2024 AFL Round 14 Betting Predictions
The race for the top 8 is heating up in the AFL and this weekend should be another cracker. The action starts on Friday night footy with both the Lions and Saints desperate for the 4 points.
Brisbane Lions (13th) vs St Kilda Saints (14th)
The Lions are starting to show flashes of their old top-four form. They looked really good last week, taking down the Western Bulldogs, but now they need to string together back-to-back wins for the first time since round five if they want to stay in the hunt for the top eight.
St Kilda's had a bit of luck on their side, grabbing a second straight win in a nailbiter against Gold Coast after a comeback victory over West Coast. Despite this, the Saints are still two wins away from the top eight and their poor percentage makes it even tougher. They really can’t afford to slip up, even against the gradually improving Lions.
The Under is 17-2 when the Saints head interstate and I think they'll try and play ugly to get the win.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. St Kilda are 0-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Lions are 6-2 against the Saints.
Best Bet
Western Bulldogs (11th) vs Fremantle Dockers (7th)
The Western Bulldogs are having a real up-and-down season. They had a tough loss at home to Brisbane, just a week after looking solid in a win over Collingwood. Injuries are hitting them hard at both ends of the field, but they still have their key midfield players to keep their finals hopes alive.
Fremantle is coming off a bye after absolutely smashing Melbourne by 92 points. That dominant performance sent a clear message to the competition. The Dockers racked up 22 goals against the Demons, showing that their ball movement and forward setup are finally coming together. They also like playing at Marvel so I think they can bring that form into this game.
Freo are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games and will be fresh off the bye after smashing Melbourne.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Fremantle are 6-4 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Dockers are 3-2 against the Bulldogs in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (17th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (12th)
Richmond has been looking good even in their close losses to Essendon and Geelong lately, but their surprise win on the road against Adelaide was something else. The Tigers can now use that momentum as they head back to the MCG for Dustin Martin's 300th match, which is sure to be an emotional game.
Hawthorn is on a roll with six wins from their last eight matches, turning their season around in a big way. The Hawks are now eyeing a surprise return to the finals, especially if they can take advantage of games against the Tigers and Eagles around their bye.
Richmond should stand up in Dusty's 300th but the Hawks are playing great footy. So I like the chances of the Over, which is 4-0 in this matchup.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 3-7 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Hawthorn are 2-8 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 4-0 (1 draw) against the Hawks in the last 5.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (15th) vs Sydney Swans (1st)
Adelaide's finals hopes are hanging by a thread after losing back-to-back games against Richmond and Hawthorn, teams in a similar spot. The Crows are sitting three wins outside the top eight in 15th place, so they can't afford any more slip-ups. Now, they need to pull off an upset against the top-of-the-ladder Swans, who broke their hearts in a controversial game late last year.
Sydney just brushed aside Geelong, even after giving up a six-goal lead. The Swans' midfield, including new ruckman Brodie Grundy, was crucial in their comeback. With their defence and forwards also in top form, it looks like only complacency against a revenge-seeking Adelaide could stop them from notching their ninth straight win.
Sydney are 9-0 ATS in night games and I think their midfield will be too much for the struggling Crows.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 2-2 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Swans have won 4 games against the Crows.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th) vs Collingwood Magpies (6th)
North Melbourne is finally riding a wave of momentum after snagging a victory last week, their first in over a year. The Roos looked promising as they built a 33-point lead over the Eagles, and it was even more impressive how they bounced back to secure the win after giving up that advantage. Can they beat the Pies? I don't think so but hopefully they show some Shinboner spirit.
Collingwood is steadily building into the season despite having several key players still out, some for a few more weeks. With the lowly Kangaroos up next and a bye to follow, the Pies might consider resting some more of their top players instead of risking them.
The Under is 5-1 in the Pies last 6 games and I don't see North pulling off an upset.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-30 at this venue since 2021. Collingwood are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 5-1 against the Kangaroos since 2018.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (8th) vs Port Adelaide Power (4th)
Greater Western Sydney is clinging to their spot in the top eight by percentage alone after losing five of their last seven matches. The Giants have been plagued by injuries to key players, but that's no excuse for their poor second-half performances, getting outscored by a total of 36 goals compared to their 19 in recent games.
Port Adelaide kept their top-four spot even with a bye last weekend. The Power probably enjoyed the extra prep time for this rematch against the team that knocked them out of the finals last year. They'll be playing at Engie Stadium for only the third time ever, and the first time since 2013, so it's definitely going to be interesting.
The Power are 8-1 ATS interstate after a loss and I think they stand up against the Giants.
Stadium Record
GWS are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Port are 1-1 in their history and haven't played here since 2013.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 4-1 against the Giants in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
