2023 AFL Round 6 Betting Predictions
Round 6 begins with a rematch of last year's elimination final in Perth as the Dockers take on the Dogs.
Fremantle Dockers (11th) vs Western Bulldogs (14th)
The Dockers outlasted the Suns last weekend for a crucial 100-90 victory. The pleasing sign was their forward line showed the ability to kick a winning score as that has been a struggle in the first month of the season. So they will head home with confidence.
The Dogs had their 2-game winning streak ended by the Power in tough wet conditions during Gather round. But they'll have even more motivation to beat the Dockers after losing to them in the finals last season. However, Bailey Smith is still out with a calf injury.
This is a tough game to pick with both sides not in great form. So I like the form of Tom Liberatore in the Dogs midfield. He's hit 25+ disposals in 3 of 5 games this season. He's averaging a career-high 27 disposals per game in 2023 as well and it helps that Smith is out.
Stadium Record
Fremantle are 17-9 at this venue since 2021. The Bulldogs are 3-2 at the Optus Stadium since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 3-2 against the Dockers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Tom Liberatore - 25 Disposals = $1.70
Port Adelaide Power (9th) vs West Coast Eagles (17th)
The Power are looking for a 3rd straight win and will be heavy favourites against the struggling Eagles. Port have now beaten the Swans and Dogs in the last 2. Their backline has shown a lot of improvement since allowing 100+ pts in 2 of their first 3 games as they've only allowed 56 and 64 pts in the last 2 weeks.
The Eagles started well against the Cats last week but faded badly in the 2nd/3rd quarter. But that's kind of expected for a team with a lot of injuries and depth missing. They've now given up 100+ pts in 3 straight defeats and it probably won't improve against the Power.
Not a lot of value in this clash as the Power should win but whether they cover 47.5 pts is questionable since they haven't kicked a big score since Round 1. So I like the safe bet of Oscar Allen kicking 2 or more goals. He's kicked 2+ goals in all 5 games this season despite the Eagles struggles.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. West Coast are 1-3 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is tied at 3-3 since 2018.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (12th) vs Brisbane Lions (8th)
The Giants got back on track after 3 straight defeats with a thrilling 77-75 victory over the Hawks. Tom Green was excellent in his 50th game but he'll miss this clash with suspension.
The Lions forward line has come alive in this 2-game winning streak. They smashed the Roos in Gather round by scoring 152 pts and the likes of Daniher/Cameron are in great form.
Tom Green is a big out for the Giants midfield and their record in Canberra is also poor. Brisbane showed their potential last week and they should be able to win this by 4+ goals.
Stadium Record
GWS are 0-6 at Manuka Oval since 2021. Brisbane are 1-0 at this venue in their history.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Lions have won 4 games against the Giants.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (10th) vs Sydney Swans (5th)
The Cats have flexed their muscles against the Eagles and Hawks in back-to-back crushing wins. But they should get a more challenging matchup against Sydney. This will also be their first game in Geelong in 2023 and they'll be looking to repeat the GF performance of last season.
The Swans bounced back from 2 straight defeats with a 44-point thrashing of the Tigers in Adelaide. With plenty of injuries at the moment, it was a pleasing sign for Sydney. However, their depth will likely be tested against Geelong as the likes of Buddy/Rampe and the McCartin brothers are out.
Sydney's record in Geelong is very good so there's a fairly good chance they can get revenge for last year's Grand Final. But the Over does look like a good bet. It's 5-0 in the last 5 meetings and both sides can kick 100+ pts. Sydney's also missing plenty of experience in the backline that the Cats should take advantage of. Meanwhile, Sydney's forward line has Papley in great form and their young midfield can outrun the Cats.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 15-3 at GMHBA Stadium since 2021. Sydney has a nice 4-1 record in Geelong since 2016.
Head to Head Record
The Cats are 5-3 against the Swans since 2018 and smashed them in last year's Grand Final.
Best Bet
Hawthorn Hawks (18th) vs Adelaide Crows (7th)
The Hawks are sitting at the bottom of the ladder after a poor start to the season. However, it's all about rebuilding for them at the moment and this will be another challenge against the in-form Crows.
The Crows are red-hot after 3 straight wins. They smashed the Blues to start Gather round. Moving Dawson into the midfield has been an excellent move and their forward line is benefiting as they've kicked 100+ pts in this 3-game winning streak.
It's hard to see the Hawks midfield getting on top against the likes of Dawson and Laird. Adelaide are also one of the form sides in the AFL and they should be looking at this clash as a percentage booster for their top 8 hopes.
Stadium Record
Hawthorn are 5-2 in their last 7. Adelaide are 1-5 in their history at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 6, the Hawks hold a 4-2 record.
Best Bet
Carlton Blues (4th) vs St Kilda Saints (1st)
The Blues are coming off their first loss of the season as they were outclassed by the Crows 118-62. Injuries in their backline haven't helped as the likes of Docherty and McGovern were out. So that will be an area of focus against the Saints.
The Saints undefeated season ended on Sunday but they wouldn't be too disappointed about a 6-point loss against the Pies. They should also be boosted by the return of skipper Jack Steele and his likely midfield matchup with Cripps will be a key factor in this game.
With Steele expected back, the Saints can win this one. Their improved defence will be the key against Curnow/McKay. Meanwhile, the Blues are missing Docherty in their backline.
Stadium Record
Carlton are 10-6 at Marvel Stadium since 2021. St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Saints are 4-2 against the Blues.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Suns (16th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (13th)
The Suns are just 1-4 to start the 2023 season but they get a winnable game against the Roos on their home turf. They beat the Cats at this venue a few weeks ago so they should be eager for a similar result.
The Roos are coming off 3 straight defeats and their record in Queensland isn't good either. However, they'll be celebrating Goldstein's 300th game and that should give them extra motivation for a win.
The Under is 5-0 in this matchup and the Suns did keep the Cats to just 54 pts in their last home game.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 6-4 in their last 10 at home. North are looking to avoid an 8th straight defeat on the GC.
Head to Head Record
The Suns are 4-1 against the Kangaroos in the last 5.
Best Bet
Melbourne Demons (6th) vs Richmond Tigers (15th)
The Dees were poor against the Bombers in Gather round as they went down 104-77. However, they love playing in his traditional pre-Anzac Day clash against the Tigers as they've won the last 2.
The Tigers are struggling at the moment after 3 straight losses and injuries are the story. They're without the likes of Nank, Short and Tom Lynch. That showed last week in a 44-point loss against the young Swans in Adelaide.
Expect a response from the Tigers after last week but their injury list looks like this will be a challenge. The Dees won't be happy about last week and will come out firing.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 4-6 in their last 10 games at the MCG. Richmond are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 3-2 against the Demons in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Collingwood Magpies (3rd) vs Essendon Bombers (2nd)
The Pies bounced back from a loss in Brisbane with a great win over the Saints on Sunday night. Nick Daicos just continues to impress as he comes off 42 touches and Bobby Hill kicked 3 goals in another good performance for his new side.
The Bombers are coming off easily their best win of the season as they downed the Dees by 27 pts. They're now 4-1 and sitting nicely in the top 4. So they're in good enough form to cause a massive boilover on Anzac Day.
Essendon will come into Anzac Day with confidence after beating the Demons and I can see this being a close battle. The Bombers are also 6-1 ATS against the Pies and last year's Anzac Day clash was an 11-point margin.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Essendon are 2-8 in their last 10 games at the MCG.
Head to Head Record
The Magpies are 6-3 against the Bombers since 2018.
Best Bet
