2024 AFL Round 17 Betting Predictions
Round 17 kicks off with a massive clash between the Pies and the Bombers at the G on Friday night footy.
Collingwood Magpies (6th) vs Essendon Bombers (4th)
Collingwood might have finally run out of luck, suffering a rare narrow defeat to Gold Coast last week even after taking a late lead. The Pies are usually the kings of close games, though the Bombers were the first to shake their confidence with an Anzac Day draw 10 weeks ago, showing just how evenly matched these two teams are now.
Essendon missed another chance to prove their top-four credentials with a tough loss to their nemesis, Geelong. The Bombers haven't beaten a team outside the bottom three since round nine, losing to the three finals hopefuls they've faced in that time. This week, they'll get another shot to prove themselves against the reigning premiers.
The Over has saluted in 4 of the last games with the Bombers and I think it gets up here too.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 7-2 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Essendon are 4-5 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Magpies hold a 6-3 (1 draw) record against the Bombers.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th)
North Melbourne couldn't quite keep up their recent promising performances, but a late surge gave the Western Bulldogs a scare like they haven't had in five years. The Roos still need to figure out how to turn those valiant efforts into wins, but they should fancy their chances against a Suns team that tends to struggle when playing away from home.
Gold Coast had a huge win this season, beating Collingwood and extending their home winning streak to seven games, though they still need to break through with a win on the road. While the Kangaroos are showing signs of improvement, the Suns will be hoping to take advantage of facing the bottom team and finally snag a victory in Victoria for the first time in over a year.
The Under is 5-1 in the Roos last 6 and the Suns don't travel that well.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-32 at this venue since 2021. Gold Coast are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Suns are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Kangaroos in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (7th) vs Western Bulldogs (9th)
Port Adelaide is feeling the heat despite a close win against St Kilda, holding onto their spot in the top eight and tied on points with the reigning champs by the end of round 16. They're heading back to where they suffered a big loss to the Lions recently, hoping to win back their fans who were disappointed despite their previous premiership success.
The Western Bulldogs have struggled with inconsistency and haven't been in the top eight since round six, even after consecutive wins including one against North Melbourne last week. However, if they can secure a third straight win and other games go their way, they could jump ahead of Port Adelaide and maybe even reach fifth place, a position they haven't held all season.
The Over is trending with the Dogs, it's 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. The Bulldogs are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 4-1 against the Bulldogs in the last 5.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (5th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (13th)
Geelong showed its critics with a solid win over Essendon, even though they got a few lucky breaks when the game was tight. The Cats are looking more like their old selves and now aim to distance themselves from the competition, starting with their old rivals, Hawthorn, followed by matches against Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs.
Hawthorn has turned things around from a winless start to the season, now boasting a positive win-loss record after stringing together a few victories. The Hawks face a tough test ahead, including matches against Geelong, Fremantle, and Collingwood, which will really put their top-eight credentials to the test.
The Hawks are 8-0 ATS and playing great footy, so I think they give the Cats a scare.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Hawthorn are 0-0 since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Cats hold a 4-1 record against the Hawks.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (10th) vs Carlton Blues (2nd)
Greater Western Sydney may have more wins than losses, but signs suggest their season could be on the brink of collapse with six losses in their last eight matches, including a recent defeat to Adelaide. The Giants have struggled to score over 80 points during this stretch, facing challenges with their ball movement and finding it difficult to score goals.
Carlton sits comfortably in second place on the ladder after a convincing win over Richmond, marking their fifth consecutive victory with an average winning margin of 43 points. The Blues are nearly at full strength and performing well across all parts of the field, showing no signs of complacency as they aim for their first top-two finish since 2000.
The Giants form is a bit inconsistent and the Blues are 5-1 ATS when they face GWS.
Stadium Record
GWS are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the GIANTS Stadium. Carlton are 2-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Giants hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (3rd) vs Richmond Tigers (17th)
Fremantle made a statement across the league by outworking and overpowering Sydney's midfield, securing a win that moved them up to third place. Now, the Dockers look to solidify their spot in the top four against a weakened Richmond side, with upcoming matches against their arch-rivals, the Eagles, and other top-eight teams.
Richmond kept pace with Carlton for more than half of the game before being overwhelmed after halftime by their in-form rivals. The Tigers have been plagued by injuries that have disrupted much of their season, but this challenging year has provided opportunities to discover new talent and develop their squad.
Great win for the Dockers last week and they should continue the form against the struggling Tigers.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 5-4 in their last 10 games at the Perth Stadium. Richmond are 4-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the head to head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (12th) vs West Coast Eagles (16th)
Melbourne did a lot of things right against the improving Brisbane team until they slowed down significantly in the final quarter, failing to score a goal, just like the previous week against North Melbourne. The Demons will be looking for a similar strong performance to get their season back on track, but they know they can't underestimate the threat posed by the Eagles, who upset them seven weeks ago.
West Coast is heading to the MCG for the first time in over a year, boosted by their 35-point victory over Melbourne in round 10, which showed promise for their future performances. However, the Eagles haven't been able to maintain that level of play, suffering five losses since then, including three at home, and they're still looking for their first road win of the season.
Should be low scoring at the MCG and the Under is 15-5 in the last 20 games with the Dees.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the MCG. West Coast are 1-4 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Demons hold a 3-2 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (15th) vs Sydney Swans (1st)
St Kilda came close but fell just two points short against Port Adelaide, leaving them still searching for only their second win against a top-eight team since round two, with their other notable victory coming against Gold Coast. The Saints could turn things around quickly if they manage to pull off a major upset against the current top team in the competition, despite their earlier struggles.
Sydney's aura of invincibility took a hit as they failed to recover from another slow start, narrowly losing to Fremantle. The Swans are worried about their midfield being outplayed and are eager to bounce back from their first loss since round three.
Sydney get back on track after last week and have played well at this venue.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the Docklands. Sydney are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 5-3 against the Saints since 2018.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (8th) vs Adelaide Crows (14th)
Brisbane is on a roll, climbing into the top eight for the first time this season with just one loss in their last eight games. They even had a draw against the Crows earlier, but now the Lions are in even better form, with their midfield stars firing on all cylinders and aiming for a top-four finish.
Adelaide bounced back from a rough patch by dominating Greater Western Sydney last week, ending a three-game losing streak. While the Crows are likely too far behind to make a late run for the finals, securing their first win at the Gabba since 2018 and following it up with a win against St Kilda next week could give them a glimmer of hope for the rest of the season.
Like the Over at the Gabba and it's 5-0 when these two sides meet.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Adelaide are 0-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Crows in the last 5.
Best Bet
