2024 AFL Preliminary Finals Betting Predictions
The race for a spot in the AFL Grand Final is the focus this week. It starts with the Swans hosting the Power at the SCG on Friday night footy. Meanwhile, the Lions will look to continue their stunning finals run against the rested Cats.
Sydney Swans (1st) vs Port Adelaide Power (2nd)
The Swans enjoyed a week off after a huge comeback against the Giants at the SCG in week 1 of the finals. They're back at the SCG this week, looking to advanced into the Grand Final and make up for the 2022 shocker. But, they'll need to overturn a poor record against the Power and a 112 point loss in the last clash will be on their minds. Isaac Heeney proved instrumental in the qualifying final against Greater Western Sydney, where he spent 90% of his time in the midfield, gathering 30 disposals and seven clearances. His impact in the midfield could be decisive once again.
Slow starts have been a challenge for the Swans, who rank 15th in points differential during the opening quarters. However, they excel in the second and third quarters, leading the league in points differential for these periods. Managing to keep their composure early could help them build a winning lead. The Swans are currently 16th in forward-half stoppages but stand second in the AFL for points scored from this area, averaging 19 points per game. With an average of 38 points from total clearances, maintaining this efficiency will be crucial.
Sydney’s success as the No. 1 scoring team this season, with an average of 98 points per game, is largely due to their ability to convert turnovers into scores. They average 56 points from turnovers and will need to exploit this against a Power team known for its intense pressure. The Power excel at converting rebound 50s into inside 50s, ranking in the top four. To counter this, the Swans must continue their strong defensive performance, where they currently top the league in preventing opposition forward entries from rebound 50s.
The Power come off a thrilling win over the Hawks at the Adelaide Oval last week and they're now just one win away from the big dance. They have a great record against Sydney, winning the last 8 meetings. It's also hard to forget the last meeting back in Round 21 when the Power thrashed the listless Swans 148-36. Jordon Sweet's standout performance against Hawthorn’s Lloyd Meek highlights the Power’s strength in ruck contests. Port Adelaide has been consistently strong in points from clearances and stoppage metrics, including hitouts to advantage. Ensuring dominance over Brodie Grundy will be a key focus. Since round 16, Port Adelaide ranks 22nd for points conceded but managed to limit the league’s top-scoring team to just 72 points last week.
While pressure up the ground is essential, the continued strong performances from key defenders like Lachie Jones, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Miles Bergman, Logan Evans, and Aliir Aliir will be crucial. Pressure has been key to Port Adelaide's success and is crucial for their performance in the preliminary final. They delivered their fifth-best pressure rating of the season in the semi-final against Hawthorn, especially in a dominant fourth quarter. This high pressure not only created scoring chances but also shielded their young defense. The Swans are adept at handling pressure, so the Power will need to sustain their intensity. In their last encounter, Port Adelaide outmuscled their opponents in contested possessions by 27, contributing to a commanding 112-point win.
With both midfields packed with talent, the Power will rely on stars like Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, and Jason Horne-Francis to win the contested ball and gain the upper hand. Also, Port Adelaide ranks third in converting rebound 50s into inside 50s, though some key players crucial to this are unavailable. Jase Burgoyne, who shifted to half-back, played a pivotal role against Hawthorn. A balanced approach combining their aggressive corridor movement with a more measured strategy might be necessary.
This should be an interesting final. The Power have an excellent record against Sydney and the Swans are 0-4 ATS in finals at home. So, I like the Power to cover and potentially get another win over the Swans.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the SCG. Port Adelaide are 1-0 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 7-0 against the Swans.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (3rd) vs Brisbane Lions (5th)
The Cats smashed the Power by 84 pts in Adelaide and got to put up their feet last week. They're now at the MCG on Saturday night and have a good record against the Lions in finals. They beat them by 71 points in the last finals meeting in 2022 and also got the better of them in 2020 at the Gabba by 40 pts. Max Holmes was a game-changer against the Power, racking up 668 metres gained. His impact was made possible by the Cats' effective work inside the contest. If they can control the midfield again and create opportunities for Holmes, they’ll be better positioned to keep the ball in their forward half.
In the Cats forward line, Tyson Stengle, Shaun Mannagh, and Gryan Miers thrived with ample space in the qualifying final, combining for 10 goals against the Power. They excel when given room to maneuver and the opportunity to get behind their opponents, evident from the six goals they scored from close range. The Cats are experts at maintaining forward pressure, ranking sixth for time spent in the forward half. They effectively exploited this in their recent match against the Power, converting forward-50 entries into 45 points, the second-highest ever recorded in a final. Also, no team has managed a positive groundball differential in their forward 50 this season, making the Cats’ +2 against Brisbane in round six a notable achievement.
Their small forwards and key forward, adept at handling groundballs, will be crucial in maintaining this edge. The Cats boast an impressive September record, with their recent form making them a formidable opponent. Their qualifying final win against Port marked their eighth September victory by more than 65 points since 2007, a feat unmatched by any other team. Their diverse scoring options will be a significant challenge for any opponent.
The Lions staged a massive comeback last week against the Giants to get into the preliminary finals. Joe Daniher was the hero with a few late goals. Brisbane's challenge this week will be winning against Geelong in a final in Melbourne for the first time since 2004. Goal-kicking has been a persistent challenge for the Lions this season. However, their ability to come back against Greater Western Sydney highlights their potential. They need to repeat this performance, as they managed only four goals from 17 shots in their last game against the Cats.
The Lions are top of the league for uncontested marks and have a perfect record this season when taking 102 or more marks. Dayne Zorko and Hugh McCluggage are key contributors in uncontested possessions, both ranking in the top 10 across the AFL. Brisbane leads the AFL in points from turnover differential and excels at defending their own turnovers. To advance to the Grand Final, they must capitalize on the Cats’ mistakes by converting turnovers into scoring opportunities. While the Lions excel at controlling the ball, they also need to secure it first.
They lead the AFL in contested possession differential and are second for groundball and clearances. Dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale is a standout performer, ranking third in the league with 13.6 contested possessions per game. Both Brisbane and Geelong excel in gaining territory, with the Lions ranking second for inside 50 differential and time in their forward half this season. In their previous encounter, Geelong edged out Brisbane by six inside 50s, marking one of the Lions' toughest games of the year.
I think Geelong will be tough to beat at the MCG this Saturday. They have the benefit of the week off and they love playing Brisbane. In the last 16 meetings, the Cats are 14-2 ATS.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 6-4 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Brisbane are 1-4 in their last 5 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Cats hold a 7-3 record against the Lions.
Best Bet
