2024 AFL Round 11 Betting Predictions
Round 11 starts on Thursday night with the Swans flying atop the ladder and they'll look for a 10-1 start when they face the improving Doggies.
Western Bulldogs (11th) vs Sydney Swans (1st)
The Bulldogs have really turned things around lately with two wins in a row, including a solid thrashing against the Giants last weekend. But now they've got to face the scorching Swans after just a five-day break. It's going to be a tough test for them, especially with more challenging games coming up before their bye week.
On the other hand, Sydney is on fire, sitting at the top of the ladder. They could make it seven wins in a row and hit a 10-1 record for the first time since 1936 if they beat the Bulldogs. Their impressive streak has given them some breathing room at the top and they can keep that momentum going with a win before they take a break on their bye week.
Should be a tough one for the Dogs coming off a short break. Take the Swannies to win.
Stadium Record
The Bulldogs are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 3-2 against the Bulldogs in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (9th) vs Collingwood Magpies (5th)
Freo's been on a roll lately, winning three out of their last four matches and sitting just outside the top four by a hair. A win at their home turf against the reigning champs could really solidify their spot and set them up nicely for their next match against the Demons in Darwin, followed by a bye.
Meanwhile, Collingwood's been playing well now with three wins in a row, pushing them up to fifth place. Despite some worries about injuries, they're still a force to be reckoned with. Plus, they've got a pretty good track record at this venue, winning three out of their last four visits since 2020.
In the last six night matches between Fremantle and Collingwood, the total match points line has been UNDER every time.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Collingwood are 2-1 at the Perth Stadium since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 8, the Magpies are 5-3 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th) vs Port Adelaide Power (4th)
North Melbourne (18th) used to be a real force in Hobart, but lately, they've struggled, only managing two wins in their last 13 visits. Despite their low ranking, they showed some good signs in their last game against the Bombers, except for a short 15-minute lapse. They'll be looking to improve on their ball movement in this game, especially with another bottom-four team, West Coast, up next after a bye.
Port Adelaide managed to snatch a win in a nail-biter against Hawthorn, but they weren't exactly dominating until the final surge in the last term. They'll see this match against the Roos as a chance to fine-tune their game. They've got a pretty impressive record against North Melbourne, winning nine out of their last ten meetings. After this, they've got a short break before facing the Blues, followed by a bye.
North Melbourne's last nine matches at Blundstone Arena have all gone OVER the total match points line.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 1-9 in their last 10 games at this venue. Port Adelaide are 2-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 7, the Power are 6-1 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (10th) vs Gold Coast Suns (8th)
Carlton kicked off strong against Sydney, but things quickly changed as the ladder-leaders took control and pulled ahead. With three losses in their last four games, the Blues have slipped out of the top eight. However, they have a chance to snag some crucial points against fellow finals contenders like the Suns, especially with tough matches against the Power and Bombers looming before their bye.
Gold Coast's win against Geelong in Darwin was impressive, propelling them into the top eight. However, their road games haven't been as successful, losing all four matches away from home. The Suns need to bridge the gap between their best and worst performances if they want to maintain their position in the top eight.
Six out of Carlton's last seven matches at Marvel Stadium have gone OVER the total match points line.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 2-3 in their last 5 games at the Docklands.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 3-2 against the Suns in the last 5.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (3rd) vs GWS Giants (6th)
Geelong is licking its wounds after a humbling defeat to Gold Coast in Darwin, marking a tough stretch for Chris Scott's squad with three consecutive losses. However, returning home presents an opportunity for the Cats to regroup and bounce back, aiming to regain their winning form in successive home matches.
Greater Western Sydney's strong start to the season has faltered recently, with four losses in their last five games after an impressive five-game winning streak. Despite their recent struggles, the Giants have historically performed well on the road, particularly against Geelong, having won their last three meetings at the Cats' home ground. With a bye on the horizon, GWS will be looking to leave it all on the field and secure a much-needed win.
GWS has won each of its last three matches against Geelong at the Cattery and could do it again based on the Cats defensive woes at the moment.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. GWS are 2-0 at the Kardinia Park since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Giants have won 3 games against the Cats.
Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney +12.5 = $1.90
Richmond Tigers (17th) vs Essendon Bombers (2nd)
Richmond is dealing with a mounting injury crisis that's really putting a damper on their ability to compete. They're up against their old rivals Essendon, and while they might be struggling, they'll need to find a way to at least keep the game close. Their scoring troubles aren't helping matters either, with their lowest points average in the first 10 matches of a season since 1964.
Essendon, on the other hand, has quietly climbed up to second place after a solid win over North Melbourne. Now, they're looking to solidify their top-four position by taking on struggling Richmond. Last year, they broke a 13-game losing streak against the Tigers, so they're probably feeling pretty confident going into this match. But this time around, they might not just be aiming for the win; they could be looking to boost their percentage too.
Seven of Essendon's last eight matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Essendon are 6-14 (1 draw) at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 8, the Tigers hold a 7-1 record.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (15th) vs Brisbane Lions (12th)
Hawthorn might still be licking their wounds from a tough loss to Port last week, but there were definitely some bright spots, especially in the three quarters where they dominated and built up a solid lead. Despite the setback, they've been showing some real improvement lately, with three wins in their last five games. Plus, they've got a good track record against the Lions, having beaten them in their last four meetings.
As for Brisbane, they're aiming to balance out their win-loss record for the season after starting with three losses. They've been picking up steam lately though, so they're feeling confident heading into this match. Playing at this venue doesn't faze them much either, with eight wins from their last nine visits. And with a bye coming up after this game, they'll have a chance to rest up and recharge for the next round.
Hawthorn has covered the line in each of its last four matches against Brisbane and they're stepping against the good sides at the moment.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at the Docklands.
Head to Head Record
In the last 8 meetings, the head-to-head is squared at 4-4.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (7th) vs St Kilda Saints (14th)
The Dees have been dealing with ups and downs lately, struggling with consistency both within games and across them. Despite being early contenders for the flag, they've slipped to just inside the top eight, mainly due to percentage. But after a couple of tough losses, they're eager to bounce back against St Kilda, a team they've had the measure of in their recent matchups.
Meanwhile, the Saints have been having a rough patch, managing only one win in their last six games, and that was against the struggling North Melbourne. Their season's taken a hit, and they're in danger of slipping further from the top eight. Scoring's been a big issue for them, ranking 15th in the league. Now they face the tough task of taking on the stingy Demons defence.
Melbourne has won each of its last four matches against St Kilda and should be desperate to bounce back after a shock loss.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the MCG. St Kilda are 5-3 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 8, the Demons hold a 5-3 record.
Best Bet
Adelaide Crows (13th) vs West Coast Eagles (16th)
Adelaide has been on the rise lately, putting themselves back in contention for the finals with a string of better performances. Despite a heartbreaking loss to Collingwood, they've shown improvement. Now, with three games against bottom-four teams, they have a chance to make a move up the ladder, starting with a clash against West Coast, followed by matches against Hawthorn and Richmond.
Meanwhile, West Coast has been surprising some with their recent form, grabbing three wins and narrowly losing one in their last four home matches. However, they've struggled to replicate that success away from home. Their recent record at Adelaide Oval hasn't been great either, with six heavy defeats since 2021. They'll need to turn things around on the road if they want to come away with a win against Adelaide.
The underdog has covered the line in each of the last seven matches at the Adelaide Oval and I like the Eagles form at the moment.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 1-3 (1 draw) in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval. West Coast are 1-5 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Crows hold a 4-1 record against the Eagles.
Best Bet
