2024 AFL Round Round 12 Betting Predictions
We're midway through the AFL season and the race for the top 8 is heating up. Let's discuss each matchup in Round 12 of the AFL.
Port Adelaide Power (3rd) vs Carlton Blues (8th)
Port Adelaide (3rd) is sitting comfortably in third place after three straight wins and could solidify their top-four spot before their bye. They looked solid against the Roos and their midfield is gearing up for an exciting clash with the Blues.
Carlton jumped back into the top eight with a crucial win over Gold Coast and is now up against a team they beat by 50 points late last season. Though the Blues haven't beaten the Power in their four previous games at Adelaide Oval, they did secure their first win at the venue in eight tries when they faced the Dockers earlier this year during Gather Round.
Port are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 at the Adelaide Oval so I like the Blues to cover in a close game.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Carlton are 1-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Power are 3-2 against the Blues in the last 5.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (7th) vs Western Bulldogs (11th)
Collingwood couldn't quite hold off Fremantle in their second draw of the season, getting hit hard by injuries again. The Magpies are hanging in the top eight despite their personnel issues, but with their forward line getting thinner, they might hit a tipping point soon.
The Western Bulldogs put up a brave fight against ladder-leader Sydney despite missing several key players. They can't make excuses this time against a Magpies team with an even longer injury list, especially with tough matches against last year's Grand Finalist Brisbane and then Fremantle coming up.
The Under is 7-0 in this matchup and I like it on Friday night too. The Pies are coming back from Perth and the Dogs are missing Naughton up forward.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. The Bulldogs are 2-3 in their last 5 games at the Docklands.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Magpies hold a 5-2 record against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (14th) vs Adelaide Crows (12th)
Hawthorn has turned things around, winning four of its last six games and shaking off their early season struggles. With a win this week, the Hawks could jump past Adelaide into 12th spot. They've only won twice in 13 games at the MCG since last season, but they're facing a team with an even worse record at the venue.
Adelaide is still smarting from a close loss to Collingwood at the MCG two weeks ago, marking their ninth straight defeat at the ground since the 2017 Grand Final. However, the Crows are coming in strong after a big win over the Eagles last week.
The Under is usually a good bet at the MCG as it's 7-2 in the last 9 games and the Crows don't have a great record at the venue.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 2-8 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Adelaide are 0-5 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Hawks hold a 3-2 record against the Crows.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (16th) vs St Kilda Saints (15th)
West Coast is looking to bounce back after a 99-point thrashing against Adelaide as they return home, where they've found some good form. The Eagles have won three of their last four home games, with their only loss being a close one to the Bombers. Their away record might be a worry, but they're solid on their own turf.
St Kilda is almost playing for pride now after three straight losses, putting them four wins out of the top eight before the season's halfway mark. If they lose to the Eagles, they could drop to 16th place, which is a far cry from the team that made the finals last year.
When the Saints are interstate, the Under is 16-2 and these two sides aren't in the best form.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. St Kilda are 3-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Saints are 3-2 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (6th) vs Richmond Tigers (17th)
Geelong has hit a rough patch with four straight losses, putting them at risk of dropping out of the top eight after a hot 7-0 start. Three of those losses were close, by eight points or less, but two were at their home ground, which isn’t the fortress it used to be.
Richmond (17th) is heading to GMHBA Stadium for the first time since 2017, looking for their first win there in 18 years. The Tigers are struggling with an injury crisis that’s derailed their season, so it won't be easy, even against a Cats team that's currently down on their luck.
Should be high scoring as the Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the Kardinia Park. Richmond has lost their last 5 since 2007.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Tigers are 6-4 against the Cats.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (4th) vs Fremantle Dockers (9th)
Melbourne cruised past St Kilda to jump back into the top four, but now they have a tough run ahead with a trip to Alice Springs and then the King's Birthday clash against Collingwood. The Demons will be pleased to have hit 100 points for just the second time this season, thanks to a good spread of goalkickers.
Fremantle showed they can compete with the best, coming within a straight kick of beating the reigning premiers in the final moments. The Dockers might have hoped for more against an injury-hit Collingwood, but now they have a chance to climb back into the top eight with a win against the Demons before their mid-season bye.
Freo has a good away record having covered in 7 of their last 8 and should be confident after a draw against the Pies.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 1-1 at this venue since 2021. Freo are 1-3 in their history.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Demons hold a 4-3 record.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (10th) vs Essendon Bombers (2nd)
Gold Coast hasn't won on the road yet, but they're back at home for the first time since round seven, where they've been perfect this year. They need to find consistency, but a win over the Bombers, their first since 2016, could boost their finals hopes, especially with the struggling Saints up next.
Essendon has taken advantage of a favourable schedule, facing the three bottom teams in the past four weeks, and also securing an impressive win over Greater Western Sydney. Now, the Bombers face a tougher stretch against top-eight contenders, starting with the Suns, who are strong at home, and then the Blues before their bye.
The Suns are 9-0 ATS at home after a loss and I think they take down the Bombers.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Essendon are 1-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Bombers are 5-0 (1 draw) against the Suns.
Best Bet
