2024 AFL Round 1 Betting Predictions
Join Bluey as we make our betting predictions for the highly anticipated matchups of the 2024 AFL Round 1. It kicks off at the 'G with the traditional Blues v Tigers matchup on Thursday night.
Carlton Blues (4th) vs Richmond Tigers (8th)
Carlton footy fans are on cloud nine after witnessing their team pull off a remarkable comeback against Brisbane, flipping a daunting 46-point deficit on its head to clinch a nail-biting victory at the Gabba. With adrenaline still pumping and spirits soaring, the Blues are now gearing up to take on the Tigers, armed with the momentum from their sensational win. Eager to rewrite the history books, Carlton sets its sights on snatching just their second victory in the last 12 traditional round one showdown against their arch rivals.
Richmond's season kicked off with a bit of a stumble under the guidance of their new coach, Adem Yze. While they showed improvement in the second half against Gold Coast, the Tigers know they'll need to step up their game, especially in the midfield, if they want to go toe-to-toe with Carlton. They were completely outclassed by the likes of Rowell in the clearances. They'll also be hoping that Dusty Martin can play after missing the trip to the GC.
In recent games at the MCG, Carlton has consistently clinched victories, with their last four matches ending with a margin of 1-39 points, extending to six consecutive wins at the iconic stadium.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Richmond are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Tigers are 6-1 against the Blues.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (7th) vs Sydney Swans (3rd)
Collingwood's opening defeat to GWS raises some concerns about their ability to defend their title. But they should be eager to dispel any notions of a premiership hangover at their fortress as the Magpies are determined to bounce back swiftly. With their defence showing signs of weakness after conceding 18 goals, the return of Jeremy Howe could provide the much-needed stability to shore up their backline.
Sydney's nail-biting victory over Melbourne showcased their tenacity and potential as a dominant force in 2024. While they struggled to secure the win until a last-quarter surge, their resilience and determination hint that the Swans will be a force. Facing off against the reigning premier in their next match poses a formidable challenge, especially after losing their last 2 at the MCG since the 2023 Grand Final disaster.
In most recent night matchups between Collingwood and Sydney, ten out of the last eleven games have seen fewer total match points than expected.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Sydney are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Swans are 4-3 against the Magpies since 2018.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (10th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (13th)
Essendon is gearing up for an intense showdown against long-standing rivals Hawthorn, marking the third encounter in four seasons between the two fierce competitors. As anticipation builds for the clash, there's a sense of uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes for both teams. The Bombers have made significant moves to fortify their squad, adding key players like Ben McKay, Todd Goldstein, Jade Gresham, and Xavier Duursma to their lineup. So we'll have to wait and see.
Hawthorn has been hit hard by a string of injuries during the pre-season, with star players like Will Day, last year's club champion, facing an uncertain start to the season. Despite these setbacks, the Hawks have taken steps to bolster their forward line, securing talents like Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan, and Mabior Chol. Additionally, the return of seasoned veteran Jack Gunston adds depth and experience to their forward line.
In five out of Essendon's last six games against Hawthorn, they've managed to beat the line.
Stadium Record
Essendon are 5-14 at this venue since 2021. Hawthorn are 7-17 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Bombers are 4-3 against the Hawks.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (2nd) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (14th)
Greater Western Sydney has put themselves into the limelight, exceeding all pre-season expectations with a commanding performance against reigning champions Collingwood. Now, they set their sights on an encounter with the underdog North Melbourne. The Giants' formidable firepower, led by standout performances from Callum Brown, Jesse Hogan, and Brent Daniels, overwhelmed Collingwood with a barrage of goals. So that's the key against the Roos backline, which is known to struggle.
North Melbourne braces for a formidable test as they kick off their season against the GWS Giants, presenting a daunting challenge. But with a squad that has trended towards youth following their 17th-placed finish last year, the Roos are set to showcase their talent this year. Despite the uphill battle, there's excitement surrounding the team, fueled by the promise of their youthful squad.
In the last 33 games at Giants Stadium, GWS has seen the total match points line go OVER in 25 of them.
Stadium Record
GWS are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. North are 3-0 in their history.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 3-1 (1 draw) against the Kangaroos in the last 5.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (12th) vs St Kilda Saints (16th)
Geelong is poised for a resurgence following a disappointing season that saw them become the third consecutive reigning premier to miss out on finals contention the following year. Hindered by key retirements, a string of injuries and efforts to revitalise their midfield, the Cats faced considerable challenges in 2023. However, under the guidance of master coach Chris Scott, there's optimism for a swift turnaround.
Coach Ross Lyon wasted no time in revitalising St Kilda, propelling them back into finals contention in his first season back at the helm. Despite their progress, questions still linger about whether they possess the requisite star power to mount a sustained challenge. Nevertheless, the Saints have laid the groundwork for continued success after 2023 and will look to continue the momentum into 2024.
Geelong hasn't covered the line in its past five matches so I like the Saints to potentially pull off an upset.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 20-6 at this venue since 2021. Since 2021, St Kilda have a 0-2 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 8 meetings, the Cats hold a 6-2 record against the Saints.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (1st) vs Adelaide Crows (9th)
Gold Coast ignited their season with a scorching first-half display against Richmond, signalling their potential with an explosive start under near coach Damien Hardwick. Despite the promising beginning, they faltered in the second half, so that will be a key focus against the Crows. However, their upcoming match against a formidable opponent offers a prime opportunity to gauge their true turnaround.
Adelaide enters the fray amidst high expectations, buoyed by their gradual ascent up the ladder in recent years. Despite this progress, the elusive finals berth has remained just out of reach since 2017, leaving the team hungry for success. Despite the absence of key player Riley Thilthorpe due to injury, the Crows boast a well-rounded lineup, with internal growth driving their improvement.
Gold Coast's home ground clashes against Adelaide have been notably high-scoring, with nine out of their last 10 meetings going over the total match points line.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Adelaide are 1-5 since 2020.
Head to Head Record
The Crows are 5-3 against the Suns since 2018.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (6th) vs Western Bulldogs (18th)
The Dees should be determined to avoid a troubling 0-2 start after a lacklustre showing in their Round 0 clash against Sydney. Despite an offseason fraught with challenges, the Demons remain under scrutiny, particularly concerning their forward line's cohesion. With only five goalkickers in their previous match, the reliance on Bayley Fritsch for the majority of their goals raises concerns.
As the Western Bulldogs kick off their season, they do so with a formidable lineup, nearly at full strength despite the absence of Bailey Smith. With promising additions like draftee Ryley Sanders and experienced midfielder James Harmes, the Bulldogs aim to reignite their premiership ambitions after a disappointing 2023.
Melbourne are 6-0 against the Under and the Dogs have lost their last 3 against them. So I like the chances of a low-scoring battle at the MCG.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the MCG. The Bulldogs are 3-3 at the MCG since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Demons hold a 3-2 record against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (15th) vs West Coast Eagles (17th)
Port Adelaide's offseason moves signal a determination to shore up weaknesses and make a statement in the upcoming season. With additions like Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Esava Ratugolea bolstering the defensive line, and the dynamic presence of Ivan Soldo or Jordon Sweet in the ruck, the Power aims to fortify their position among the AFL's elite. After falling short in the finals last year, Port Adelaide is poised to assert its dominance once again, armed with a hunger for success.
As the West Coast Eagles undergo a significant rebuilding phase, anticipation builds with each departure of club veterans and the arrival of promising talent like No.1 draft pick Harley Reid. The club's squad boasts a blend of experience and youthful talent, setting the stage for a potentially revitalised performance this season. However, concerns loom over injury woes, highlighting the need for depth all over the park.
In each of Port Adelaide's last 10 home matches against West Coast, the total match points have consistently fallen under the total, suggesting a trend that we can follow in Round 1.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. West Coast are 1-4 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the head to head is tied at 3-3.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (11th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th)
Fremantle enters the new season under intense scrutiny following a rollercoaster ride from a promising finals campaign to a disappointing 14th-place finish last year. Despite the setbacks, anticipation runs high as the Dockers gear up for a fresh start. With an emphasis on faster ball movement, they aim to inject excitement into their gameplay while creating more scoring opportunities for their forwards. However, challenges lie ahead, especially with key player Sean Darcy sidelined, casting doubt on their dominance around stoppages.
Brisbane faces a pivotal moment after losing a 46-point lead to Carlton in a heart-wrenching defeat. Determined to shake off this setback, the Lions aim to rebound swiftly and avoid a winless start to the season. Memories of last year's slow start loom large, but Brisbane is keen to turn the tide before facing Grand Final rivals Collingwood following the bye week. With redemption on their minds, the Lions look to regroup for a spirited comeback on Sunday.
Brisbane's recent track record sees a struggle to cover, with only three out of their last 12 matches seeing them cover the line successfully.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Perth Stadium. Brisbane are 2-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Lions are 6-2 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
