2024 AFL Round 15 Betting Predictions
Round 15 kicks off with a blockbuster Friday night clash as the Blues take on the Cats with a top 4 spot on the line at the MCG.
Carlton Blues (2nd) vs Geelong Cats (6th)
The Carlton Blues are shaping up as the main contender to Sydney, getting four wins from their last five matches, only losing to the ladder leader before their bye. They can further prove their mettle against the struggling Geelong Cats, who barely won their last game despite being dominated by Michael Voss' side in inside 50s, clearances and contested possessions.
Geelong might have been licking its wounds during the bye after losing five of its last six matches, nearly undoing their strong season start. The Cats are looking to make a statement against the high-flying Blues as they kick off a tough stretch of five matches against other finals contenders.
These two sides met earlier this year and it was a high-scoring 118-105 result to the Cats. The Over is now 10-1 in the Cats last 11 games at the MCG.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Geelong are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 3-2 against the Blues in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (7th) vs Brisbane Lions (13th)
Port Adelaide had a big gap between their best and worst performances exposed with a loss to Greater Western Sydney, dropping them to seventh place when a top-two spot was almost within reach. The Power can bounce back and boost their top-four hopes with a win over the gradually improving Lions, especially since they have a month of matches against teams currently outside the finals positions.
Brisbane has finally evened out their win-loss record for the first time this season after back-to-back wins, including a victory over St Kilda last week. The Lions are showing signs of getting back to their best with just one loss in their last six matches. A win over the Power could put them on the brink of the top eight, with a favourable run of matches ahead.
The Lions are 6-1 against the Power and I just think they're in better form.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 2-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Lions have won 5 games against the Power.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (5th) vs Sydney Swans (1st)
Greater Western Sydney started to show flashes of their early-season form by overpowering Port Adelaide, even though it took a while to finish the job. Facing the top-of-the-table Swans will be tougher, but the Giants can draw confidence from their record, with their last four wins over Sydney coming by an average of just 1.5 points.
Sydney wants to break the habit of falling behind early, as they've trailed at the first change in most games this season despite having their best win-loss record since 1918. When they're at their best, the Swans look unstoppable with a new mix around the ball driving their success. However, they'll be cautious of their neighbours, the Giants, who are eager for an upset that could end Sydney's dream run.
I like the Under in the derby. The Giants are 5-0 against the Under and the Swans have been starting slowly in recent wins.
Stadium Record
GWS are 13-8 at this venue since 2021. Sydney are 1-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Swans are 6-4 against the Giants.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (11th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th)
Melbourne has slipped to the chasing pack outside the top eight after losing four of their last five games before the bye. They've easily handled the Roos recently, with five straight wins by an average of 51 points. But with key players injured and their season on the line, this game is more than just a potential upset.
North Melbourne might have lost heartbreakingly by a single point to Collingwood, but they impressed with a sizzling first half full of goals. Despite blowing a 54-point lead, their emerging midfield is starting to fire, making them a real threat to the undermanned Demons.
North are starting to show some spirit and I think they give the Dees some trouble. The Dees are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games too.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the MCG. North Melbourne are 0-5 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Demons are 6-1 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (4th) vs West Coast Eagles (16th)
Essendon has narrowly beaten West Coast in their last two meetings, winning the most recent game by a goal and the one before that by an even slimmer margin. The Bombers are keen to avoid a third close call turning into an upset loss, especially as they aim to solidify their top-four spot after back-to-back defeats and a bye.
West Coast used their bye to try and regain their early-season form after losing six of their last seven matches. Though they'll be without Harley Reid due to suspension, the Eagles are otherwise nearly at full strength in their midfield and are looking for their first win over the Bombers at Marvel Stadium since 2013.
Usually a close game between these two sides with the last 2 being decided by under a kick so I like the Eagles to cover.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the Docklands. West Coast are 2-7 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (8th) vs Gold Coast Suns (10th)
Fremantle's season has been a bit of a rollercoaster, with a disappointing loss to the Western Bulldogs following a big win over Melbourne and a bye in between. The Dockers are still trying to find the right balance between defence and attack, but a bit of consistency now could help them hold onto their top-eight spot, especially with a favourable draw ahead.
Gold Coast is aiming for their first road win of the season to stay in the hunt for the top eight, having lost all six away games so far. The Suns aren't too worried about playing at Optus Stadium, with wins in their last two visits, but they have yet to beat the Dockers there, having lost twice.
Gold Coast have struggled away from home (0-12 ATS) so I think the Dockers bounce back at home.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 24-17 at this venue since 2021. Gold Coast are 2-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Bombers are 4-1 against the Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
