2024 AFL Round 16 Betting Predictions
The byes are over so the race to make the AFL top eight is in full swing. On Friday night footy, the surging Lions look to continue their march up the ladder as they host the Dees at the Gabba. Here's a preview of every AFL Round 16 matchup.
Brisbane Lions (10th) vs Melbourne Demons (9th)
The Lions are on a roll with three straight wins, including a massive 79-point blowout against Port Adelaide last week in Adelaide, that was super impressive. This winning streak has them climbing the ladder and a victory over the Demons could push them into the top eight, especially with games against the bottom-four Adelaide and West Coast coming up.
Melbourne barely scraped by with a win against North Melbourne to dodge a third straight loss. The Demons haven’t beaten a fellow finals contender since they stopped Geelong's winning streak in round eight. They've lost four of their six matches since then and really need to turn things around to stay in the mix for the top eight. It's especially tough with Petracca on the sidelines and Oliver is out of form.
The Over is now 6-0 in the Lions last 6 and I think this will be another high-scoring clash.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Melbourne are 1-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th) vs Western Bulldogs (11th)
North Melbourne has seen a turnaround since getting their first win of the season just before their bye. Even though they’ve had close losses to Collingwood and Melbourne since then, their performances have been solid and their percentage has improved. They still need another win to leapfrog Richmond and get out of last place.
The Western Bulldogs balanced their win-loss record with a big win over Fremantle, but then slipped a couple of spots during their bye week. Now, they’re looking to climb back up the ladder and could end the round in the top eight. They’ve got a good track record against the Roos, having beaten them in their last five meetings by an average of 59 points.
North are showing a lot more spirit at the moment and have covered in 4 of their last 5.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-31 at this venue since 2021. The Bulldogs are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 6-2 against the Kangaroos since 2018.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (1st) vs Fremantle Dockers (5th)
Sydney has been on fire, winning 10 matches in a row for the first time since 1935. They've built a solid three-win lead atop the ladder and have the best percentage in the league. Now, they're aiming for their best-ever win-loss record at this stage of the season. Their biggest challenge might just be avoiding complacency, as they're currently ranked No.1 for both points scored and points against. Slow first-quarters have been issue too.
Fremantle has climbed to fifth place despite some ups and downs this season. Now, they get to test themselves against the top team in the competition. A surprise win over the Swans could really boost their chances of making the finals, especially with their next four games against teams outside the top eight.
The Over is 5-0 in the Swans last 5 and they've kicked 100+ pts in 5 straight too. So I think the SCG will see a high-scoring affair on Saturday.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 27-9 at this venue since 2021. Fremantle are 1-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-1 against the Dockers in the last 5.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (12th) vs Collingwood Magpies (4th)
Gold Coast has been struggling on the road, losing seven matches in a row and having trouble scoring, especially around their bye week. But now they have a great chance to show their home ground is a fortress as they take on the reigning premiers while still holding a perfect home record.
Collingwood barely got past the last-placed North Melbourne, but it was enough to move them up to third before they dropped back to fourth during the bye. That narrow win might be the wake-up call the Magpies needed. They shouldn't be too worried about playing at the Gold Coast though, since they've won their last five matches there by an average of 41 points. It's almost like a home game at Carrara too.
Tough game to pick so I like the Over. It's 6-0 when the Suns are at home.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Collingwood are 2-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Magpies have won 4 games against the Suns.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (15th) vs GWS Giants (6th)
Adelaide seemed to be getting back to the positive play and pressure that worked for them last year, but three straight losses have pretty much sealed another bottom-half finish. They still have a slim mathematical chance of making the finals, but it’s looking like another year focused on development.
GWS got outplayed by Sydney last week, but they’re still in the running for a top-four finish thanks to five straight wins earlier in the season and some reinforcements coming in. The Giants can’t afford to lose games like this one against an opponent they’ve only lost to twice since 2017, especially with a tougher match against the Blues coming up.
Another 50/50 clash so I like the Under, it's 8-0 when the Giants play at the Adelaide Oval at night.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 3-6 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. GWS are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (7th) vs Essendon Bombers (3rd)
Geelong is on the verge of falling out of the top eight after losing six of their last seven matches, looking especially off in their recent loss to Carlton. But they’ve got a great chance to turn things around against Essendon, a team they’ve beaten in their last six meetings by an average of 52 points. Getting Danger off suspension helps a lot too.
Essendon did what they needed to against West Coast after their bye and now have a shot to solidify their top-four spot while breaking a long-standing losing streak against Geelong. The Bombers haven’t beaten the Cats since 2018 and have only won four of their 25 matchups since 2004. But they couldn't get them at a better time, I think.
The Over is now 11-1 in the Cats last 12 and both sides can kick a score.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the MCG. In their last 10 games at the MCG, Essendon hold a 4-5 record.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Cats are 6-1 against the Bombers.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (14th) vs Port Adelaide Power (8th)
St Kilda scored their highest points of the year before their bye but still lost to the in-form Brisbane, pushing them further from the top eight. The Saints need to strike the right balance between defence and attack to make a late run for the finals, but they should feel good about their chances against a Port Adelaide team that's struggling.
Port Adelaide has lost their last three games by an average of 46 points, with the worst loss coming during the 20th anniversary of their only premiership. The Power are on a downward trend but should feel confident playing at a venue where they’ve won nine of their last 10 matches since early 2021.
The Power have a good record against the Saints and at Marvel, they're 9-1 ATS. So I think they bounce back.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Port Adelaide are 9-1 in their last 10 games at the Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 5-0 against the Saints in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (17th) vs Carlton Blues (2nd)
Richmond showed some improvement leading up to their surprise win against Adelaide on the road, but they slipped back into old habits in their loss to an improving Hawthorn. After a week off to recover, the Tigers need to regroup quickly to take on the in-form Blues.
Carlton has secured second place and is being praised as the main challenger to Sydney. However, instead of just enjoying their success, it's time for them to settle some scores. Richmond dominated this matchup for nearly a decade, and although the tables have turned in recent years, the Blues have yet to deliver a decisive blow to their old rivals.
The Tigers are in rebuild mode and the Blues are flying atop the ladder. So I think Carlton get another big win.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 2-8 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Carlton are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 3-2 against the Blues in the last 5.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (16th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (13th)
West Coast looked better after their bye and had chances against Essendon, but ultimately ran out of steam as their opponent pulled away late. The young Eagles have been stronger at home this year, with all three of their wins coming at Optus Stadium, and their last three home losses were close, by 14 points or less.
Hawthorn hopes their momentum hasn’t been disrupted by the bye after winning four in a row and seven of their last nine before the break. There's no reason to think the Hawks' impressive form will end now, especially since they showed progress last year by thrashing the Eagles on their home turf.
The Hawks need to win this for a chance at a top 8 spot and I think they get it done, they're 7-0 ATS and playing great footy.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 4-6 in their last 10 games at the Perth Stadium. Hawthorn are 0-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-2 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
