2024 AFL Round 10 Betting Predictions
Sir Doug Nicholls Round kicks off up in the Northern Territory as the Suns look to get into the top eight with a win over the Cats on Thursday night footy.
Gold Coast Suns (10th) vs Geelong Cats (2nd)
Gold Coast (5-4) kept their winning streak at home alive by thrashing North Melbourne in Darwin last week. They've now won five in a row at TIO Stadium, but they’ll face a tougher challenge trying to beat the Cats, who are looking to get back on track after two close losses.
Geelong (7-2) has slipped a bit in the top-four race after two straight losses, including an unusual defeat at home to Yartapuulti. They got off to a rough start, giving up 50 points in the first quarter – the most they’ve allowed in the opening term at GMHBA Stadium since 1983. They'll need to avoid a repeat of that in the typically slippery conditions in Darwin.
Should be a high-scoring affair up in the NT. The Over is 3-0 in the Suns last 3 games and the Cats leaked 100 pts at home last week.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 5-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 4-1 against the Suns in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (1st) vs Carlton Blues (7th)
Sydney (1st) has been on a roll, winning five matches in a row and sitting comfortably at the top of the ladder. They’ve been really impressive against other top-four teams like the Giants, Pies, and Demons. Beating the Blues would solidify their status as the team to beat this season.
Carlton managed to fend off a late surge from the Dees last week, similar to how they held off Sydney in last year's elimination final. That win was Carlton's first finals victory since 2013. However, they’ll need to overcome their poor record at the SCG, where they’ve only won twice in 18 games since 1993.
The Swannies are flying at the moment and Carlton doesn't have a great record at the SCG. So I'll back the Swans to make it another win.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at the SCG. Carlton are 0-3 at the SCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Blues have won 3 games against the Swans.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (8th) vs Adelaide Crows (12th)
Collingwood got a big win against the Eagles last week, moving into the top eight for the first time this season. But they’re dealing with some injuries and will hope to get through the game against the Crows without any more setbacks while continuing to build on their strong form.
Adelaide doesn’t have much room for mistakes after losing their first four games of the season and might regret Jordan Dawson’s last-second miss that resulted in a draw with Brisbane. The Crows know all too well the cost of inaccurate kicking after close losses to the Pies last year, but those games showed they can hang with the best.
Pies should be tough to beat on their home deck. They've won their last 5 of 6 by 1-39 against the Crows and Adelaide doesn't have the best record at the 'G.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 6-3 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at this venue. Adelaide are 0-4 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Magpies are 8-0 against the Crows.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (5th) vs Western Bulldogs (11th)
GWS is heading back home for the first time since round one, but they’re not feeling too great after losing three of their last four games. They did break a four-game losing streak against their old rivals in an exciting match last year, but right now, they’re more worried about their recent form as the ‘Orange tsunami’ seems to be drying up.
The Western Bulldogs got back on track with a big win over an injury-hit Richmond, ending a rough patch of four losses in five games. They now need to keep that momentum going against a more stable team. The Bulldogs will be motivated to hurt their rivals' finals chances while boosting their own before facing tough games against the Swans, Pies, and Lions.
Both sides can kick over 100 pts on their day so I like the Over at Giants Stadium. It's 4-0 at this venue when the Giants are here.
Stadium Record
GWS are 6-4 in their last 10 games at GIANTS Stadium. The Bulldogs are 1-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Giants in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
St Kilda Saints (14th) vs Fremantle Dockers (9th)
St Kilda (3-6) is in a tough spot after losing four of their last five games, including a surprising defeat to Hawthorn last week. Their only win in that stretch was against the Kangaroos, where they managed to score over 80 points for the first and only time this season. They've struggled to find a good rhythm in attack otherwise.
Freo had a lot on their minds last week after the passing of former player Cam McCarthy, but they still put up a strong fight against Sydney. Their inaccurate kicking cost them, ending with 4.15, but they're hoping to be sharper at a venue where they've done well, with four wins and a draw in eight matches since the start of 2022.
The Saints have been poor this season and I think the Dockers can upset them. Freo has covered in 6 of their last 7 away games.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Docklands. Fremantle are 5-4 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 7, the Dockers are 4-3 against the Saints.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (13th) vs Richmond Tigers (17th)
Brisbane almost pulled off an impressive win on the road last week but ended up drawing with Kuwarna. The injury-hit Lions are still waiting for some key players to return, but they’ll be aiming to beat the struggling Tigers and stay in touch with the top eight, especially with games against the Hawks, Bulldogs, and Saints coming up.
Richmond is deep in an injury crisis, making it hard to gauge their performance. The Tigers have lost five in a row, with the losses getting bigger each week, but they have a chance for a closer game against the also injury-hit Lions.
It's rebuild season for the Tigers so I don't see them matching the Lions who need a big win at home. Richmond has also their last 6 away games.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Richmond are 0-3 at the Gabba since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 6-4 against the Lions since 2018.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (3rd) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (18th)
Essendon made a big move up to third on the ladder with a win over Greater Western Sydney, even though their percentage is only 98.3. The Bombers now have a great chance to boost that percentage against a struggling North Melbourne team that they’ve beaten in their last 10 meetings since 2017.
North Melbourne (18th) is still searching for their first win of the season as the heavy losses keep piling up. The Roos gave the Bombers a scare late last season, but for now, they might focus on just winning a quarter, something they haven’t done in their last two games, before trying to take on their old rivals again.
The Bombers are in the top 4 and this could be a nice percentage booster against the lowly Roos. North are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games and I don't see that changing on Sunday.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. North Melbourne are 3-29 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Bombers hold a 10-0 record.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (6th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (15th)
Port (6-3) finally broke their GMHBA Stadium curse with a win over Geelong, but they can’t afford to relax against the increasingly dangerous Hawthorn. The Power have been alternating between wins and losses recently, but they have a good chance to solidify their top-eight position against the Hawks, especially with the Kangaroos up next.
Hawthorn (3-6) has turned things around with three wins from their last four games but have yet to beat a top-eight team like Port. The Hawks have improved thanks to increased pressure and intensity, and they’ve been effective in the forward half even without a standout tall target.
Huge win for the Power over the Cats in Geelong last week but the Hawks are playing good footy now. So I think they keep it within 5-6 goals to cover.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn are 1-2 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 6 meetings, the head to head is squared at 3-3.
Best Bet
West Coast Eagles (16th) vs Melbourne Demons (4th)
West Coast has been more competitive at home lately, with two wins and a close loss to the Bombers in their last three home games. However, they were brought back down to earth with a heavy defeat against the Pies last week, scoring only five goals and showing there's still a big gap between their best and worst performances.
Melbourne gave Carlton too much of a head start last week, being held scoreless in the first term for the first time since 2008. The Demons can solidify their spot in the top four by bouncing back against the Eagles, especially at a venue where they've won six in a row, including the 2021 Grand Final.
The Dees love playing in Perth but I also like the Under, it's 8-1 in the Demons last 9 away games.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. Melbourne are 6-0 at Perth Stadium since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Demons are 3-2 against the Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
