2023 AFL Round 4 Betting Predictions
Round 4 has some cracking matchups coming up over the Easter weekend, starting with the undefeated Pies taking on the struggling Lions at the Gabba.
Brisbane Lions (14th) vs Collingwood Magpies (2nd)
The Lions have had a poor start to 2023 after a 1-2 start that includes losses against the Power/Dogs. However, they did beat the Dees at the Gabba in Round 2 and will need a similar performance against the Pies.
The Pies are undefeated in 2023 after an impressive start to the season. They've beaten the Cats, Power and come off a 63-49 win over the Tigers last week. They're 2nd in the league for goals scored and should also enjoy facing a struggling Lions team.
This is a tough game to pick with the Pies in great form but the Lions did beat the Dees at the Gabba a few weeks ago. However, a high-scoring game in Brisbane should be a good play. The Over has saluted in 6 of the last 7 games at the Gabba.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the Gabba. Collingwood have lost 4 straight at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Lions are 4-3 against the Magpies since 2018.
Best Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos (7th) vs Carlton Blues (3rd)
The Roos are coming off their first loss of the season after an 80-61 result in Tassie. However, they were missing two of their best midfielders - Simpkin out suspended and Luke Davies-Uniacke a late out. Simpkin will be back this week and they'll be hoping LDU can recover for this important clash.
The Blues are coming off 2 straight wins over the Cats and the Giants. Cripps (42 touches) and Docherty (39 touches / 10 marks) were the standouts on the weekend as they beat GWS in Sydney by 10 pts.
Cripps looked back to his best last week racking up 42 disposals and the Roos should be another good matchup. Crippa also got 35 touches against them last year.
Stadium Record
North Melbourne are 3-16 at the Marvel Stadium since 2021. Carlton are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Kangaroos are 3-2 against the Blues in the last 5.
Best Bet
Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals = $1.75
Adelaide Crows (11th) vs Fremantle Dockers (9th)
The Crows got up over the Power in the Showdown 117-86. After struggling to kick straight in their first 2 losses, Adelaide got back on track with 18 goals against Port. Rankine and Thilthorpe dominated with 9 combined goals.
The Dockers broke through for their first win of the season after beating the Eagles by 41 pts in the Derby. Their forward line was back to its best with 16 goals and Sean Darcy (52 hit outs) / Caleb Serong (35 touches / 8 tackles) were among the best for Freo.
Both sides won their respective derbies last week and the last few meetings have been close encounters. However, the Crows forward line showed its potential last week and that should be the difference against Freo.
Stadium Record
Adelaide are 3-2 in their last 5 games at the Adelaide Oval. Since 2021, Fremantle have a 2-1 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Dockers have won 4 games against the Crows.
Best Bet
Richmond Tigers (8th) vs Western Bulldogs (16th)
The Tigers will be looking to respond after struggling against the Pies on Friday night in Round 3. However, injuries haven't helped their cause as Short, Martin and Hooper are out at the moment.
The Dogs are coming off a great win over the Lions on Thursday night footy. Ugle-Hagan stood up after a tough week with an impressive 5-goal performance and the likes of the Bont/Macrae dominated in the midfield.
Both sides are fairly similar so this should be a tough game to pick. So I like the chances of Macrae getting 30+. He likes playing Richmond (34 disposals last year) and they're not known for tagging.
Stadium Record
Richmond are 8-2 in their last 10 games at the MCG. In their last 5 games at the MCG, the Bulldogs hold a 2-3 record.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Tigers hold a 4-1 record against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Jack Macrae 30+ Disposals = $1.75
St Kilda Saints (1st) vs Gold Coast Suns (15th)
The Saints are sitting nicely atop the AFL ladder after an undefeated start to 2023. They celebrated 150 years with a thrilling 92-74 victory over the Bombers last week. Ross Lyon has brought back the defensive dominance to the Saints already as they're conceding just 7 goals per game.
The Suns come off their best performance of the season as they downed the Cats on the Gold Coast. They stood up in David Swallow's 200th game, highlighted by a Jack Lukosius 5-goal haul. Can they back it up in Melbourne is the question.
St Kilda are proving to be a tough team to score against and I see that continuing on Saturday. The Under has also saluted in 7 of the last 8 meetings.
Stadium Record
St Kilda are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Marvel Stadium. Gold Coast are 3-6 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Saints are 6-0 against the Suns.
Best Bet
Sydney Swans (5th) vs Port Adelaide Power (13th)
The Swans first loss of the season came last week as they outplayed by the Dees at the MCG in the 50-point defeat. However, they'll be confident of bouncing back at the SCG against a struggling Power side and they smashed the Hawks at this venue in Round 2.
The Power are coming off back-to-back disappointing losses against the Pies (71 pts) and the Crows (31 pts). One of the main concerns at the moment is their backline that's giving up an AFL-worst 16 goals per game. That will need to improve against the Swans in Sydney.
Sydney will likely come out firing at the SCG but their record against Port isn't great. However, Port are now 8-0 against the Over and this should be another high-scoring affair.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the SCG, Sydney holds a 9-1 record. Port are 2-7 in their last 9 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Power are 5-0 against the Swans.
Best Bet
Essendon Bombers (6th) vs GWS Giants (10th)
The Bombers will look to get back on track against the Giants after losing to the Saints last week. They started slowly after conceding 5 goals in the first quarter and just couldn't recover. Darcy Parish (35 touches) and Jordan Ridley (11 marks) were impressive in the loss.
The Giants travel to Melbourne after a close loss against the Blues in Sydney last week. They'll be disappointed about a few umpiring decisions in the defeat but will need to bounce back against the Bombers.
GWS are 6-0 ATS as an underdog against Essendon and should be able to keep the margin under 2 goals.
Stadium Record
Since 2021, Essendon have an 11-5 record at this venue. GWS are 3-2 in their last 5 games at Marvel.
Head to Head Record
The Giants are 5-2 against the Bombers since 2018.
Best Bet
Greater Western Sydney +12.5 = $1.90
West Coast Eagles (12th) vs Melbourne Demons (4th)
The Eagles not only lost the Derby but their injury list took a massive hit. Shuey, McGovern, Ryan, Cheeser and Cripps all suffered injuries in the defeat. So there will be some massive changes for this clash and it's going to be a tough ask.
The Demons thrashed the Swans at the MCG by 50 pts last week in a statement victory. Their forward line looks much improved in 2023 after kicking a league-best 17 goals per game in the first 3 rounds. Grundy also filled the #1 ruck role nicely with Gawn on the sidelines.
This has blowout written all over it as the Eagles are just missing too much experience. The Dees also love playing in Perth and smashed Sydney by 50 pts last week.
Stadium Record
West Coast are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Optus Stadium. Since 2021, Melbourne have a 5-0 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Eagles are 3-2 against the Demons in the last 5.
Best Bet
Geelong Cats (18th) vs Hawthorn Hawks (17th)
The Cats are suffering a premiership hangover after 3 straight defeats to start 2023. They've lost against the Pies, Blues and the Suns on the Gold Coast last week. The early return of Tom Stewart was a positive against the Suns but their forward line needs to improve in this clash.
The Hawks got their first win of the season as they beat the Clarkson-led Roos in Tassie. Their backline showed improvement after conceding plenty of points in the first 2 rounds and Brockman showed his potential up forward with 3 goals.
Geelong are hard to trust at the moment and they did lose on Easter Monday against the Hawks last year. Hawks to keep it under 5 goals.
Stadium Record
Geelong are 12-3 at the MCG since 2021. Hawthorn are 5-11 at this venue since 2021.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Hawks are 4-3 against the Cats.
Best Bet
