2024 AFL Grand Final Betting Predictions
The last Saturday in September is almost here and we have a massive State of Origin battle in the AFL Grand Final. The Swans head to the MCG, looking to exercise some revenge on the big stage after a woeful display in the 2022 decider against the Cats. The Lions also suffered defeat in last year's decider and will be looking to make amends. Sydney are aiming for their first Premiership since 2012 and Brisbane haven't won since 2004, during their 3-year dominance back in the day. Here is my preview of the big game, along with a same game multi, anytime goalscorer value bets and who could win the norm smith.
Sydney Swans Preview
The Swannies overcame the Power for the first time since 2016 and secured their place in the 2024 AFL Grand Final with a 95-59 victory at the SCG. Isaac Heeney continued his impressive season with 2 goals, 6 tackles and 24 touches. He'll be up there in the Norm Smith voting if Sydney wins. Gulden was good with 27 disposals and up forward, Papley and Amartey both kicked 3 goals. Amartey could be a massive x-factor in this game, he showed that when he kicked 9 goals against the Crows and Sydney will likely need him to kick a bag. Brodie Grundy is another story for the Swans, in his 3rd club he gets another chance at a flag. He should enjoy a great matchup against Darcy Fort.
This is John Longmire's 5th Grand Final as coach and his record hasn't been great. They've lost in 2022, 2016 and 2014. So he'll be eager to overturn that record and claim the Swans first flag since 2012 against the Hawks. He will have to make a massive call on Callum Mills as he missed the win over the Power with a hamstring. If he passes a fitness test, he'll definitely play and someone like Robbie Fox (sub last game) could be very unlucky. Logan McDonald also hurt his ankle but should be right to play.
Sydney comes into the GF on a 5 game-winning streak but have struggled against the Lions lately. In the only meeting of the season, they were down 31-9 at quarter time and came back in the 2nd/3rd quarter but Brisbane got them in the end, 79-77. Heeney was quiet in that clash but watch out for him in the Grand Final because he seems to be back to his best after a mid-season slump. He has kicked 2+ goals in his last 3 games, 2 finals. Tom Papley is another important factor up forward and he has kicked 2 or more goals in the Swans last 4 finals when they're the favourite. Gulden seems to love the space at the MCG and he has 25+ disposals in 11 straight games when the Swans are interstate.
Brisbane Lions Preview
The Lions fairytale finals campaign continued in a massive preliminary final upset over the Cats at this venue last Saturday night. They were down 55-36 at half-time but came out firing in the second half to outscore the Cats 59-30. Zorko continued his form across halfback with 32 touches. He has recorded 25+ disposals in 8 of Brisbane's last 9. Neale was a clearance beast, finishing with 12 clearances and he loves playing in Victoria (29+ touches in 4 straight in Vic). Callum Ah Chee was the hero up forward, kicking 3 goals and Rayner/Cameron also kicked 2. Rayner has now kicked 1 or more goals in the Lions last 3 games.
Brisbane haven't had the best record at the MCG in the last 10 years but they have managed to play a bit at the home of footy lately. They beat the Cats last week and also upset the Dees back in Round 6. But last year's Grand Final loss will still bring back memories of how close they were, just 4 points in it against the Pies. However, they've been a good underdog lately, covering the line in their last 9 games when they're not favoured to win.
Injuries will be something to monitor for the Lions. Ruckman Oscar McInerney is out with a shoulder injury and that will see Darcy Fort come into the side. He hasn't played since Round 8 so it will be a massive task against Grundy in the ruck and the clearance battle.
I think this will be a close Grand Final as both sides don't have great records at the MCG. They met at the Gabba in Round 19 and the Lions held on for a 2 pt victory. But I would say, the Swans weren't in the best form back then. So they deserve favouritism. We have to take into account that the Lions have played 3 finals and the Swans had a rest after the first week of the finals as well. However, I still think picking a head to head winner is a tough bet so I like the look of the Over. The last 4 Grand Finals have gone over and the Lions usually give up points, such as 85 and 100 in their last 2 finals.
Stadium Record
Sydney has lost 6 of their last 9 at the MCG and they have lost their last 3 Grand Finals since winning in 2012. Brisbane holds a 3-5 record in their last 8 at the 'G.
Head to Head Record
Brisbane have won the last 3 meetings in 2024 (Gabba), 2023 (Gabba) and 2022 (SCG). Since 1997, the Swans hold a 24-16 (1 draw) advantage against the Lions.
Best Bet
AFL Grand Final - Same Game Multi
1st Leg - Over 166.5 points
2nd Leg - Hugh McCluggage - anytime goalscorer
3rd Leg - Errol Gulden - 25+ disposals
Best Bet
AFL Grand Final - Anytime Goalscorer
Looking at value picks in the anytime goalscorer markets. Callum Ah Chee ($1.60) has kicked a goal in the Lions 3 finals this season and comes off 3 goals against the Cats. Also for the Lions, Hugh McCluggage ($2.30) has kicked 18 goals this season, including 3 against the Swans and 1 against the Cats last week. Jake Lloyd ($2.90) has kicked a goal in both finals for the Swans so he presents good value. James Rowbottom ($4.25) has kicked a goal in 2 of his last 3 games.
Best Bet
AFL Grand Final - Norm Smith
Isaac Heeney is the favourite and hard to back against. You figure if he plays well, the Swans will win. His finals performance against the Giants was epic with 3 goals and 30 touches. He backed it up against the Power too with 24 disposals and 2 goals. If the Lions win, Neale would likely be their best bet. He comes off 12 clearances against the Cats and he'll need to produce something similar against the Swans strong midfield. McCluggage could be a smokey if they win too, he dominated the Swans last time.
Best Bet
