues since 2018.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (15th) vs St Kilda Saints (14th)
Adelaide gave the in-form Brisbane a scare last week but is running out of chances to secure wins to build on for next year. The Crows will be aiming to leapfrog the Saints and boost their chances of avoiding a bottom-four finish for the first time since 2021, especially with a tough run against six finals contenders coming up.
St Kilda found the effort and intensity that got them to the finals last season, stunning ladder leaders Sydney last week. That win lifted the Saints above the Crows into 14th place. While they haven't beaten a top-half team since round one against the Magpies, Ross Lyon's side has managed to outperform those around them.
Can't see a high-scoring affair and the Under is 8-2 in the last 10.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 21-23 at this venue since 2021. St Kilda are 1-4 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Crows are 3-2 against the Saints in the last 5.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (10th) vs Essendon Bombers (4th)
Melbourne took advantage of facing a struggling West Coast with a big win, suggesting their rough patch of only two wins in seven matches might be behind them. The Demons are still dealing with injuries to key players, but they need to find a way to beat a finals contender for the first time since round eight if they want to stay in the race for a spot in September.
Essendon made a big statement with their first win this season over a top-eight side by defeating Collingwood and knocking the reigning premiers out of the finals spots. They can't double down on that this week against Melbourne, but they can still boost their hopes of securing a double chance, especially with games against the Crows and Saints coming up.
The Under is 8-0 when the Dees are at the MCG.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Essendon are 5-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 3-2 against the Bombers in the last 5.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (12th) vs Port Adelaide Power (6th)
Gold Coast is leaning heavily on its strong home form to keep its finals hopes alive, struggling due to a terrible record on the road. The Suns should be extra motivated to make a statement against Port Adelaide after coach Damien Hardwick's verbal tirade about their lack of effort in another away loss, this time to the Kangaroos.
Port Adelaide has bounced back from a humiliating defeat to Brisbane with two wins that have revitalized their campaign. The Power can now ride this momentum against a team they’ve beaten in their last 14 matches since a surprise loss in their first meeting in 2011, including all seven games at a venue that's become a fortress for the Suns.
Gold Coast has covered the line in each of its last 11 matches at People First Stadium following a loss.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Port Adelaide are 1-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 6-0 against the Suns.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (18th) vs GWS Giants (8th)
Richmond is in 18th place on the ladder for the first time in club history. The Tigers have fallen below the Kangaroos on percentage after losing their last three matches by an average of 53 points. They might now focus on avoiding heavy defeats to dodge the wooden spoon.
Greater Western Sydney is hoping to have reignited their season after coming from behind to beat Carlton, securing just their third win in the last nine matches. That victory lifted the Giants back into the finals spots, and they now have a chance to boost their top-four hopes against the bottom-placed Tigers, with three more matches against sides currently outside the top eight coming up.
Each of the last four matches between Richmond and GWS have gone OVER the total match points line.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 2-8 in their last 10 games at the MCG. GWS are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Tigers hold a 3-2 record against the Giants.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (16th) vs Brisbane Lions (7th)
West Coast has lost its early-season promise, now facing six defeats in a row and issues at both ends of the ground. The Eagles only gave up an average of 69 points per game in their three wins this season, while conceding 104 in their 13 losses. They'll have a tough time limiting the damage against the third-highest scoring team, the Lions.
Brisbane has climbed to within one win of the top four with five straight victories and will fancy their chances against a struggling West Coast, a team they've beaten in their last five meetings by an average of 54 points. The Lions might look for another big boost to their percentage, especially with the Dockers also eyeing a double chance and having a draw like Brisbane.
The Over is 7-1 in the Lions last 8 games.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at the Perth Stadium. Brisbane are 2-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 5-1 against the Eagles since 2018.
Best Bet
