2023 AFL Round 5 Betting Predictions
Round 5 will feature all 18 teams in Adelaide for Gather round and it all starts with a top 8 battle between the Crows and Blues on Thursday night footy.
Adelaide Crows (7th) vs Carlton Blues (2nd)
The Crows are in the top 8 after back-to-back wins over the Power and Dockers at the Adelaide Oval. Taylor Walker and Izak Rankine were dangerous in the forward line with 7 combined goals last week. They've now kicked 100+ pts in 2 straight and rank 3rd in the AFL for goals per game.
The Blues outlasted the Roos on Good Friday for their 3rd straight win and they remain undefeated in 2023. Curnow and McKay were back to their best in the forward line with 10 goals between them. However, they will miss Docherty for 4-6 weeks due to a knee injury.
Adelaide have a great record against the Blues at home (6-0) and their forward line looks dangerous. The Blues will likely miss Docherty in their backline as well.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 5-5 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Carlton are yet to win at this venue in 6 attempts.
Head to Head Record
The Blues are 3-2 against the Crows in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Fremantle Dockers (14th) vs Gold Coast Suns (17th)
The Dockers poor start to 2023 continued on the weekend as they went down to the Crows 111-72. They will benefit from no travel this week but their forward line just needs to improve. They're averaging just 10 goals per game and will now miss Tabener with an injury.
The Suns were outplayed by the Saints last week and now sit at 1-3 after the first month. They're simply not getting done at either end as they're 16th for goals scored and 4th for goals against.
Both teams are struggling at the moment so I like the chances of a low-scoring affair. The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings too.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Suns are 3-2 against the Dockers.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (12th) vs Sydney Swans (6th)
The Tigers sluggish start to the new season continues as they were run down by the Dogs last week in the 89-84 loss. To make matters worse, Tom Lynch and Nankervis are both out with injuries.
The Swans also collapsed after leading against the Power in a disappointing 66-64 defeat at the SCG. Their forward line has struggled in back-to-back losses after being held under 90 points. Buddy Franklin will be out for this clash so it'll be interesting to see if it improves.
Richmond will likely miss Toby Nankervis and Tom Lynch. So it's hard to back against a Sydney victory.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 2-2 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021. Sydney holds a 5-5 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 3-2 against the Swans in the last 5.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions (8th) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (9th)
The Lions are coming off an excellent win over the Pies at the Gabba 116-83. They're now 2-0 at the Gabba but haven't won away from Brisbane yet. So that will be their key motivation against the Roos.
The Roos are looking to bounce back after 2 straight defeats against the Hawks and the Blues. However, they would be loving the form of rising star Harry Sheezel as he comes off 30+ disposals in 3 of his first 4 games.
Brisbane hasn't travelled well this season and the underdog is 7-1 ATS so take the Roos to cover.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Lions are 5-2 against the Kangaroos.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (4th) vs Melbourne Demons (3rd)
The Bombers have had a fantastic start to 2023 after 3 wins in their 4 games. They were wildly inaccurate against the Giants last week so they'll be looking to improve their conversion rate against the Dees. But it was pleasing to see Jake Stringer back in form with 4 goals (6 behinds).
The Dees got the job done against the reeling Eagles with a 63-point thrashing. They've now won 3 of their games by 50+ margins and the likes of Oliver / Petracca are in great form.
If the Bombers can kick straight, they should be able to get within 3 goals of the Dees, especially with wet weather predicted for Saturday.
Stadium Record
Essendon has won 4 of their last 7 in Adelaide. Melbourne are 4-1 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Demons have won 4 games against the Bombers.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide Power (10th) vs Western Bulldogs (11th)
The Power bounced back from a disappointing Showdown loss with a thrilling victory over the Swans in Sydney. The 66-64 result now sees them move to 2-2 and they'll be favoured to make it 2 straight on their home turf in Gather round.
The Dogs rallied to beat the Tigers by 5 points on a wet Saturday afternoon for their 2nd straight victory. Naughton (3 goals), Dale (30 disposals) and Tim English (9 tackles) were among the best on the field for the Dogs.
Rain is predicted for this night time clash and both sides haven't kicked over 90 pts in their last 3 games so take the Under.
Stadium Record
Port Adelaide are 7-3 in their last 10 games at the Adelaide Oval. Since 2021, the Bulldogs have a 2-1 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is tied at 3-3 since 2019.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (13th) vs West Coast Eagles (16th)
The Cats are on the board in 2023 after thrashing the Hawks on Easter Monday by 82 pts. Mitch Duncan returned from injury with 31 touches and Cameron was unstoppable up forward with 7 goals. They now get another favourable matchup against the struggling Eagles.
The Eagles have plenty of injuries at the moment and come off a 63 pt loss against the Dees in Perth. It probably won't get much better against the Cats either. However, Tim Kelly comes off a brilliant 36-disposal performance and should be fired up against his former team.
This could get ugly for the undermanned Eagles and the Cats will be looking to boost their percentage after an 0-3 start.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 2-2 at this venue since 2021. West Coast are 1-2 at the Adelaide Oval since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Cats are 5-2 against the Eagles.
Best Bet
GWS Giants (15th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (18th)
The Giants will be looking to end a 3-game losing streak in this one. They've been close in most of their losses so they should go into this clash with a bit of confidence. Josh Kelly and Tom Green should be the key through the midfield.
The Hawks will look to respond after getting smashed by the Cats on Easter Monday 127-45. They've struggled in the first month of the season and it won't get easier with Will Day out suspended.
GWS have a good record in Adelaide and should be able to beat the young Hawks through their midfield.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Hawks are 3-2 against the Giants in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney -15.5 = $1.90
Collingwood Magpies (5th) vs St Kilda Saints (1st)
The Pies undefeated start to the season ended on Thursday as they were outplayed by the Lions at the Gabba. However, they have a good record against the Saints recently and have won 5 straight at the Adelaide Oval.
The Saints are flying after a 4-0 start to 2023 and their defence just continues to impress. They've allowed just 7.8 goals per game. However, it's fair to say they haven't played a top 4 calibre side and this will be a lot tougher.
The total looks a bit low for this clash considering both sides can kick 80+ pts. The Pies have kicked 80+ pts in 3 of 4 games and the Saints have scored 90+ in 3 straight.
Stadium Record
Collingwood are looking for a 6th straight win at the Adelaide Oval. St. Kilda has lost 11 of their last 14 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Magpies hold a 4-1 record against the Saints.
Best Bet
